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FAIRBANKS NORTH STARBOROUGH BOX 267, Fairbanks, ALaska 99707 IMPACT INFORMATION CENTER - SPECIAL REPORT NO. 5 MARCH 1977 ENERGY COSTS, CONSUMPTION AND IMPACTS IN FAIRBANKS by Sue Fison, Director IMPACT INFORMATION CENTER Don Moore, Director ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT Cindy Quisenberry, Information Assistant IMPACT INFORMATION CENTER Prepared for the TOWN MEETING CONTENTS ON Page ENERGY March 26, 1977 Introduction 1 I. Energy Consumption Overview, 3 1970-1975 II. Transportation Related Energy 15 Consumption III. Energy Cost Comparisons 23 IV. Consumer Guide to Home Heating, 33 Electricity and Vehicle Costs V. Electric Utilities in Fairbanks 41 VI. Effects of Energy Consumption 57 on Air Quality Publication costs for this report were provided by the Impact Information Center, Environmental Services Department and the Alaska Humanities Forum The Impact Information BOROUGH MAYOR Center Report is published John A. Carlson on the third Wednesday each month by the Fairbanks North IMPACT.ADVISORY COMMITTEE Star Borough, P.O. Box 1267, Larry Carpenter James C. Thomas Fairbanks, Alaska. Applica- David Crockett Jeanne Wilson tion to mail at controlled Sue Gamache George Wise, circulation rates is pending Leslye KorVola Chairperson at Fairbanks, Alaska. Charles Parr Phil Younker ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the following persons for their contributions to the preparation of this report: Dr. Carl Benson, Dr. Sue Ann Bowling, Bob Burg, Axel Carlsonj.Carole Demers, Mim Dixon, Wendy Harris, Mike Kelly, Sandy LaGrone, and Cindy Lippincott. Special thanks to Rich Seifert who suggested and encouraged the preparation of this special report as part of the Town Meet- ing on Energy. SUMMARY OF TABLES AND FIGURES Page CHAPTER I ENERGY CONSUMPTION OVERVIEW, 1970-1975 Figure I Fuel Oil Consumption, In Millions of 4 Gallons,, Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1970, 1973 and 1975 Table 1 Fuel Oil Consumption, Fairbanks North 5 Star Borough, 1970, 1973 and 1975 Figure 2 Heating Oil Consumption, Fairbanks 7 North 'Star Borough, 1970-1975 Table 2 - Heating Oil Consumption, Fairbanks 7 North Star Borough, 1970-1975 Figure 3 - Gasoline Consumption in Thousands of 8. Gallons, Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1970-1975 Table 3 - Gasoline Consumption in Thousands of 8 Gallons, Fairbanks North Star, Borough, 1970-1975 Figure 4 Coal Consumption, in Thousands of Tons, 9 Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1967-1975 Table 4 - Coal Consumed to Generate Electric Power, 9 Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1975 Table 5 - Electricity Transmitted to Fairbanks from 10. GVEA Healy Power Plant, 1968-1975 Figure 5 Total Energy Use, in Millions of Kilowatt 12 Hours, Fairbanks North Star.Borough, 1970, 1973 and 1975 Table 6 Total Energy Use, in Millions of Kilowatt 13 Hours, Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1970, 1973 and 1975 Figure 6 Per Capita Energy Use, in Kilowatts, 14 Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1971 and 1975 Pla R e CHAPTER II TRANSPORTATION RELATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION Table 7 - Population and Vehicle Registrations,, 15 Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1970, 1973 and 1976 Table 8 - Motor Vehicle Registrations, Fairbanks 16 and Anchorage, 1970-1976 Figure 7 Motor Vehicle Registrations, 17 Fairbanks, Alaska, 1970-1976 Figure 8 Motor Vehicle Traffic, Fairbanks 18 Metropolitan Area, 1973-1976 Table 9 Airport Activity, Fairbanks International 19 Airport, 1973-1976 Figure 9 Airport Activity, Fairbanks International 20 Airport, 1973-1976 CHAPTER III ENERGY COST COMPARISONS Table 10 Heating Oil Prices Per Gallon, Fairbanks, 24 Alaska, 1974, 1975and 1976 Table-11 Heating Oil Prices Per Gallon, Fairbanks, 25 Anchorage and Seattle, November 1976 Figure 11 Heating Oil and Propane Prices Per Gallon, 26 Fairbanks, Anchorage,.Juneau and Seattle, Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 Table 12 Propane Prices Per Gallon, Fairbanks 26 and Anchorage, Fall 1976 Table 13 Electrical Rates, Fairbanks, Anchorage, 28-29 Juneau and Seattle, Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 Table 14 Natural Gas Rates., Anchorage and, 29 Seattle, Fall 1973-and Fall 1976 Figure 12 Cost Comparisons for 1,000 KWH of 30 Electricity, Fairbanks, Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle, Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 Page Table 15 Coal Costs, Usibelli Coal Mines, Inc. 32 Fairbanks, 1973 and 1976 CHAPTER IV CONSUMER GUIDE TO HOME HEATING, ELECTRICITY AND VEHICLE COSTS Table 16 - Estimated Annual Fuel Requirements and 34 Heating Costs for a Typical House; Fairbanks, Anchorage and Seattle, 1913 and 1976 Figure 13 Estimated Annual Heating Costs for a Typical House; Coal, Electricity, Fuel Oil and Propane, Fairbanks, Alaska,, Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 Figure 14 Estimated Annual Fuel Oil Heating Costs 37 fora Typical House; Fairbanks, Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle, Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 .Table 17 Esti,nated Annual Electrical Consumption, 38 Electrical Appliances Table 18 Estimated Vehicle Ownership Costs, 40 Fairbanks, 1977 CHAPTER V ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN FAIRBANKS Table 19 Generating Capacity, MUS Electrical 41 Department, Fairbanks, Alaska, March 1977 Figure 15 - Fuels for Power Generation, MUS Electrical 42 Department, Fairbanks, Alaska,.1970 and 1976 Table 20 - Generating Capacity,@Golden,Valley Electric 43 Assocaition, Fairbanks, Alaska, March 1977 Figure 16 -.Fuels for Power Generation., Golden Valley 43 Electric Association, Fairbanks,, Alaska, 1970 and 1976 Figure 17 Kilowatt Hours (KWH) of Electricity Sold, 44 Golden Valley Electric Association, Fairbanks, Alaska, 1965-1976 PaRe Figure 18 Residential and Commercial Customers, 45 Golden Valley Electric Association, Fairbanks, Alaska, 1970-1976 Table 21 Electrical Customers9 Fairbanks Municipal 46 Utilities System, 1970-1976 Figure 19 Generating Capacity and Peak Electrical 48 Demand, Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System (in Megawatts), 1970-1976 Figure 20 - Generating Capacity and Peak Electrical 49 Demand, Golden Valley Electric Association, (in Kilowatts), 1970-1976 Figure 21 Average Electrical Cost to Member Per 54 Kilowatt Hour, Golden Valley Electric Association, 1965-1976 CHAPTER VI THE EFFECTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON AIR QUALITY Figure 22 - Carbon Monoxide Pollution, Fairbanks Down- 60 town Post Office, Fiscal Years 1973-1976 Table 22 - Air Qu4lity Summary,-Fairbanks North Star 61 Borough, 1973-1976 Figure 23 - Particulate Pollution Counts, Selected 62 Fairbanks Locations, 1975 Figure 24 - Suspended Particulates, Fairbanks North 63 Star Borough, 1971-1975 'Table 23 Survey of Carbon Monoxide (CO) Pollution, 65 Downtown Fairbanks Parking@Lots, ,January 1976 Figure 25 - Vehicle Cold Start Emissions, Fairbanks, 67 Alaska, January 1975 Figure 26 Energy Consumption and Air Pollution, 68 for Different Development Patterns INTRODUCTION The trans Alaska oil pipeline was built in response to energy needs. While the pipeline may help to solve some global energy problems, it has created many.changes related to the cost and consumption of energy in the Fairbanks area. Some of these changes are directly related to pipeline construction, such as theincreased air and highway activities to transport materials and persons needed in the pipeline construction project. Other changes arie related to the population growth and commercial growth in Fairbanks which have resulted from pipeline construction and associated activities. More people has meant more automobiles and more houses and more commercial establishments, which in turn have meant a greater consumption of energy. Increased consumption of energy has been accompanied by changes in the types of energy consumed and changes in costs. Use of fossil fuels requires combustion creating by-products which con- taminate the air. And, thus the increase in energy consumption in Fairbanks ultimately has ramifications on air quality. As part of its progress since 1974, the Fairbanks North Star Borough Impact Information Center has monitored the effects of the trans Alaska oil pipeline on the Fairbanks area, including effects related to energy. Regular reports of the Impact Information Center have consid2red heating oil.prices and heating costs (Reports 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 22, 31, and 32), demands and responses on public utilities electrical services (Reports 1, 2, 18, 23, 25), utility rates and energy costs (Report 31), vehicle traffic in the Fairbanks metropolitan area (Reports 2, 5, 7, 12, 14, 17-20, 23-33), increases in motor vehicle registrations (Reports 3, 12, 19,34), freight and freight rates (Reports 4,13, 15), air transportation activities (Reports 1, 6, 17, 18, 19, 20, 23, 24, 26, 28, 31, 34), motor fuel consumption (Reports 11, 12, 34), air quality (Reports 8, 9, 13, 22-25), and other aspects which relate to energy in Fairbanks. The Town Meeting on Energy, March 26, 1977, provided the incen- tive to pull together the diverse information about energy in Fairbanks collected by the Impact Information Center and to collect -additional data to provide a more comprehensive Picture. The relationship between energy and the construction of the trans Alaska oil pipeline suggests a variety of topics, including rate of consump- tion, causes of changes in consumption patterns, costs of energy, and air quality. To adequately cover these topics, the Impact Center joined forces with the Environmental Services Department of the Fairbanks North Star Borough and enlisted the aid of a variety of researchers. The following report on changes in energy consumption, costs, and air quality represents a cooperative effort of many interested persons and organizations. Chapter I ENERGY CONSUMPTION OVERVIEW, 1970-1975 Introduction Fuel in Fairbanks comes from four primary sources: fuel oil, gasoline, coal and electricity imported from Healy. This chapter summarizes recent trends in.the consumption of each of these energy sources in the Fairbanks North Star Borough. Most of the quantitative data were provided by Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, of the Geophysical Institute, who are compiling this data for a study funded by the Borough Environmental Services Department and the Environmental Protection Agency. This study will attempt to measure the quantities and types of fuels being burned in the Borough to estimate the emissions from fuels into the surrounding air. This inventory is a key componen t in a comprehensive study of air quality. For a discus- sion of the effects of energy consumption on-air quality in Fairbanks, see Chapter VI. Fuel Oil In 1975 about 46 million gallons of fuel oil were consumed in the Fairbanks area. This is a 156 percent increase over the 1970 total of 18 million gallons. Fuel oil has three primary uses in Fairbanks: 1) ,as a diesel motor fuel, 2) for the generation of electricity, and 3) heat homes and buildings. The consumption of these types of fuel oil for 1970, 1973 and 1975 is summarized in Figure I and Table 1. Diesel Fuel - The consumption of diesel fuel, which is used pri- marily for trucks and heavy equipment, has fluctuated widely in recent years as.a result of construction of the trans Alaska oil pipeline. In 1970, due to truck transport of materials to the North Slope over ,the "ice road," diesel fuel consumption in the Fairbanks area was an estimated 5.4 million gallons. However, when pipeline construction was delayed until 1974, slowdown in trucking activity dropped diesel consumption to 2.9 million gallons in 1973. With completion of the North Slope Haul Road, pipeline freight trucking escalated consumption of diesel fuel in Fairbanks to 10.7 million gallons in 1975. Electricity Generation - The use of@fuel oil to generate electric power has increased dramatically in Fairbanks from only 1.3 million gallons in 1970 to 11.8 million gallons in 1975. Nearly all of this increase may be attributed to consumption by Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA). Most of the recent development in Fairbanks has occurred in areas in which electric service(is provided only by GVEA. As a result of this residential and commercial growth, GVEA's coal- fired Healy generating plant was insufficient to meet the demand for 3 Figure 1 FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION In Millions of GAllons Fairbanks North Star Borough 1970, 1973 and 1975 20 I q-7 0 E3 1q-73 0 1 q7 57 VA 77- 4441 ELEc-TRiCiTY HEATWG- FUEL- FRODor-TIC)m 01 t- .Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, UA 'Geophysical Institute Table 1 FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION Fairbanks North Star Borough 1970, 1973 and 1975 -------------------- In Thousands of Gallovs -------------------- Motor Reating --- Fuel Oil for Power Generation --- Fuel Oil Military MUS GVEA Sub-Total Total 1970 Jan. 107 1,768 8 216 0 224 2,099 Feb. 172 1,473 17 104 11 132 1,777 Mar. '334 1,061 4 77 6 87 1,482 Apr. 640 951 17 .64 11 92 1,683 May 427 487 4 42 44 90 1,004 June 527 427 32 163 199 1,153 July 516 346 4 30 51 85 947 Aug. 575 579 4 46 11 61 1,215 Sept. 675 725 4 42 16 62 1,462 Oct. 482 845 4 3 26 33 1,360 Nov. 386 1,224 4 7 59 70 1,680 Dec. 552 1,715 147 17 33 197 2,464 Total. 5,395 11,601 221 680 431 LIL2 _18,328 1973 Jan. 224 2,591 8 33 1,053 1,094 3.909 Feb. 83 1,854 8 9 525 542 2,479 Mar. 60 1,485 8 10 640 658 1,545. Apr. 66 1;001 8 6 44 58 1,125 May 273 715 8 4 5 17 1,005 June 360 422 8 3 9 20 802 July 420 466 13 128 13 154 1,040 Aug. 443 688 8 109 22 139 1,270 Sept. 364 806 13 12 315 340 1,510 Oct. 326 1,372 8 0 398 406 2,104 Nov. 153 1,933 13 15 619 647 2,733 Dec. 159 2,278 8 101 585 694 3,131 Total 2,927 .15,610 113 430 4,227 4,770 23,307 1975 Jan. 456 3,391 54 104 1,686 1,844 5,691 Feb. 598 2,572 19 46 1,008 1,073 4,243 Mar. 850 2,018 22 12 1,069 1,103 3,971 Apr. 872 1,769 17 66 485 568 3,209 May 802 927 0 8 467 475 2,204 June 928 925 0 4 88 92 1,945 July 792 803 0 i 89 91 1,686 Aug. 993 992 0 5 474 479 2,464 Sept. 1,156 1,443 24 4 829 857 3,456 Oct. 1,199 2,105 24 23 1,159 1,206 4,510 Nov. 1,253 3,284 36 24 2,018 2,078 6,615 Dec. 797 3,322 41 89 1,781 1,911 6,030 Total 10,684 23,550 237 385 11,152 11,774 46,008 Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute electricity. GVEA has relied increasingly upon power generated by fuel oil. Only 5 percent of the fuel oil used to generate electricity in 1975 was consumed by the Municipal Utilities System (MUS) and Fort Wainwright, with the remaining 95 percent consumed by GVEA. Heating Oil - Except during the summer months, heating oil is the largest component of fuel oil consumption in Fairbanks. Whereas con- sumption of diesel fuel has fluctuated widely due to changes in trans- portation activity, the consumption of heating oil, which is tied primarily to population levels, has shown steady increase; As Figure 2 illus,trates, the consumption of heating fuel in Fairbanks follows a seasonal cycle of very low consumption in summer and very high con- sumption in winter. Between 1970 and 1973 heating oil consumption in Fairbanks grew at an average annual rate of about 9 percent. Popula- tion growth associated with pipeline construction caused the use of heating oil to increase at an average annual rate of about 23 percent during 1974 and 1975. Gasoline Between 1970 and 1973 gasoline consumption in Fairbanks averaged 16 to 17 million gallons per year and increased only 5 percent during the four-year period. However, the pipeline boom which was accompanied by increases in population, vehicles, traffic and air transportation activity caused the consumption of gasoline to increase to 31.4 million gallons in 1975, 85 percent more than the 17 million gallons consumed in 1973. For information on increases in air transportation activity, vehicle traffic, and motor vehicle registrations see Chapter In contrast to fuel oil consumption, Figure 3 shows that the use of gasoline,peaks in the summer months. Coal Fairbanks is the only large city in Alaska which relies on coal as a major energy source. Coal is transported to Fairbanks from mines in Healy via the Alaska Railroad. GVEA used to operate a coal-fired generator in Fairbanks; however, it was'closed when GVEA's Healy plant became fully operational in 1968. As Figure 4 shows, in contrast to major increases in the use of fuel oil and gasoline, coal consump- tion has remained virtually unchanged in recent years. In 1967 394,000 tons of coal were consumed in Fairbanks, compared to 393,000 tons in 1975, a difference of less than 1 percent. Ninety percent of the coal transported to Fairbanks in 1975 was used to generate elect- ric power with 34 percent consumed by the MUS, 9 percent by the Uni- versity of Alaska and 54 percent by Ft. Wainwright.. The remaining 4 percent of the coal was used for home heating. Data on monthly coal consumption for the generation of electric power is given in Table 4. Figure 2 HEATING OIL CONSUMPTION Fairbanks North Star Borough 1970 1975 i cl-7 o q -7,2_ jq-75 .19-1,.+ lq-75- Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, US Geophysical Institute Table 2 HEATING-OIL CONSUMPTION Fairbanks North Star Borough. 1970 - 1975 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 January 1,768 2,006 1,910 2,591 2,549 3,391 February 1,473 1,797 - 1,681 1,854 2,638 2,572 March 1,061 1,426 1,473 1,485 1,908 2,018 April 951 1,071 1,064 1,001 1,235 1,769 may 487 769 623 715 716 927 June 427 276 397 422 658- 925 July 346 237 346 466 590 803 August 579 489 451 688 917 992 September 725 655 820 806 1,004 1,443 October 845 811 1,064 1,372 1,782 2,105 November 1,224 1,468 1,565 1,933 2,106 3,284 December 1,715 1,946 1,671 2,278 2,585 3,322 Total 11,601 12,951 13,065 15,610 182688 23,550 Monthly Ave. 967 1,079 1,089 1,301 1,557 1,963 Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute 7 Figure 3 GASOLINE CONSUMPTION In Thousands of Gallons 0 Fairbanks North Star Borough 0 1970 1975 3000- 44 0 2000- co 0 1000- or e e -ar 19-10 1 cri 1 1 19-72- 11 19-7:3 11 19 -7 Lt 11 19-76- Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute Table 3 GASOLINE CONSUMPTION In Thousands of Gallons Fairbanks North Star Borough 1970 - 1975 -1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 January 1,183 1,239 1,218 1,092 1,295 1,468 February 1,016 938 1,118 760 1,263 1,565 March 1,216 1,147 1,242 1,180 1,158 2,001 April 1,307 1,192 1,188 1,243 1,329 2,289 May 1,253 1,177 1,184 1,414 1,493 2,370 June 1,667 1,496 1,513 1,407 1,690 2,979 July 1,736 1,652 1,816 1,762 1,859 3.,234 August 1,616 1,715 2,097 1,642 2,021 3,284 September 1,657 1,738 1,795 1,735 1,800 3,235 October 1,291 1,295. 1,388 1,357 1,548 3,230 November 1,053 1,183 1,210 1,417 1,519 3,167 December 1,171 1,312 1,265 1,485 1,416 2,590 Total 16,167 16,084 17,095 16,976 18,391 31,406 Monthly Ave. 1,347 1,340 1,425, 1,415 533 2,617 Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute 8 Figure 4 COAL CONSUMPTION "In Thousands of Tons Fairbanks North Star Borough 1967 1975 400 - TO@TAL 300 - 44 0, Power Plant 200 Use 0 100 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Table 4 COAL CONSUMED TO GENEFATE ELECTRIC POWER Fairbanks North Star Borough 1975 ------------ In Thousands of Tons ------------- University Ft. M TS L of Alaska @Wainwright Total January 13.1 4.4 27.6 45.1 February 11.4 3.7 24.7 39.9 March 11.9 3.5 21.6 37.0 April 10.0 2.6 16.0 28.7 May 9.5 1.8 14.8 26.2 June 9.2 1.5 11.6 22.3 July 8.9 1.4 9.2 19.5 August 8.5 1.4 10.4 20.3 September 9.1 3.4 13.9 26.4. October 11.1 4.1@ 14.3 -29.6 November 13.7 4.0 21.1 38.8 December 15.7 4.2 25.3 45.1 .Total.. -132.3 36.0 210.6 378.9 Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, US Geophysical Institute Electricity Imported. from Healy Electricity is imported to Fairbanks from GVEA's power plant adjacent to the coal mine at Healy. A summary of kilowatt hours (kwh) of electricity imported from Healy since the plant opened in February 1968 are given in Table 5. The amount of electricity imported from Healy increased 39-percent from 140 million kwh in 1970 to 194 million kwh in 1974. By 1975, increased demand for GVEA's electricity kept the Healy plant operating near capacity the entire year, thus keeping the amount of electricity imported from Healy constant. The potential for building another power plant at Healy increasing the amount of electricity imported will be discussed in Chapter Table 5 ELECTRICITY TRANSMITTED TO FAIRBANKS FROM GVEA HEALY POWER PLANT 1968 - 1975 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Jan. 0 6.4 16.3 16.2 17.0 17.3 17.3 18.6 Feb. 4.2 6.3 12.6 15.4 11.3 15.1 16.2 16.8 Mar. 6.6 6.2 13.0 16.9 14.4 9.8 16.4 18.4 Apr. 6.2 5.8 11.0 @14.2 15.9 14.8 12.3 17.1 May 3.2 7.7 8.9 11.1 10.2 14.1 15.4 11.5 .June 7.6 6.5 5.2 0 11.2 12.1 14.4 15.5 July 7.1 6.5 '9.7 9.0 11.4 13.0 13.9 16.1 Aug. 3.9 7.2 10.6 12.3 13.6 13.8 14.7 14.7 Sept. 4.4 7.8 11.9 11.6 9.4 10.0 10.5 11.5 Oct. 6.0 9.6 13.3 15.0 15.6 12.6 17.8 17.6 Nov. 0.7 12.9 12.2 16.1 16.1 16.7 18.0 17.7 Dec. @8.4 14.6 15.3 14.6 15.0 17.1 17.3 18.0 Total 58 97 140 153 161 181 194 194 Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling nad Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute Total Energy Consumption To compute total energy use Bowling and Benson converted the con- sumption of fuel oil, gasoline, coal@and imported electricity into kilowatt hours. Table 6 summarizes total energy in millions of kilo- watt hours for the Fairbanks North Star Borough for 1970, 1973 and 1975. It shows that energy consumption is related to temperature variations. Energy consumption in Fairbanks during the coldest winter months is roughly twice as high as consumption duringthe summer. 10 Bowling and Benson found that total energy use rose from 2.6 billion kilowatt hours in 1970 to 4.4 billion kilowatt hours in 1975, an increase of 68 percent. They also.found that since 1970 there have been significant changes in the sources of energy in Fairbanks. In 1970, 47 percent of the total energy consumption in Fairbanks was gene- rated by coal, but by 1975 coal had dropped to 31 percent of energy used. The decreasing dependence-upon coal was accompanied by a corres- ponding increase in fuel oil consumption, from 27 percent of the total energy use in 1970 to 40 percentin 1975. The proportion of gasoline increased from 21 percent of total energy use in 1970 to 24 percent in 1975. The amount of electricity imported from Healy decreased slightly from 5 percent of the-totalenergy.consumed.in 1970 to 4 percent in 1975. JL Figure 5 TOTAL ENERGY USE In Millions of Kilowatt Hours Fairbanks North Star Borough 11800- 1970, 1973 and.1975 19-70 E3 V71 I q 757 C4- 0 0 q00 200- fill -P r-UEL- OIL- GASOL-INE COAL. 'r-i-Z-cT R icily FRot-j tAEAL-f 1q70 3 Elec+Vic:1-tY -ue- I 0i I --frorn I Ejec+rIcJ%+y FW@k Oil, I- lec+v- Healy Fuet 0i I -@royn * ro@@ 5X% (6% Healy 407. Healy 21% Coal GasotiAe Coal Coal -31% 4-7% % -rcr-,RL- P-ME9,6y use, -roTA t- rz N E RG,@ ()sF- - 7o-rAL EOPERGY USE' Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute. C c, @al 12 Table 6 TOTAL ENERGY USE In Millions of Kilowatt Hours 1970, 1973 and 1975 Average Fuel Electricity Temperature Oil Gasoline Coal From Healy Total OF 1970 Jan. 80 41 43 16 180. -16 Feb. 68 35 110 13 226 8 Mar. 56 42 106 1:3 217 21 Apr. 64 45 95 11 215 32 May 38 44 @q 9 180 .512 June 44 58 72 5 17.9 58 July 36 60 65 10 171 '63 Aug. 46 56 69 11 182 57 Sept. 56 58 85 12 211 41 Oct. 52 45 109 13 219 19 Nov. 64 37 119 12 232 10 Dec. 94 41 160 15 310 -9 Total 696 563 1,224 140 2,623 28 1973 Jan. 149 38 137 17 341 -18 Feb. 94 26 113 15 248 -2 Mar. 59 41 117 10 227 12 Apr . 43 43 92. 15 193 35 May 38 49 75 .14 176 50 June 30 49 61 12 152 60 July 40 61 58 13 @172 63 Aug. 48 57 67 -14 186 55 s2pt. 57 60 86 10 213 47 Oct. 80 47 105 13 245 25 Nov. 104 49 120 17 290 0 Dec. 119 52 129 17 317 -3 Total 886 591 1,160 181 .2,818 27 1975 Jan. 216 51 163 19 449 -15 Feb. 161 54 145 17 377 -4 Mar. 151 70 135 18 374 12 Apr. 122 80 104 .17 323 30 May 84 82 95 12 273 54 June 74 104 82 16 276 63 July 64 113 71 16 68 Aug. 94 114 74 15 297 55 Sept. 131 113 96 12 352 46 Oct. 171 112 107 18 408 24 Nov. 251 110 140 18 519 -8 Dec. 229 90 164 is 501 -16 'Total 1,748 1,093 1,378 194 4,413 26 Source: Dr. Sue Ann Bowling.and Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute 13 PER CAPITA ENERGY USE IN KILOWATTS Fairbanks North Star Borough 1971 and 1975 EL-EM 'ICA r-?,OM HEALY -rqAmSP0RTA'T10K 8.-7 HEATI IPJ& OIL- ELCECTR ICA L 1111M GeNF_qPvTtoN 0 0 7 Dec.-I I I Nov. '75- 1 IJunp-'-l I I jone-16 -OF -8" F (@-31 F (,-60 F U-) in+r-lr Source: Dr. Sue Anii Bowling and Dr. Carl Benson, UA Geophysical Institute. 14 Chapter II TRANSPORTATION RELATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION Increases in transportation activities, much of which were asso- ciated withpipeline construction, have been the primary reason for increased energy consumption in Fairbanks in the past few years. Both the need to transport materials for the p ipeline and the accelerated demand for personal transportation as a result of population.growth have contributed to the increased highway and air traffic. Ground Transportation The number of vehicles on roads and highways in the Fairbanks area increased steadily during the pipeline construction period, as shown in@Table 8 and Figure 7. While most of this growth in numbers of vehicles may be attributed to population growth, there is some evidence which suggests that there were more cars and trucks per person during the pipeline construction period than previously. This may-be attributed to company-owned vehicles, including the Alyeska fleet, and to greater affluence which enabled families to puichase more than one vehicle. These ratios are given in Table 7 below. Table 7 POPULATION AND VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS Fairbanks North Star Borough 1970, 1973 and 1976 1970 1973 *1976 ,Estimated Total Population 45,000 50,000 65,000 Total Vehicles 25,873 32,609 46,134 Vehicles per person .57 .65 .71 Passenger Cars 12,750 15,708 21,752 Vehicles per person .28 .31 .33 Cars as percent of total vehicles 49%- 48% 46% Pick-up Trucks 5,506 83,123 12,425 Pick-ups per person .12 .16 .19 Pick-ups as percent of total vehicles 21% 25% 27% Passenger Cars and Pick-ups 18,258 23,831 34,177 Vehicles per person Ai .48 .53 Cars and Pick-ups as percent of total vehicles 71% 73% 74% Sources: Alaska Department of Public Safety, Division of Motor Vehicles, Anchorage; Fairbanks North Star Borough, Planning and Zoning Dept. 15 Table 8 MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS Fairbanks & Anchorage .1970-1976 % Change Z Change 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1970-1973 1973-1976 Fairbanks Passenger 12,752 13,214 13,851 15,708 19,695 21.075 21,752 23 % 38 % Light Truck 5,506 6,327 6,864 8,123 10,448 11,309 12,425 48 % 53 % Truck 1,917 1,514 1,548 1,363 2,234 3,468 3,247 -29 % 138 % Commercial Trailer 356 384 449 438 697 1,063 1,279 23 % 192 % Commercial Bus 67 90 86 70 61 62 119 4 % 70 % Trailer 2,362 2,634 2,855 3,530 4,057 3,758 3,934 49 % 11 % Motor Cycle 2,378 2,629 2,801 2,7tO 2,843 2,848 .2,785 16 % 1% For Hire 37 40 48 44 58 110 76 19 % 73 % Other 498 449 544 573 562 583 517 15 % 10 % TOTAL 25,873 27,354 29,046 32,609 40,655 44,276 46,134 26 % 41 % Anchorage Passenger 59,697 64,889 71,010 71,132 88,221 :92,280 92,613 19 % 30 % Light Truck 16,888 21,185 23,831 24,301 30,001 .33,251 34,611 44 % 42 % Truck 5,853 4,614 5,463 4,637 6,654 9,763 10,952 -21 % 136 % Commercial Trailer 2,137 2,276 2,758 2,939 4.035 5,475 5,71@ 38 % 94 % Commercial Bus 254 273 319 350 549 820 908 38 % 159 % Trailer 11,411 12,510 .13,795 14,105 16,853 16,501 15,550 24 % 10 % Motor Cycle 4,438 5,309 5,683 5,724 6,939 6,681 6,H2 29 % 11 % For Hire 106 116 127 137 208 255 279 29 % 104 % Other 3,938 4,383 3,160 2,789 2,982 1,499 3,958 -29 % 42 % TOTAL 104,722 115,555 126,146 126,114 156,442 166,525 170,966 20 % 36 % Source: Alaska Department of Public Safety, Division of Motor Vehicles, Anchorage. Figure 7 MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS Fairbanks, Alaska .1970-1976 40- Fiul-oma@o i les 9M L 1 3 h+ Tr u CIYICO Coynfn.er ci a I Tr u CYS 120 - jo Jul %q7-3 19-7(a Source: Alaska Department of Public Safety, Division of Motor Vehicles, Anchorage. qj4 The greatest increases were in pick-up trucks, which tend to consume more gasoline per mile than passenger cars. The increase in popularity of pick-up trucks may relate to national trends, or to residential growth in outlying areas of the borough where roads are often poor and services such as refuse collection are not available, or to the practi- cality of having a pick-up truck as a second vehicle. The growing number of vehicles in Fairbanks created -traffic problems. Between 1973 and 1976 the number of vehicles increased 41 percent and the Alaska Department of Highways estimates that traffic in the metropolitan area increased a corresponding 43 percent. This increase is illustrated in Figure 8. The existing road system and traffic routings proved insufficient to handle the increased demand. Between 1973 and 1976 the number of auto accidents in Fairbanks in- creased 67 percent. A potentially negative effect of more vehicles is increased air pollution. Vehicle exhaust has been identified as the primary cause of poor air quality in the metropolitan area4 This issue is discussed in greater detail in the final chapter of this report. Figure 8 MOTOR VEHICLE TRAFFIC Fairbanks Metropolitan Area 1973-1976 060- X/O F 430- Ann%A,131 15 -4 e- V C3 I 10- iqls lckI4 Ictl 5 .Source: Alaska Department of Highways, Fairbanks District, Traffic Planning 18 Table 9 AIRPORT ACTIVITY Fairbanks International Airport 1973-1976 1973 1974 1975 1976 Operations January 2,667 3,436 6,414 6,709 February 5V488 4,953 10,063 9,649 March 9,942 12,208 14,681 15,343 April 12,537 17,698 17,979 23,902 May 13,411 20,391 20,648 26,129 June 16,650 18,407 21,744 23,232 July 15,861 18,525 21,720 24,997 August 15,294 18@916 18,746 28,520 September 13,660 18' 733 18,446 22,180 October 9,775 14,136 12,510 16,607 November 5,474 10,285 9,505 12,133 December 5,116 @8,341 5,582 7,464 Total 125,875 166,029 178,038 216,865 Daily Average 345 455 488 594 Freight January 6,816,383 11,563,606 26,580,219 16,102,812 February 5,722,382 13,522,136 28,903,063 14,389.115 March 6,440,289 19,334,989 35,312,465 14,364,676 April 6,077,847 24,0230339 48,229,049 35,294,985 May 6,262,973 26,866,714 .48,188,402 25,345,935 June 8,054,158 32,803,172 27,850,899 6,856,564 July 4,746,899 .36,715,545 23,248,028 11,116,570 August 9,709,415 3624999883 26,011,667 27,922,974 September 10,757,567 --39-,8871,867 23,,3@4,514 5,800,575 October 7,763,146 -30i444,135 25,275,119 11,903,629 November 7,637,813 24,655,890. 27,352,238 9,355,708 December 13,859,748 35,897,711 20,138,641 7,086,266 Total 93,848,620 332,219,987 360,404,304 185,539,809 Daily Average 257,120 910,192 987,409 508,328 Passengers January 22,421 23,207 42,368 48,684 February 20,454 22,405 40,880 45,460 March 24,903 29,401 50,297 57,639 April 23,358 31,779 51,261 58,274 May 26,067 35,546 53,510 60,726 June 33,325 60,803 76,236 July 40,326 54,527 74,382 82,252 August 40,937 57,778 74,650 84,099 September 29,079 59@@539 61j,124 65,102 October 24,965 .42,047 58,216 53,707 November 22,779 38,026 49,438 47,511 December 22,929 .42 830 44,933 47,243 Total 311,363 480,899 661,862 726,933 Daily Average 853 1,318 1,813 1,992 Source: Alaska Department of Public Works, Division of Aviation. 19 Figure 9 AIRPORT ACTIVITY f3o- Fairbanks International Airport 0 1973-1976 V C C)PF RATION S I R-1 B 1411t jqjS 191(a _4D- r.+ 0 10- C10- G. F=Pr= I G HT 010- jq,14 11 1A *70 - ( 6D- 0-60- 0 - PASSENGERS 0 -C F 20- Anrwal Mon+hly 10- 19,14 1917!lr 11 19-7b I Source: Alaska Department of Public Works, Division of Aviation. Fairbanks Inte na@tna@lAir@port 19 r_19 10 73 76 ope 'AT( O@NS 20 Air Transportation Air transportation also increased significantly in Fairbanks during the pipeline period. The number of operations (take-offs and landings) at Fairbanks International Airport increased from 125,875 in 1973 to 216,865 in 1976, a 72 percent increase. At the beginning of the pipeline project, prior to completion of the North Slope Haul Road, much of the growth in airport activities may be attributed to freight shipments from Fairbanks to the North Slope and other pipeline destinations. After the North Slope Haul Road was completed, airborne freight declined and more freight was trucked up the highway. Much of the growth in airport activities in recent years may be attributed to small, private aircraft, another sign of affluence as a result of pipeline activities. Table 9 ai@6 Figure 9 summarize airport activity. 21 Chapter III ENERGY COST COMPARISONS Introduction In a recent survey, readers of Impact Information Center Reports ranked articles on cost of living as their number one topic of interest. However, data on cost of living for Fairbanks and most communities in Ala.6ka.is minimal. Prior to 1970 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) computed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Fairbanks, but at the present time Anchorage is the only city in Alaska which has a CPI. In 1976 Congress approved legislation which required BLS to re-establish a CPI for Fairbanks. However, consumer expenditure surveys to establish baseline data will not be completed until mid-1978 and it appears likely that a Fairbanks CPI will not begin until 1979. Due largely to the lack of other data, cost of living comparisons between Alaska cities commonly are limited to differences in food prices or at best a combination of housing and food costs. Such surveys have frequently concluded that Fairbanks living costs are about 15 percent higher-than Anchorage. It is apparent from the data in this chapter that energy cost diff-erentials are greater than 15 percent. The price information which follows will be put into clearer per- spective in Chapter IV when it is applied@to comparisons of home heating costs. Heating Oil As noted in Chapter I, heating fuel is by far the most common type used in Fairbanks. Most residents use #1 fuel because it flows better during the extreme low temperatures. Heating oil prices vary season- ally. They are lowest in the summer months when sales decline and usually increase in the fall and winter months in response to greater demand. Since most consumers buy the bulk of their fuel during the winter months, the Impact Center's survey of distributors was conducted 1n October and November. Prices surveyed are for a phone order, cash payment, delivered to a residence. A summary of prices charged by Fairbanks heating oil distributors from 1974 to 1976 is summarized in Table 10. It shows that those who purchase fuel in small quantities pay a higher price per gallon than those who purchase 500 or more gallons. In 1974 the price of #1 heating oil ranged from a low of 45.4i@ per gallon (based on the 500 gallon rate) to a high of 51.2t,' per gallon. By fall 1976 these prices 'bad increased an average 20 to 25 percent and ranged from 56.9g, to 61.5(,' per gallon. 23 Table 10 HEATING OIL PRICES* PER GALLON Fairbanks, Alaska 1974, 1975 and 1976 % Increase % Increase oil 100 Gallon 300 Gallon 50b Gallon 500 Gal. 500 Gal. Company Type 1974 1975 1976 1974 1975 1976 1974 1975 1976 1974-1976 1975-1976 Chevron Fbks. Fuel Supply #1 49.U 56.4c 61.9c 48.4c 54.9c 60.44@ 47.4c 53.9c 50.4c 25% 10% #2 49.9 55.9 60.4 48.4 54.4 58.9 47.4 53.4 57.9 22% 8% Sourdough Beating #1 49.9 56.4 62.9 48.4 54.9 59.4 47.4 53.9 58.4 23% 8% #2 49.9 55.9 61.4 48.4 54.4 57.9 47.4 53.4 56.9 20% 7% Union Johnny's Express #1 46.4 54.2 57.7 45.9 53.7 57.7 45.-9 53.7 57.2 25% 7% #2 45.1 52.9 56.4 44.2 52.0L 56.4 44.2 52.0 55.5 26% 7% Petroleum Sales #1 NA NA NA 52.2 59.0 63.5 51.2 58.0 61.5 20% 6% 52.7 56.2 #2 NA NA NA 46.9 53.7 58.2 45.9 22% 7% Tesoro Kobuk Oil Co. #1 49.5 59.0 66.9 46.4 55.9 60.9 45.4 54.9 59.9 32% 9% #2 NA 57.8 65.9 NA 54.7 59.9 NA 53.7 58.9. - 10% Shell Oil Northern Gas & Oil #1 61.9 61.9 65.1 58.0 58.4 60.6 55.0 55.4 57.6 5% 4% #2 60.4 60.5 63.7 56.5 57.0 59.2 53.5 54.0 56.2 5% 47 Texaco Peters Express #1 53.5 62.0 66.0 50.5 57.5 59.5 48.9 55.9 56.9 16% 2% #2 52.5 60.0 64.0 49.5 55.5 61.5 47.9 53.9 58.9 23% 9% Northern Heating #1 53.4 61.4 65.9 51.9 59.9 59.9 50.9 58.9 58.9 16% 0 #2 49.4 59.4- 64.9 47.9 55.9 58.9* 46.9 54.9 57.9 23% 5% *Based on phone order, cash pa yment, delivered fuel for October 1974, Oc@tober 1975 and November 1976. Source: Compiled by the Impact Information Center from information supplied by each distributor. Table 11 HEATING OIL PRICES,* PER GALLON Fairbanks, Anchorage and Seattle November" 19'76 Oil 100 300 500 Oil 100 300 500 Type Gallon Gallon Gallon Type Gallon Gallon Gallon Fairbanks Anchorage .Chevron Alaska Heat Inc. #1 49.5o: 48.5c 48.5c Fairbanks Fuel Supply #1 61.9c 60.4c 59.4c b 2 47.5 46.5 46.5 #2, 60.4 58.9 57.9 Sourdough Heating #1 62.9 59.4 58.4 Union #2 61.4 57.9 56.9 Katmai Oil.& Gas #1 NA 47.0 47.0 #2 NA 46.0 46.0 Union Johnny's Express #1 57.7 57.7 57.2 Texaco # 2 56.4 56.4 55.5 Denali Fuel Co. #1 48.7 47.7 47.7 Ln Petroleum Sales #1 NA 63.5 61.5 #2 47.1 46.1 46.1 #2 NA 58.2 56.2 Shell Tesoro Northern Gas & Oil Co. #1 NA 48.0 48.0 Kobuk Oil Co. #1 66.9 60.9 59.9 #2 NA 46.0 46.0 #2 65.9 59.9 58.9 Tesoro Shell Oil Petro Products, Inc. #1 47.0 47.0 47.0 Northern Gas Oil 65.1 60.6 57.6 #2 45.9 45.9 45.9 112 63.7 @9.2 56.2 Chevron Texaco Consolidated Fuel Co. #1 48.7 47.7 47.7 Peters Express #1 66.0 59.5 56.9 #2 47.1 46.1 46.1 #2 64.0 61.5 58.9 Northern Heating #1 65.9 59.9 58.9 Seattle #2 64.9 58.9 57.9 Union Pacific Coast Hemphill #1 46.9 44.9 43.9 *Based on phone order, cash payment, delivered. Oil Co. #2 45.9 43.9 42.9 Source: Impact Information Center Survey of heating oil Shell Universal Oil Delivery #1 NA NA NA distributors. Inc. #2 47.9 43.9 42.9 Figure 11 HEATING OIL AND PROPANE PRICES* PER GALLON Fairbanks, Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 7 VO 50@ 0 4( M 47M 2.1-44 F-3irbanKS Artchora3e Tunfatk Seatle. P31rb5nK5 Rrjc@ofa3e- -F1PZ0?F)NE- *More than one distributor was surveyed in each city. The above prices represent the middle range of,those quoted. Prices are based on a minimum of 500 gallons delivered. Sources: Heating Oil - Sourdou gh Heating (Fairbanks), Consolidated Fuel Company (Anchorage), Chilkat Fuel Company, Inc. (Juneau), and Pacific Coast Hemphill (Seattle). Propane - Petrolane Gas Service (Fairbanks) and Northern-Gas (Anchorage). Table 12 PROPANE PRICES PER GALLON Fairbanks and Anchorage Fall 1976 Propane Costs Fairbanks Anchorage Petrolane Gas.Service Petrolane Gas Service Heating: 100 lbs. $1.14/gal. .'Heating: 100 lbs 910gal. 100 gal. 73.9o,/gal. 100 gal. 7ft/gal. Vangass Inc. Northern Gas Cooking: 100 lbs. 98-50gal. Cooking: 100 lbs. 85C/gal. 100 gal. 75(@/gal. Heating; 50 gal. $1.05/gal. 100 gal. $1.00/gal. Heating: 100 lbs. 774@/gal. 1g. quant. 63.50gal. 100 gal. 62C/gal. 26 Table 11 shows that fall 1976 heating oil prices were roughly 19 to 25 percent higher in Fairbanks than Anchorage and 30 to 45 percent higher than Seattle. Although Fairbanks heating oil prices are higher, Figure 11 illustrates that price increases between 1973 and 1976 were not unique to Fairbanks. The price of heating fuel in Seattle went from 22.41,, per gallon in 1973 to 42.9(,% per gallon in 1976, an increase of 92 percent. Anchorage heating oil prices rose from 26.8@ per gallon in 1973 to 46.1(,% in 1976, a 72 percent increase. Fairbanks heating oil prices between 1973 and 1976 increased 63 percent from 34.9r, to 56.9c.. Propane Although propane is available in Fairbanks, its use is minimal in comparison to other fuel sources. Most of the propane sold in Fair- banks is used only for cooking. Personsliving in areas without electricity.,sometimes also use it for lighting. In 1973 propane was 67,,, per gallon compared to 73,9(@ per.gallon in 1976, an increase of 10 percent. However, propane is very expensive-in comparison to other energy,sources as will be demonstrated in the home heating cost com- parisons in Chapter IV. Electricity As Figure 12 illustrates, electricity costs in Fairbanks increased dramatically between 1973 and 1976. The charge for 1,000 kwh for city residents served by the Municipal Utilities System (MUS) increased. from $45 in 1973 to $57 in 1976, a 27 percent increase. In the same period, the cost of 1,000 kwh of electricity for GVEA members living outside the city increased from aout $49 to $64, a 31 percent jump. Figure 11 also shows that electrical rates in Fairbanks were exception- ally high in comparison to those paid in Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle. In 1976 1,000 kwh of electricity was $64 in Fairbanks, $26 in Anchorage, $42 in Juneau and only about $10 in Seattle. All of the Alaska utilities surveyed had preferential rates for customers who used larger amounts of electricity. In Anchorage cus- tomers who purchased over 1,500 kwh per month in 1976 paid only 1.6(,, per kwb while those who purchased.less than 50 kwh paid 7(,"per kwh. In Fairbanks GVEA charged l0c per kwh for members using up to 100 kwh, but 3-75,@ per kwh for members using over 1,200 kwh. In contrast to the Alaska practice, the rate structure of Seattle Light and Power Company provided an incentive to conserve electricity. Customers using 480 kwh or less were charged .78C. per kwh, while those using over 2,500 kwh were charged 1.2C. per.kwh. Natural Gas Although the community does not presently have natural gas, if the 27 Table 13 ELECTRICAL RATES Fairbanks, Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 Fairbanks - Municipal Utilities System 1973 1976 Minimum $4/month 0 to 50 kwh $4.75/month 0 to 50 kwh 9.2c/kwh up to 100 kwh 9.50k-wh up to 100 kwh 8C/kwh @next 300 kwh 6C/kwh neyt 150 kwh- 5.75(,/kwh next 600 kwh 4.5C/kwh over 256 kwh 3.450kwh next 1,000 kwh 4C/kwh sales tax 5% sales tax 5% Cost of 1,000 kwh $43.10 Cost of 1,000 kwh $54.50 + sales tax 2.16 @ + sales tax 1 2.73 Total bill $45.26 Total bill $57.23 Fairbanks Golden Valley Electric Association 1973 1976 Within Outside Within Outside City City City City Minimum -@10/month $10/month 0 to 100 kwh 10t,/kwh 10(@/kwh Ist 150 kwh I 8C/kwh 8r-/kwh next 400 kwh 6.5c/kwh 7(@Ikwh next 550 kwh 3.9(,,/kwh 5.25C/kwh next,700 kwh 4.5c/kwh 5C,/kw next 800 kwh 2.20kwh 2.25c/kwh over 1,200 kwh 3-750kwh 3.750kwh over 1,500 kwh 1-850kwh 1.85c/kwb sales tax 5% 2% sales tax 5% 2% Cost of 1,000 kwh $40.05 $47.63 Cost of 1,000 kwh $58.50 $63.00 + sales tax 2.00 .95 + sales ta:: 2.93 1.26 Total bill $42.05 T48-58 Total bill $61.43 $64.26 Anchorage Chugach Electric Association 1973 1976 Within Outside Within Outside City City City City Ist 50 kwh 5.50kwh 6.4c/kwh Ist 50 kwh 7C/kwh 7C/kwh next 200 kwh 3.00kwh 3.70kwh., next 200 kwh 3.50k@7h 4.3c/kwll next 500 kwh 2.ft/kwh 2.Wkwh next 500 kwh 2.2C/kwh 3.2C/kwh next 750 kwh 1.80kwh 1.6(,/kwh next 750 kwh 1.90kwh 1.90kwh over 1,500 kwh 1-40kwh 1.4(,/kwh over 1,500 kwh 1.6c/kwh 1.6c/kwh Cost of 1,000 kwh $22.75 $27.60 Cost of 1,000 kwh $26.25 $32.85 28 Juneau Alaska Electric Light & Power Co._ 1973 1976 Within Outside Within Outside City City City City Ist 180 kwh 5C/kwh 51;/kwh lst 180 kwh 5.80kwh 5.8C/kwh over 180 kwh 2.8c/kwh 2.80kwh over 180 kwh 3.6c/kwh 3.6c/kwh sales tax 3% 1% sales tax 3% 1%. surcharge 3% Cost of 1,000 kwh $31.96 $31.96 + sales tax .96 .32 Cost of 1,000 kwh $39.96 $39.96 Total bill $32.92 $32.28 + sales tax 1.20 .40 + surcharge 1.20 Total bill $42.36 $40.36 Seattle City Light 1973 1976 Ist 525 kwh or less/month $5.25* lst 480 kwh .78c/kwh next 975 kwh .740kwh next'720 kwh .86(,/kwh next 1,000 kwh .80C/kwh next 1,300 kwh .91C/kwh over 2,500 kwh .900,/kwh over 2,500 kwh 1.2C/kwh meter charge $1.50/mont.h Cost of 1,000 kwh $8.77 Cost of 1,000 kwh $8.22 *minimum. charge of $5.25 was charged + meter charge 1.50 instead of meter charge Total bill $9.72 Table 14 NATURAL GAS RATES Anchorage and Seattle Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 Anchorage Alaska Gas & Service Co. 1973 1976 $4 minimum/month $4 minimutn/month 0-19 ccf* $4 0-19 ccf $4 next.31 ccf 20C/cef next 31 ccf 20C/ccf additional ccf 120cef additional ccf 12.0ccf plus .02681% to cover five rate increases since 1974 Seattle Washington Natural Gas Co. 1973 1976 0-5 therms* $1.5155 0-5 therms $2.16 next 5 therms 25.710therm next 15 therms 34.35C/therm next 10 therms 20.31c/therm. next 30 therms 29.47C/therm next 30 therms 17.210therm next 50 -therms 25.470therm next 50 therms 13.310therra additional therms 24-68C/therm over 100 therms 12.510therm + city tax .0753% + city tax .0753% *ccf = 100 cubic feet of natural gas and is approximately equivalent to a thermi. 29 Figure 12 COST COMPARISONS. FOR ItOOO KWH OF ELECTRICITY Fairbanks, Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 P70 #(.1.43 60 R75 3 $4.2.36 Sq0.36 #0 0 A32.219 30 0 20 U $9.7:2 10- 6.v. F- A GN. EA - C41 SobtLfrbS Cl+i SubtLrbS Semile, 0-14Y SubuxbS wash. FRIR5ANKS -ANCHORAGE- -7UNEAU Sources: Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System, Golden Valley Electric Association:(Fairbanks), Chugach Electric Association (Anchorage), Alaska Electric Light and Power Company (Juneau), and Seattle City Light. proposed gas pipeline is routed through Fairbanks, it may provide the opportunity for local utilization. Rates charged by gas companies in Seattle and Anchorage are given in Table 14. Readers unfamiliar with gas prices will probably not find these figures very meaningful. However, the relative cost of gas to other fuels is demonstrated in the home heating comparisons in Chapter IV. Coal Although the price of coal has nearly doubled from $18 per ton in 1973 to $30.50 per ton in 1976,.it continues to be the cheapest and most abundant fossil fuel resource in the Fairbanks area. As noted in Chapter I, nearly all of the coal brought to Fairbanks is used to generate electric power. Future Trends in Energy Costs As will be discussed in the chapter on Electrical Utilities, it is difficult to predict the source of future energy costs. Many of the developments which influence these costs are determined by inter- national economic and political events which are often unpredictable. At the present time there are a number of factors, such as the proposed gas pipeline, which could potentially lower.-energy..costs in Fairbanks. It is anticipated that the North Pole Refinery scheduled for completion in fall 1977 will significantly lower the cost of heating oil. There have also been discussions for many years about hydroelectric power projects. As will be covered in Chapter V, MUS and GVEA are con- sidering construction of a coal-fired power plant at Healy. Due to the increasing demand for energy, there have been major efforts to develop new sources. A number of Alaskan researchers are exploring some of these approaches which include solar energy, geothermal.energy and wind power. However, in spite of these develop- ments, most energy experts concur that it will be difficult to meet the accelerating demands for energy. There is widespread recognition among energy experts that the days of cheap, abundant energy from fossil fuels are over here, and everywhere. 31 Table 15 COAL COSTS Usibelli, Coal Mines, Inc. Fairbanks 1973 and 1976 1973 1976 Coal Stoker coal $16.45/ton $29.25/ton Lump coal 18.00/ton 30.50/ton -Delivery 1 ton $22/ton 2 tons 7.05/ton@ 15/ton 3 tons 6.80./ton 14/ton 4 tons 6.55/ton 13/ton 12/ton 5 tons /mil Per mile out of town 50(, e $1.05/mile Tax Delivered within city 5% 5% Delivered outside city .2% 2% Cost of 13 Tons of Lump Coal Delivered 32 Chapter IV CONSUMER GUIDE TO HOME HEATING,, ELECTRICITY & VEHICLE COSTS The energy crisis and high fuel costs have caused consumers to be increasingly conscious of energy consumption. A recent survey by the National Association of Realtors found that nine out of ten prospective home buyers asked about the heating and electricity costs of the homes they were shown (Fairbanks Daily News Miner, February 26, 1977). The previous chapter summarized prices for several types of energy. To compare the relative cost of these fuels, the Impact Center asked Axel Carlson, Extension Engineer with the University of Alaska's Coopera- tive Extension Service made computer runs for a typical home (described in Table 16) to estimate its fuel requirements for a variety of energy sources. The Impact Center computed estimates of annual heating costs for 1973 and 1976. The results, summarized in Table 16 estimated that 1976 annual heating costs for the typical home would be $580 for coal, $2,004 for electricity, $1,087 for fuel oil, $2,0571for propane and $1,010 for spruce wood. Figure 13 illustrates these costs and compares them with 1973 cost estimates. A lthough coal was the least expensive fuel, as noted in Chapter 1, very few Fairbanks homes use it as a heating source. Heating with coal requires coal storage and involves considerably more effort than most ofther fuels. Of the other fuels, heating oil is the most economical. Prior to major rate increases which occurred during the past few years, electricity was an attractive heating source because it was clean, required lower installation costs and.entailed. less maintenance than oil systems. In April 1975 GVEA announed a moratorium on the installation of electrical heating facilities. Company officials explained that they could not handle any more electrical heat customers. Prior to the pipe- line GVEA received electric heat applications from only two out of five builders. However when the pipeline related housing shortage put pres- sure on builders to speed up construction schedules, GVEA said nine out bf'tdn-builders were applying for electric heat. Due to the soaring price of electricity, some homeowners are having fuel oil heating systems installed. The Impact Center contacted several local plumbers and contractors who install oil-fired hot water baseboard systems and found that the cost of coverting a home from electricity to oil would probably cost $5,000 to $7,000. One contractor estimated that such a conversion would cost 7 to 10 percent of the appraised value of the home. In a survey of homes which had osld in the Fairbanks area in@ 1976, the Impact Center found that homes heated with electricity were not selling as well as those with oil heat. Additionally appraisers and real- tors have told the Impact Center than a home heated with electricity would likely be appraised for less than an identical home with oil heat. 33 Table 16 ESTIMATED ANNUAL FUEL REQUIREMENTS AND HEATING COSTS* FOR A TYPICAL HOUSE Fairbanks, Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle 1973 and 1976 'Typical" House Specifications Type: One-story with a full heated daylight basement (60" below grade). Size: 24' x 48' on the main floor (1,i52 sq. ft.). Insulation: Concrete block basement has 2" of styro- foam insulation next to blocks plus 31@" of fiber- glass. Exterior walls on main floor have 3@" of fiberglass and roof has 9". Windows: Double-pane glass. Temperature: Interior temperatures throughout the house maintained at 680 F. Fall 1973 -------------------- Annual Costs -------------------- Average Delivery Total Monthly Cost/ No-of Fuel or Other Tax Heating Heating Fuel Unit Unit- X Units Cost + Charges + Rate Costs Costs- Fairbanks - aver. annual temp. 25.60F Bituminous Coal- city ton $18.00 13 $ 234 $6.55/ton 5% $ 335 $ 28 Bituminous Coal - 10 miles outside city ton $18.00 13 234 $6.55/ton 2% 326 27 Electricity - MUS kwh 3.45C ':52,392 1,808 5% 1,898 158 Electricity - GVEA Wh 1.85c. 52,392 969 2% 988 82 Fuel Oil gal. 1,910 667 - 667 56 Propane gal. 694@ 2,783 1,920 1,920 160 Anchorage ver. annual temp. 35 ;Fa Electricity kwh 1.4C 40,917 $ 573 $ 573 $48 Fuel Oil gal. 26.8c 1,492 400 400 33 Natural Gas ccf. 12c 1,995 239 .239 20 Propane gal. 45c 2,173 978 978 81 Juneau aver. annual temp. 42.FOF Electricity kWh 2.8c 31,970, $ 895 3% $ 922 $77 Fuel Oil gal. 22.8C 1,166, 266 266 22 Seattle - aver. annual temp. 53.20F Electricity kwh .904; 19,351 174 - 174 $14 Fuel,Oil gal. 22.4C 706 158 - 158 13 Natural Gas therms 12.51C 944 118 - 127 11 34 Fall 1976 -------------------- Annual Costs ------------- ------- Average Delivery Total Monthly cost/ X No. of Fuel + or Other + Tax Beating Heating Fuel Unit Unit Units Cost Charges Rate Costs Costs Fairbanks - aver. annual temp. 25.60F Bituminous Coal - City ton $30-50 13 $ 397 $12/ton 5% $ 580 $ 48 Bituminous Coal - 10 miles outside city ton $30.50 13 397 $12/ton 2% 564 47 Electricity - KUS kwh 4C 52,392 2,096 - 5% 2,201 183 Electricity - GVEA kwh 3.75c 52,392 1,965 - 2% 2,004 167 Fuel-Oil gal. 56.9c 1,910 1,087 - - 1,087 91 Propane gal. 73.9(, 2,783 2,057 - - 2,057 171 Spruce Wood cord $45.00 22 990 - 2% 1,010 84 Anchorage - aver. annual temp. 350F Electricity kwh 1.64@ 40,917 $ 655 - $ 655 $ 55 Fuel Oil gal. 46.4 1,492 688 - 688 57 Natural Gas ccf. 12p, 1,995 290 $8 293 25 Propane gal. 62c 2,173 1,347 - 1,347 112 Spruce Wood cord $45-00 17 765 - 765 64 Juneau - aver. annual temp. 42.80F Electricity kwh 3.6c 31,970 $1,151 @3% 3% $1,186 S 99 Fuel Oil gal. 44.3C 1,166 517 - - - 517 43 Spruce Wood cord $45.00 13 585 - 585 48 Seattle - aver. annual temp. 53.20F Electricity kwh 1.2c 19,351 $ 232 $18 $ 250 $ 21 Fuel Oil gal. 42.9c 706 303 - 303 25 Natural Gas therms 24.68c 944 233 - Vi% 250 21 *For detail,.d information on rates and other costs for different types of fuels see other table!s in this section. Sourcq: Determination of fuel and heating.requirements for a typical house in each citv were made for the Impact Center by Axel R. Carlson, Extension Engineer, Cooperative Extension Service, V of A, Fairbanks. Fuel costs/unit were determined by an Impact Center survey of suppliers. Wood heating costs were included in the comparisons primarily so readers could determine the quantity of wood required to heat a home. Most people who use wood as their primary heat source in Fairbanks cut and split their own. Increases in the cost of other energy sources has encouraged many Fairbanks residents to install auxiliary wood stoves to supplement other heating fuels and lower heating costs. 35 Figure 13 ESTIMATED ANNUAL HEATING COSTS FOR A TYPICAL HOUSE Coal, Electricity, Fuel Oil and Propane Fairbanks, Alaska Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 -7 kzoo4 U/,920 -7 (t* 1973 U 0) $1,0137 Doc) -ra soo - 67 C, 00- t68o 01 Coal Elecirlc+y Fue- 1 0 Source: Determination of fuel and heating requirements for atypical house (see Table 16) were made for the Impact Center by Axel R. Carlson, UA Cooperative Extension Service. Fuel costs were determined by an Impact Center survey of suppliers. '36 ESTIMATED ANNUAL FUEL OIL HEATING COSTS FOR A TYPICAL HO USE* Fairbanks Anchorage, Juneau, and Seattle Fall 1973 and Fall 1976 $1,097 IJ000- 0 800 or @00 - 0 A $400 10c) $303 C 200- Faorbanr,15 f)nCho',ra8e 3-ur%e-zu Sea -@V le *See "typical house" specifications on page 34. Source: Determination of fuel and heating requirements for a typical house in each city were made for the Impact Center by Axel R. Carlson, Extension Engineer, Cooperative Extens-Fon Service, U of A, Fairbanks. Fuel costs/unit were determined by an Impact Center survey of suppliers. The statistics from the previous chapter showed that the price of heating oil in Fairbanks in 1976 was 23 percent higher than Anchorage. However, this comparison does not account for the climatic differences in the two communities. The mean annual temperature in Fairbanks is 25.6*F, compared to 35F in Anchorage. Thus a comparison of heating oil prices.alone is insufficient to determine the actual cost differences. Carlson's computer run of a "typical house" found that it would cost 1,087 annually for heating in Fairbanks compared to $688 in Anchorage, or 58 percent more. Comparisons of heating costs for a variety of fuels for Fairbanks, Anchorage, Juneau and Seattle are shown in Table 16. Figure 14 compares the estimated annual fuel oil heating costs for these cities for 1973 and 1976. 37 Household Electrical Consumption As discussed in the next chapter, MUS statistics indicate that aver- age electrical consumption of Fairbanks households increased from 5,914 kwh annually in 1971 to 6,791 in 1976, an increase of 15 percent. High- er household electrical consumption is also a national trend and relates primarily to a proliferation of electrical appliances. Additionally, modern appliances often use more electricity than older models. The most popular hair dryers, for example, are those with high wattage. Most refrigerators and freezers on the market are now frost-free models which use more electricity than manual defrost models. ESTIMATED ANNUAL ELECTRICAL CONSUMPTION Household Appliances Estimated Estimated Annual Annual kwh Used kWh Used Food Preparation fouiewares Blender 15 Clock 17 Broiler 100 Floor Polisher 15 Carving Knife Sewing Mnchine 11 Coffee Maker 106 Vacuum Cleaner 46 Dishwasher 363 Frying Pan 186 Comfort Conditioning Hot Plate 90 Air Cleaner 216 Mixer 13 Air Conditioner (room) 860* Oven, Microwave (only) 190 Dehumidifier 377 Range Fan With oven 1,175 Attic 291 With self-clean-oven 1,205 Circulating 43 Roaster 205 Rollaway 138 Toaster 39 Window 170 Trash Compactor 50 Heating Pad 10 Waffle Iron 22 Humidifier 163 *Based on 1000 hours of operation per year. This figure will vary widely Food Preservation depending on area and specific size Freezer (15 cu. ft.) of unit. Manual Defrost 1,195 Frostless 1,761 Health & Beauty Refrigerator (12 cu. ft.) Hair Dryer 14 Manual Defrost 728 Heat Lamp (Infrared) .13 Frostless 1,217 Shaver 1.8 Refrigerator/Freezer (14 cu. ft.) :, , - Sun Lamp 16 Manual Defrost .1,137 Tooth Brush 0.5 Frostless 1,829 Home Entertainment Laundry Radio @86 Clothes Dryer 933 Radio/Record Player 109 Iron (ha@id) 144 Television Washing Machine Black & White Tube Type 350 Automatic .103 Black & White Solid State 120 Non-automatic 76 Color Tube Type 660 Water Heater Color Solid State .440 Standard 4,219 [email protected] A'811 Source: City of Fairbanks, Municipal Utilities System, May 1976 newsletter. 38 Table 17 gives estimates of annual electrical consumption for a variety of household appliances. Consumers who wish to compare these figures with their own consumption can make estimates by multiplying the wattage of the appliance by the estimated hours used in a year and then dividing by 1,000. The Cost of Owning and Operating a Vehicle in Fairbanks For most Fairbanks residents access to transportation requires own- ing a vehicle. A bus route between the downtown area and the University of Alaska has operated for sqveral years, but it has only been within the last year that the Borough has established a mass transit system which is planned to eventually serve most of the metropolitan area. In general all costs relating to vehicle ownership in Fairbanks are higher than the "Lower 48." The unusually long cold Fairbanks winters reduce the effi- ciency of the combustine engine. The.result is lowered gas mileage, higher pollution, and higher operating costs. A variety of personal preferences and other factors can also affect gas mileage and other vehicle ownership costs. Some persons prefer to do all routine maintenance themselves. Others have such work done by an auto dealer or service staticn. Some vehicles are kept in heated garages. Some persons leave vehicles idling for long periods before driving, while others start the engine and drive off immediately. Although aware of the potential for individual variations, the Impact Center attempted to arrive at cost estimates for buying and operating a new vehicle for three years. For comparative purposes three vehicles were chosen - an imported sub-compact se0an, a full-size American sedan, and a four-wheel drive three-quarter-ton pickup. In pricing these vehicles the Impact Center allowed for options such-as a radio, power steering in the American sedan and pickup and other features which dealers indicated were commonly purchased. Also included in the purchase price were options which are considered necessary or advisable for winter driving conditions such as a headbolt heater, battery warmer, two extra studded snow tires, positration and a rear window defogger. As noted previously, determining gas mileage is subject to individual variation. To arrive at an average Impact Center staff informally-surveyed Borough employees and others to arrive at averages for the three types of vehicles: 25 miles per gallon (mpg) for the imported sub-compact, 14 mpg for the full-size American sedan and 10 mpg for the pickup. The results of this estimating procedure are summarized in Table 18. When the cost of depreciation, financing, insurance, fuel and maintenance were tallied, they revealed that over a three-year period an owner could expect to pay $1,949 annually to operate the sub-compact, $2,929 for the full-size sedan and $3,562 for the pickup. That computes to an average cost per mile of 160 for the sub-compact, 24o, for the sedan and 30i@ per mile for the pickup. 39 ESTIMATED VEHICLE OWNERSHIP COSTS, Fairbanks, Alaska 1977 4-Wheel Sub-compact Full-size drive Imported American 3/4-ton Sedan Sedan Pick-up Three-Year Capital Costs *Initial purchase price $4,150 $6,600 $7,900 Interest (based on an interest rate of 11.8% and financing 75% of- purchase for 3 years) 600 940 1,125 Trade-in after three years (based on depreciation of 30% for first year and 7% for each year after first) -2,500 -3,950 -4,700 Total 3-Year Capital Costs $2,250 $3,590 $4,32 Annual Costs - Capital (1/3 of above total) 750 1,197 1,442 - Fuel -- at 80C gallon -- for l2jOOO miles (based on 25 mpg for sub-compact, 14mpg for full-size sedanj and lOmpg for pick-up) 384 686 960 - Insurance 415 545 560 - Maintenance, Repairs, Misc. 400 500 600 Total Annual Costs $1,949 $2,928 $3,562 AveraEe C st Per Month 163 244 297 Average -Cost Per Day. 5.34 .8.02 9.76 Average Cost Per Mile 16,,% 24C 30(,% Total Three Year Costs $5,847 .$8,784 $10,686 *The initial purchase price was based-on the cost.of a 1977 model equipped with options which.are usually added, such as a radio; and, options which are considered necessary for winter driving, such as snowtires, winterization package, and positraction. Source: Impact Information Center Survey of Fairbanks auto dealers, service stations and insurance companies. 40 Chapter V ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN FAIRBANKS Overview The Fairbanks area is served by two electric utilities: The Elec- trical Department of the Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System (MUS) which serves most of the city, and Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA) which provides power to the outlying areas. MUS is controlled by a Public Utilities Board (PUB), but rate increases, the budget, and major contracts must also be approved by the Fairbanks City Council. GVEA is a consumer-owned cooperative run by a seven-member board of directors who are elected from the districts in which they reside. MUS serves the area within the City boundaries approximately as .they existed in 1963. Theutility's generating facilities, located on the Chena River near downtown Fairbanks,..utilize a combination of coal-fired steam turbines, gas turbines and diesel engines. Table 19 GENERATING CAPACITY MUS Electrical Department Fairbanks, Alaska March 1977 Date of Output No. Type of Generator Installation Vdltage Capacity Chena 2 Steam'Turbine 1952 4.16 kv 2,000 kw Chena 3 Steam Turbine 1952 4.16 kv 1,500 kw Chena 1 Steam Turbine 1954 4.16 kv 5,000 kw Chena 4 Gas Turbine 1963 12.47 kv 5,350 kw Diesel 1 Diesel Engine, 1967 12.47 kv 2,665 kw Diesel 2 Diesel Engine 1968 12.47 kv 2,665 kw Diesel 3 Diesel Engine 1968 12.47 kv 2,665 kw Chena 5 Steam Turbine 1970 12.47 kv 20,000 kw Chena 6 Gas Turbine 1976 12.4.7 kv 23,500 kw Source: Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System In 1976 the total capacity of the MUS system was 65,345 kilowatts (kw), a 56 percent increase from the 1970 capacity of 41,845 kw. In increasing its capacity, MUS has greatly decreased its dependence on coal and increased dependence on oil-fired gas turbines. As Figure 15 illustrates, in 1970 68 percent of the MUS system capacity was derived from coal-fired steam turbines, compared to 44 percent in 1976. In 1970 only 13 percent of the utility's capacity was oil-fired gas turbines, 41 Figure 15 FUELS FOR POWER GENERATION MUS Electrical Department Fairbanks, Alaska 1970 and 1976 1970 -0qrurqiqoqln8qe4qS Steam q1q)qie4qseql -6qr8qurbi ne4qS (q10q0qj 4qneqs Diesel CAPACITY: 41,845 KW CAPACITY: 65,345 KW Source: Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System. GVEA serves areas which have been annexed to the city since 1963 such as Hamilton Acres, Lemeta, Johnston, and Aurora subdivisions, the borough areas outside the city, and highway communities from Healy to Delta. GVEA has generating plants in Fairbanks, Healy, Delta and North Pole with a total generating capacity of 166,000 kw, a 172 percent in- crease over its 1970 capacity of 61,000 kw. In 1967 GVEA completed a 25,000 kw coal-fired generating plant adjacent to the mine at Healy. This plant supplied the bulk of the cooperative's power needs until November 1976 when a new 70,000 kw oil- fired gas turbine was installed at North Pole near the North Pole refi- nery which is presently under construction. GVEA has also decreased the proportion of its coal generation capacity and increased dependence upon oil-fired gas turbines for peaking power. As Figure 16 shows, in 1970 56 percent of GVEA's capacity was coal-fired, compared to only 15 percent in 1976. In 1970 none of GVEA's capacity was from gas turbines, but now gas turbines account for 70 percent of its capacity. The increase in GVEA's residential customers reflects the large amount of new construction which occurred in the outlying areas to meet the housing needs of the community's expanding population during pipe- 42 Table 20 GENERATING CAPACITY Golden Valley Electric Association Fairbanks, Alaska March 1977 Type of Capacity Year Total No. Generator Per Unit Installed Location Capacity 8 Diesel 3 ' 000 kw 1961, 1964 Fairbanks 24,000 kw and 1970 1 Coal-fired 25,000 kw 1967 Healy 25,000 kw 2 Gas turbines 20,000 kw 1971, 1972 Fairbanks 40,000 kw 2 Gas turbines 3,500 kw 1975 Fairbanks 7,000 kw 2 Diesel 250 kw 1975 Delta 500 kw 1 Gas turbine 70,000 kw. 1976 North Pole 70,000 kw Total: 166,000 kw Figure 16 FUELS FOR POWER GENERATION Golden Valley Electric Association Fairbanks, Alaska 1970 and 1976 @q-70 I q,7 (0 Coat-f ired c Steam Diesel Coal4orect Diesel 56% Gas _@urb;nes 70% CAPACITY'. (61,ooo KvJ CAPACITy.- 16(a,000KW Source: Golden Valley Electric Association. 43 line construction. The increase in the number of GVEA's large commer- cial customers is more directly related to the pipeline since these include power to Pump Stations 8 and 9, the pipeyard, and the North Star Terminals Complex. In addition, GVEA has served a number of new pipeline- related businesses in areas such as the airport, Van Horn Road and Peger Road areas. Figure 17 KILOWATT HOURS (KWH) OF ELECTRICITY SOLD Golden Valley Electric Association Fairbanks, Alaska 1965 1976 .305*6' 300- ISO 200-1 166.8 0 /(>A 0 160 - .77 64-7 94 50- 1965 19Gb IQ(07 1 q 4616 1969 jq70 1q7) 1972 19-13 Mlf176- 1q7(b Source: Golden Valley Electric Association. 44 Figure 18 RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS Golden Valley Electric Association Fairbanks, Alaska 1970 1976 12,000- Commecr-ial 10,000- LAx-bran 8,000- 0 OF (09000-+ J000- z .2,000- lcllo 1q-1 1 0-12 1913 0,74 wis 076 ------- Residential --------- -------- Commercial -------- Total Under Over Total Total Year Rural Urban Residential 50 kw 50 kw Commercial Customers 1970 4,494 1,730 6,224 786 58 844 7,068 1971 49644 1,789 6,433 816 60 876 7,309 1972 5,073 1,874 6,947 856 60 916 7,863 1973 5,469 1,913 7,382 901 72 973 8,355 1974 6,093 1,989 8,082 987 85 1,072 9,154 1975 1 7,146 2,097 9,243 1,083 126 1,209 10,452 1976 8,416 2,264 10.,680 1,064* 301* 1,365 12,045 *Change in commercial rate classification. Source: Golden Valley Electric Association. or 45 Figure 17 illustrates the growth GVEA has experienced since 1965. Between 1970 and 1973 the number of kilowatt hours sold by GVEA in- creased from 136.5 million to 206.1 million, a 51 percent overall increase and an average annual increase of 14.6 percent. From 1974 to 1975, at the peak of the pipeline boom, GVEA increased its electricity production by 29 percent. In 1976 GVEA sold only 2 percent more electricity than the previous year. This leveling in demand is attri- buted to an unusually mild winter and the slow down in population and economic growth associated with completion of the pipeline. Trends in Demand for Electrical Services Between 1970 and 1976 the number of customers served by GVEA in- creased from 7,068 to 12,045, a 70 percent increase. Most of GVEA's growth may be attributed to an increase in rural residential customers. Between 1970 and 1976 the number of rural residential customers in- creased 87 percent from 4,494 to 8,416. Figure 18 summarizes trends in the number of residential and commercial GVEA customers. The growth experienced by the MUS ElecLrical Department has been small in comparison to GVEA. The number of customers served by MUS increased from 5,510 in 1971 to 5,831 in 1976, a 6 percent total increase for the period and an -average annual increase of about 1 percent. The main'reason for the slower growth is that the area served by MUS is limited. Table 21 summarizes the number and types of MUS customers,for 1971 through 1976. Table 21 ELECTRICAL CUSTOMERS Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System 1970 1976 Year Residential Commercial Other Total 1971 4,493 846 171 5,510 1972 .4,540 884 181 5,605 -1973 4,443 910 177 5,530 1974 4,618 941 171 5,730 1975 4,634 968 167 5,769 1976 4,687 .978 166 5,831 Source: Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System Between 1971 and 1976 the number of residential customers increased only 4 percent, while the number of commercial customers increased 16 percent. This difference reflects changes in land use within the city during the pipeline period which caused an increase in "vertical growth" such as multi-story office buildings, apartments, hotels and motels. 46 Although the number of residential customers has remained rela- tively constant, the amount of electrical consumption per residential customer increased from 5,914 kwh in 1971 to 6,791 in 1976. It is possible that this increased consumption was the result of higher incomes. Acommunity survey conducted in 1976 by Jack Kruse ("Research Notes: Fairbanks Community Survey," Institute of Social and Economic Research, UA Fairbanks, December 1976) found that within the previous year 23 percent of those surveyed had purchased major appliances such as washers, driers, stereos,.television sets and freezers, all of which typically use large amounts of electricity. Another partial explanation is that one of the most frequent ways people coped with the housing shortage in recent years was to "d ouble-up." Thus a large number of persons living in a house or apartment would likely consume more electricity. Power Outages nd-Peak Loads A major population increase, combined with extremely cold weather, put unprecedented demands on both MUS and GVEA during the winters of 1974-75 and 1975-76. There was@ much concern that increased demand would overload the existing systems. There @are -basically two types *of power outages. The first is a localized power outage which can occur due to faulty home wiring, a fire,.or damage to a wire or telephone pole. Such outages are typically minor and affect only a few customers. The second, and potentially more serious types of power outages, are those which occur because an inadequate amount of electricity is generated to meet the demand. This usually occurs when one or more of the gene- rating units fails. Since generating units frequently must be shut down for maintenance, a utility is required to have a reserve.genera- ting capacity. Thus, an electric utility must have "firm capacity" sufficient to.meet the electrical demands of its customers if the largest generating unit in the system is inoperative. Figures 19 and 20 illustrate total and firm capacities for the MUS and GVEA system plotted against peak demand. During 1975 peak electrical demands for both systems exceeded firm capacity. The most serious power outages are likely to occur when several generators fail during periods.-ofextreme cold temperatures when demand for electricity is high. This type of power outage threatened the GVEA system several times during the winter of 1975-1976. As a result GVE-A instituted a consumer education program aimed at reducing electric consumption during critical times. The "peak load alerts," which were issued via the news media, requested customers to cut back on electrical corisumption by turning off unnecessary lights, turning off hot water beaters, lowering thermostats and discontinuing use of major appli- ances such as ovens, washers, dryers and dishwashers. GVEA warned that if the peak load alerts were insufficient to reduce consumption, the utility would have to cycle power on and off 47 GENERATING CAPACITY AND PEAK ELECTRICAL DEMAND Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System 1960 1986 w w Z o w (r 70- To -ro-rAl- CAPACxTy 60-3 FE w I I .00 FE A K DEMAND Z ul pRoseCTE D PEAK DErnAN 0 y 40- 3 :E 00 10 (.n I in I 30- w 1 V) J Uj (r (0- 8.gMv4-STEAWI-4@1-@@ jq6+ jq@o jq' 19' 1960 '9b2 19(ob lq(os 1910 1472 1974 jq'76 1978 92- 64 1986 System capacity if largest unit fails. Source: Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System. Figure 20 GENERATING CAPACITY AND PEAK ELECTRICAL DEMAND Golden Valley Electric Association 1970 1976 I (CIO - -ro-rf)L- CAPACIly f:tKm CA9P'C-CTy ao - 0- n (leav, Loack. 4: >K-S S+'em CZ? ze-4,1 9L.L%n't+ fat S. IOD -(0 50 - 1970 lq-71 1q112. IqTb 1q'74 14-75 111 /;0 Source: Golden Valley Electric Association. by area on a rotating basis. However, the alerts p Iroved helpful in lowering consumption and cycling power was not required. As further insurance against power outages, GVEA urged its custo- mers to install home generators. GVEA's,November 1975 newsletter said: Purchasing a portable electric generator is simply buying an insurance policy. Considering our cZimate, it only makes good sense. No utility in the world guarantees 100 percent reZia- biZity and no utility in the world provides it. However, the purchase of generators is beyond the financial means of many GVEA customers. A newspaper article at the time pointed out that 49 the cost of such units ran from $467 for a gas model to $2,000 for a die- sel.one. In lieu of a generator GVEA suggested an alternate heat source. One common method used to avert a power outage is to purchase excess power from another utility. GVEA, and MUS have a power pooling agreement with each other and are' interconnected with all major power plants in the Interior except Clear Air Force Base. Thus the utilities can have access to emergency power from Eielson Air Force Base, Fort Wainwright, Ft. Greely, NASA at Gilmore Tracking Station, Murphy Dome and the University of Alaska. Although most observers believed a completepower failure in Fairbanks was remote, an MUS official outlined the following scenario of priorities in case of a critical power failure: If for some reason, such as the failure of several turbines, the MUS plant were unabZe@to meet its entire power demand, and no power was available from GVEA_, then a "brownout" probably would be ordered. . . This would mean reducing power to all customers, resulting in such effects as dimmer lights. The next step. if necessary would be to cut off power for such non-essential usesas,street lights and certain public buildings, such as those at AZaskaZand. Next to go would be the more essential public buildings., followed by commercial buildings and schools. The last available power would be reserved for such vital facilities as the hospital (which has its own backup power g@.,,nerating capacity) and private homes. (Fdirbanks Daily News Min October.23.3. 1975.) As noted previously, both the MUS'and' GVEA systems have greatly increased their reliance on fuel@oil to, generate electricity in recent years. Therefore, another reason for a serious power outage could be a fuel oil shortage. In November, 1975, GVEA's supplier, Tesoro Petroleum COmpany, informed the.,utility that it could not supply enough diesel to meet GVEA's fieeds. GVEA officials calculated that their fuel supply would be exhaustedin a few days. The utility warned that if the shortage were not averted, half the association's gene- rating capacity would be idled, forcing blackouts on a rotating area- by-area basis. The crisis was averted by an emergency pooling of power from Eielson Air Force Base, Fort Wainwright and MUS. Tesoro said they could not supply the increased GVEA demand with- out jeopardizing their other customers who depended on the company for heating oil. Tesoro explained that GVEA's diesel consumption had 50 increased from 600,000 gallons in November 1974 to 1.3 million gallons in the first 14 days of November 1975. GVEA said their in- creased consumption was caused by record-breaking low temperatures, a decision by the secretary of the Army not to sell GVEA reserve coal- fired power from the military bases, and a greater than anticipated number of new customers on the system. When the Federal Energy Admini- stration (FEA) and GVEA attempted to get fuel from another supplier, they found that tank cars were tied up on a priority basis by Alyeska Pip.eline Service Company for pipeline construction and the Department of the Army for transport of fuel to Petroleum Reserve No. 4. Alyeska Pipeline Service Company and Eielson Air Force Base agreed to divert their fuel,reserves and these emergency allotments were sufficient to get GVEA through the crisis. The FEA then arranged for Union Oil Company to be GVEA's "interim alternate supplier." 'Although the fuel crisis was averted, less than two weeks later a combination of extremely cold weather and generator troubles caused GVEA to issue peak load alerts asking area residents to curtail power usage. Alerts were broadcast over local radio stations at 14 minute intervals. GVEA had issued similar warnings in previous years after power outages, but this was the first time such warnings had been given in advance. GVEA officials estimated that power usage dropped about 5,000 kilowatts as a result of the broadcast; but GVEA also esti- mated that it could have been cut by 7,000 to 10,000 kilowatts if everyone 11ad participated. A peak load usage of about 82,000 kilo- watts was expected. Because of the warnings, usage peaked at about 77,000 kilowatts. In contrast to the two previous pipeline win ters, 1976-77 was not marked bypotential power problems. This was the result of an unusually warm winter, a leveling in economic growth, and an increase in the generating capacities of both-the MUS and GVEA systems. GVEA installed a new 70,000 kw gas-turbine-fired power plant at North Pole in November 1976. The new facility also has a storage capacity of 1.8 million gal- lons of oil, compared to a 235,000 capacity the previous year when a fuel shortage threatened'.to cut electric power. In the winter of 1975-76 MUS's main generator, Chena 5, broke down several times and needed repair and maintenance. It received a major overhaul in summer 1976 at a cost of a half million dollars. In addi- tion, in December 1976 a new 29-megawatt gas turbine generator, Chena 6, became operational. This new generator is not expected to be needed this winter, but it increases the firm capacity of MUS and serves as an insurance policy against power shortages until the city's pooulation and power demand increase substantially. MUS Rate Increases As a municipally owned u tility, MUS rate increases are proposed 51 by the management and the Public Utility Board (PUB), but must be approved by the City Council. MUS rates are not subject to regulation by the Alaska Public Utilities Commission (APUC). For several years the City Council has vigorously resisted MUS rate increases, In October 1975 the PUB requested an 8.21 percent increase in MUS elect- rical rates. The Council turned down the request and substituted a 4 percent rate increase i 'n February 1976. A Fairbanks Daily News Miner editorial suggested that the management of the city's utilities should be less subject to the political pressures of the city council: The city council and the c-astomers of MUS should take a close Zook at the idea of pushing MUS and the Public Utilities Board farther away from.the political influences of the council, and giving the PUB proper,authority to do its job. . . it was the council that stalled.for a year studying the rate increases proposed by the-MUS management and the PUB in.1972. That procrastination of our counci.Zmen while they second-guessed tong deliberation and decisions already made by MUS board members significantly delayed MUSI preparation for the pipeline boom. Council members are still arguing over issues proposed in that round of debate four years ago. MUS has grown into a big-business.as the rest.o'f Fairbanks has grown and diversified. It-shouZd no Zonger be a stepchild of the city government, but a Zarge business in its own right with the city government as one of its Zargest customers. (Fairbanks Daily News Miner,, May 25_, 1976) In June 1976 the MUS Controller resigned, citing frustrations from dealing with the City Council as one of his major reasons. He said the council had frequently ignored recommendations from the PUB. He was especially critical of the four@months the countil took to approve an electric rate increase which was authorized at less than half of the original request. He predicted: if we continue on the way we are, the electric department is going to tose $1-2 million, not to mention the money needed for power plant maintenance. (Fairbanka DaiTy News Miner June 22, 1976) In July 1976 the MUS management requested a 19 percent increase in electrical rates '. They said the increase included 6 percent to cover the cost of a new gas turbine generator, 9 percent for increased fuel and labor costs, plus the 4 percent the council had refused to approve the previous fall. The PUB provided financial data which indicated that the electric department had been losing money for several months and it was anticipated that the total loss by the end of 1976 would be nearly a million dollarp if the increase were not granted. The City Council approved the 19 percent rate increase in September 1976. 52 Inadequate utilities have been identified as one of Fairbank's most serious problems during the pipeline boom. It appears likely that better planning could have averted much of this impact. A former MUS manager noted that early in 1973 MUS consultants had identified the need for a 24 percent increase in electrical rates, yet it was not until February 1976 that the City Council approved a rate increase, and it was only 4 percent. The additional 19 percent increase followed seven months later, af ter the peak of pipeline activity. GVEA Surcharge and Rate Increases In'contrast to -the'MUS system, GVEA is regulated by the Alaska Public Utilities Commission (APUC). In 1974 GVEA applied to the APUC for a rate increase to cover mounting fuel costs. In 1972 GVEA paid 19.75 cents per gallon for fuel oil used to produce electricity and by 1974 the price had nearly' doubled. The APUC told the utility to implement a fuel "surcharge" until a final determination on the rate increase could be made. The APUC chose 1972-as the "base year" used to calculate on a three month average what it cost the utility to produce a-kilowatt hour of electricity. The surcharge represented the.difference in cost between producing kilowatt hours of electricity with fuel at the base yerr price and producing electricity with fuel at the current price. The addition of the surcharge meant that elect- ricity bills of GVEA customers, particularly those with electric heat, hit unprecedently high levels. Many GVEA customers were enraged: I imagine everyone in Fa irbanks has received their Golden Valley electric bill this month. If yours was anything like ours, something must be done about this rip-off! We have a small, two-bedroom house., total electric. Last month our totaZ electric bill, including the surcharge, was $99. This month, our bill is $292.03. The surcharge is $110.45! This brings our eZectricity biZ1 to aZmost doubZe our house payment! (Letter to the editor., Fairbanks Daily News Mine January 28, 1976.) One woman Protested the surcharge by declaring a hunger strike and picketing the GVEA offices. Other consumers protested the continua- tion of GVEA's rate structure which gave preferential rates to custo- mers who used more electricity. Another letter to the editor noted: In examining the proposed rate increase as outlined in your Golden.VaZley HighZines paper, _T note that again the benefit of lower rates go to the high consumer.- To me this approach is completely unrealistic. Why should a person using onZy 100 kw have to pay $.10 per hour and the over 1200 kW users get their electricity for the $.0375 rate? In 53 other words the more you use the cheaper it gets. In these days of power shortages it would seem prudent to encourage conservation. What better method than the more you use the more you pay? (Fairbanks Daily News Miner., May 3, 1976). Initially GVEA requested a 25 percent rate hike, but delays in- creased expenses and the amount of the request increased. By mid-1976 GVEA proposed rates to eliminate the surcharge and to increase resi- dential rates by 48.7 percent over the existing base (non-surcharge) rate established in 1971. The new rate structure increased the cost of electricity to small commercial users 30.5 percent and 57.2 percent to large commercial users. The full rate increase request was ap- proved by the APUC in October 1976. Figure 2l summarizes the average electrical cost per kilowatt hour for GVEA members from 1965 to 1976. Figure 21 AVERAGE ELECTRICAL COST TO MEMBER PER KILOWATT HOUR Golden Valley Electric Association 1965 to 1976 42 M1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 l972 1975 1971 Source: Golden Valley Electric Association 54 The Future of Electric Utilities in Fairbanks In addition to the rapid expansion GVEA has achieved in the past year, it plans to install a second 70,000 kw generating plant in North Pole by December 1977. That will increase the utility's total genera- ting capacity to 232,500 kw. This level is 181 percent higher than the highest peak load level (82,600 kw) ever experienced by GVEA and 97 per- cent above existing "firm capacity." The addition of this generator will increase the proportion of GVEA capacity fueled by gas turbines to 80 percent. In March 1976 former Fairbanks newsperson Ben Harding termed GVEA's decision to build an oil-fired power plant instead of relying on coal a "serious miscalculation." Harding pointed out that estimates by an MUS consultant predicted that an increasing reliance on fuel oil would double the cost of power co GVEA users in the next few years. Harding attributed the miscalculation to estimates on the future price of oil from the North Pole Refinery which were made in 1973 before the Arab oil embargo caused oil prices to soar. In 1973 it appeared that installation of the North Pole generators would provide additional generating capacity faster and cheaper than an addition to. the utility's Healy coal-fired plant. Harding said that by the.time GVEA recognized its mistake the financing arrangements had already been made with the Rural Electrification Administration (REA) and the. demand for power in Fairbanks forced them to go forward. Harding described the reactions of other power producers to GVEA's actions: Other power producers in this part of Alaska - the city of Fairbanks, the University of AZaska's Fairbanks campus-, and Fort Wainwright - are watching with mounting disbelief as Golden Valley puts all its electric eggs in an oil-fired basket. Oil is too expensive, they believe, to be used for'anything but the emergency generation of electric power. (AZZ Alaska WeekZy.,, March 5., 1976). GVEA officials acknowledged that coal is a cheaper fuel, but they explained that REA was pushing for oil-fired plants because they were less expensive to build., However, since that time, due to "project independence," it is easier to obtain REA funding for coal plants. GVEA spokesman Mike Kelly told Impact Center staff: On the plus side, investment in the new oiZ-fired generators had to be made sooner or later. When the 150 kilowatt coaZ-fired generator is completed at Healy in 1983, emergency and peaking generators will be requilred in the Fairbanks area in case of generator or transmission line failure. The scene would apply when power becomes available from the Devils Canyon hydroelectric project. 55 Although prices won't be as low as originally projected, GVEA is hopeful that fuel purchased from the North Pole Refinery, scheduled to begin production next fall, will reduce its fuel costs. Refinery President Frank DeLong recently predicted that the price of oil pro- ducts from the refinery will cost about the same as those purchased in Anchorage. At the present time most fuels are 7 to 10 cents higher in Fairbanks than Anchorage. DeLong commented: The only reason for us being here is for producing and seZZing fueZs at a cheaper price, and we are committed to passing along some of the savings. (Fairbanks Daily News Miner December 8, 1976). The eventual price of oil from the refinery is still in question and will be largely determined by the price the refinery will pay for oil shipped from Prudhoe Bay via the Alyeska pipeline.. Neither the well-head price for the crude, nor the transportaiton tariffs have been set. Earlier this year GVEA announced plans to build a 2.8 mile-long crude oil pipeline from the Alyeska pipeline to the refinery and GVEA generators in North Pole. GVEA officials say ownership of the pipeline would guarantee a continued flow of oil to its North Pole generators and the utility would also earn a tariff on oil shipped from the Alyeska pipeline to the refinery which could provide addition- al revenues of $600,000 annually. Before the project can be built GVEA must acquire financing and receive a certificate to build from the Alaska Pipeline COmmission. Another project which has been considered is the construction of a new mine-mouth coal-fired generating plant at Healy. In mid-1976 GVEA and MUS announced that they were discussing the possibility of a joint venture to build a 150-megawatt Healy plant at an estimated cost of $150 million. Under the plan GVEA would receive 75 percent of the plant's capacity while the City of Fairbanks would receive 25 percent. GVEA has filed applications with the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation and the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency for air quality and water discharge permits for the facility. The utilities feel the project is economically feasible due to the low price of coal; however, they anticipate major environmental hurdles since the plant would be located within a few miles of the border of Mt. McKinley National Park. New federal environmental quality legi- slation is expected to establish strict standards for air and water quality within a 100-mile radius of national parks. Chapter VI THE EFFECTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON AIR QUALITY I got interested in pollution as soon as I got off the earth and looked back. The environment got visibly and pro- gressiveZy worse over the three space flights I took in 1962, 1965 and 1968. (Walter M. Schirra, Jr., June 16, 1970). The astronaut quoted above was relating his personal, space- capsule view@of a steadily expanding cloud of air pollutants off the South Texas shore. Since most.Fairbanksans are constrained to await leaving this earth in a less dramatic fashion than a Saturn V, this report attempts to "look back" at the air pollution covering this spot on earth. Fairbanks was established somewhat by accident in an area amenable to those economic mainstays of earlier times, trapping and gold mining. This was sparse criteria upon which to base the location of what would later become the commercial and transportation "hub" of a major, national mineral development.program. At the time Fairbanks was settled, the significance of the extreme temperature inversions seasonally prevalent in the Fairbanks airshed was probably unknown. A temperature inversion exists when air temperature increases with altitude. This unusual circumstance is important in air pollution considerations because its effect is to hold pollutants in the dense, cold air near ground level. This property of inversions, however, is further amplified in Fairbanks' situation because of the incredible 11strength," or rate of temperature change, of the inversions found here, as compared to other locations. Benson describes the strongest inversion measured at the South Pole as 9.65*C/100 meters, whereas inversions of 100 to 30OC/100 meters are common during the Fairbanks winter. (Benson, C.S., "Ice Fog, Low Temperature Air Pollution," Cold Regions Research Engineering Laboratory, RR 121, June, 1970.) Basically, there are-two main causes of temperature-inversions. One is the occurrence of warm,air arriving from another locale on top of a cool air mass. This type of inversion is common in certain lower latitude cities and is the czude equivalent of placing a "bubble" ,over the city. A significant feature of this type inversion is that the air temperature is relatively constant and accommodates some mixing "inside the bubble" from the ground upward to the boundary between the two air masses. Rowever, it is the second cause of temperature inversions, radiative loss of heat from the earth's surface, which is responsible for Fairbanks' wintertime inversions. This type of inversion begins essentially at ground level and accommodates very little dis-- persing of pollutants. The topography of the area further conspires to 57, ,:,gravate the consequence of Fairbanks' temperature inversions. The 1,kills on three sides of the city provide a natural basin protecting the @;@@-rong, stable inversions from whatever winds might otherwise blow in ..alleviation. Fairbanks has strong, ground-level, stable, and protected tempera- ture inversions to serve as a vessel for air pollution problems. Only one other ingredient is essential to air pollution: the pollutants to fill this vessel. As one might expect, and as the previous chapters detailed, people use an inordinate amount of heat energy to obviate the hardships of an Alaskan winter. The principal technology for generating energy, whether it be for heat, electric power,, or transportation, involves burning some type of fuel. The by-products of this combustion are emitted to the atmosphere in peak amounts during the periods w@hen the airshed can least accommodate them. .The chemical and physical nature of these commonly occurring pollutants has been researched extensively, especially in recent years. Kowever, most of the research originated in the context of "lower 48" urban situations. Adapting this knowledge to Fairbanks requires careful. attention to the many environmental differences that sometimes invali- date for Fairbanks that which may be valid elsewhere. For example, the chemical behavior of many pollutants is known to depend upon reactions sensitive to sunlight. Interior Alaska, with its paucity of sunlight during winter and abundance of it in summer, may not fit the generally accepted predictions and modeling done in other areas. Interior Alaska is essentially a desert with normally very dry ambient air, especially in winter. The only significant source of water vapor is provided by human activity. More specifically, water vapor is a common, and copious, end product of combustion. It will therefore co-exist with the other combustion products, some of which are harmful. Perhaps the most signal feature of Fairbanks' air pol- lution is the intriguing presence and behavior of ice fog. This phe- nometion has its beginnings in the crystallization of water vapor in the very cold winter. The 'relationship between the tiny ice crystals and other pollutants is not.thoroughly understood. It is known, however, ,that the fog crystals provide an absorbing surface and thereby concen- @trate air pollutants. (Benson, 1970, pp.67.) Also, serious air pollution episodes observed in otl-er times and places usually occur in connection with fog conditions. Since ice fog is a localized condition peculiar primarily to Fair- banks, it is not likely to excite a national concern as have other environ- mental matters. In fact, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) does not actually consider it a pollutant. Thus, it 58 is difficult to obtain the resources to adequately understand the full implications that ice fog may have for air quality. Nevertheless, some ice fog research is being conducted, and research results both provide greater understanding of the problem and stimulate questions for further research. Carbon Monoxide Another of Fairbanks' pollutants, which is fairly well understood, is also a combustion product -- carbontionoxide (CO). This pernicious substance is associated primarily, in Fairbanks and elsewhere, with automotive transportation. The liquid fuels burned in the internal com- bustion engine do not, for a variety of reasons, burn to completion. Carbon monoxide is one of the products of this incomplete,.or more properly, oxygen deficient, combustion. Carbon Monoxide and Health - Carbon monoxide is characterized by its tenacious ability to combine with blood hemoglobin to the exclusion of oxygen. In high concentrations, its short term effects on the human organ ism can be similar to hypoxia, or suffocation. Chronic, low-level exposure to CO causes health effects dependent upon a number of variables, including the current health of the recipient. Legal Standards - In 1970, under mandate of Congress and after exhaustive study, the federal government established the concentration of nine parts carbon monoxide in one million parts air (9 ppm), averaged over eight consecutive hours, as the legal standard not to be exceeded more than once a year in a community. Less than this level, 9 ppm, is determined necessary to reasonably protect the health of all citizens from the harmful effects of CO. In 1974 this standard was reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engi- neering for its adequacy or necessity. Their review contains the following: 1. On the basis of the new data base, there is no reason to relax the existing carbon monoxide standard of 9 ppm for 8 hours. 2. populations with coronary arterial disease and the other groups . . . are so numerous"and'so widely dis- tributed in the population that protection from adverse effects of carbon monoxide in these groups requires general control of the air quality in the community. 3. it is imvossibZe to state whether this standard provides a margin of safety. ("Carbon Monoxide Exposure and Human HeaZth," Richard W. Joy., et aZ.) 59 Figure 22 CARBON MONOXIDE POLLUTION Fairbanks Downtown Post Office Fiscal Years 1973-1976 25 National EPA Standard for 8-hr. average Co concentrations Highest 8-hr average for the month Average daily concentration between 11 a.m. - 7 p.m. Source: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Environmental Services Department. Table 22 and Figure 22 show that Fairbanks has frequently exceeded the legal standard. The data also indicates seasonal variation in the CO problem. Although Fairbanks still regularly exceeds the standard of 9 ppm for an eight-hour average, the violations are confined to a shorter season of the year and appear to be lessening in severity. Particulates This pollutant is defined as: "Any material, except uncombined water, in the form of solid or liquid in the atmosphere or gas stream." (Environmental Engineer's Handbook, Vol II, Chilton Book Company, 1974.) This definition covers a very broad category of substances that range from the simply annoying to hazardous. As Table 22 and Figure 23 illustrate, Fairbanks occasionally violates the legal standard of 150 micrograms/cu. meter. A primary source of particulates in Fairbanks is the loose, fine, and dry soils of the area which are easily displaced by human activity into the air as dust during summer. Other major sources of particulates are the forest fires that frequently occur in the Interior. Some of 60 AIR QUALITY SUMMARY Fairbanks North Star Borough 1973-1976 Particulates Carbon Monoxide 24-Hr. Periods Days with 8 hr. periods- Air Quality Exceeding 3 Exceeding 9 ppm Exceeding 15 ppm Al-erts 150 ug/m 1973 June I NA NA 5 July 2 NA NA 1 ,August 0 NA NA 0 September 2 NA NA 16 October 8 4 NA 3 November 22 8 4 0 December 31 25 17 2 1974 January 29 is 17 0 February 24 8 4 0 March 19 4 1 0 April 6 1 0 .2 May 5 1 0 2 June 1 NA NA 2 July 1 0 0 2 August 7 0 0 1 September 7 0 0 7 October 11 1 NA 4 November 16 3 1 0 December 12 3 2 0 Total 138 39 25 20 1975 January 17 6 2 0 Febru *ary 14 3 0 0 March 6 0 0 0 April 0 0 0 0 May 0 0 0 0 June 2 0 0 3 July 0 0 0 2 August 0 0 0 2 September 0 0 0 0 October 7 0 0 1 November 11 2 3 2 December 15 4 3 10 Total 72 15 8 20 1976 January 18 6 4 NA February 12 3 2 1 March 0 0 0 0 April 0 0 0 0 May 0 0 0 0 June 0 0 0 6* July 0 0 0 3 August 0 -0 0 0 September 0 0 0 0 October 2 0 0 0 November 10 3 1 3 December 17 8 @2 0 Total 59 20 9 13 *Partially due to forest fire activity Source: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Department of Environmental Service. 61 Figure 23 PARTICULATE POLLUTION COUNTS* Selected Fairbanks Locations 1975 Nor4) Pole- PHi r Port* Wool U-)o'rA15 - TOO MOW n 100- Grenac- Roack EPA Prirnar,,, @5tandard (no-i- +o be e -Acee(led v-01 e, (00- 7- A: M I 7/ 7/7/7 Ta fflay jun SP-(*. 'Dec. Z Upper part of each bar is, the high for the month, lower portion is the monthly average. Source: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Environmental Services Department. WnFel@a a i Figure 24 200 SUSPENDED PARTICULATES Fairbanks North Star Borough 1971-1975 represents the three-year "running mean"* Annual EPA Primary Standard 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 * Three-year running mean eg,. Each quarter in 1971 represents the average of the particulate counts for that quarter in 1969, 1970 and 1971. Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - National Air Surveillance Network Report, 1957-1976. these fires are located far outside the Fairbanks airshed but still regis- ter on the borough monitors. The control of this "naturally" occurring pollution is limited to road paving, watering, or in some cases, cessa- tion of the disturbing activity, such as extinguishment of forest fires. Other particulate sources include almost any combustion process to a greater or lesser degree. The improving trend in particulate pollution indicated in Figure 24 is attributed largely to the increase in paved streets and decrease in forest fires since 1971. It is again significant that this improvements occurred-coincidentally with an increase in population and construction. Fairbanks North Star Borough Air Quality Program In 1972 the Fairbanks North Star Borough formed an Environmental Services Department to coordinate a local effort to combat this deteri- orating air quality situation. A Transportation Control Plan, proposed by the Federal Environmental Protection Agency for Fairbanks had met disfavor with local residents, the state government, and eventually, a. federal court. Following the court decision, some citizens who were alertedto the seriousness of the air quality problem worked through 63 the borough government to develop an Air Quality Improvement Plan to address the situation at a local level. This plan approaches the Fairbanks air quality problem through five distinct but inseparable elements. These elements are: Traffic Management 2. Parking Management 3. Combustion Engine Emission Reduction Research 4. Air Resource Planning 5. Transportation Alternatives The Air Quality Improvement Plan, as revised, was adopted in November, 1974, and each element implemented to some extent in 1975 and 1976. As a result of this initiative, Fairbanks has perhaps stayed the rate of air quality deterioration, but there is still need for improve- ment in air quality locally. The progress and goals of each component of the plan are reviewed in the following pages. Traffic Management - Generally, improvements that ease traffic conge stion and facilitate a smoother flow will reduce air pollution by carbon monoxide. In 1974 Fairbanks was having problems with traffic congestion. For reasons other than air quality,-traffic patterns were changed to incorporate more one-way streets and improved signal systems. Even as the number of automobiles increased with the general community growth, the borough observed a slight reduction in CO levels which may be attributed to many factors, includiag both traffic improvements and weather. Often, changes made to allay wastes of time, money, energy, or other inefficiencies will result in an attendant reduction in the pollutant load. Traffic management is one such examplc and is therefore one of the more popular abatement mea- sures. It is anticipated that, the new Steese by-pass and other major changes contemplated will considerably enhance air quality. However. some anomalies still exist, such as a major one-way arterial passing through a commercial store parking lot, which may be potentially dangerous. Parking Management - A close relative of traffic management,' parking management demonstrates the inseparability of elements in the Air Quality Improvement Plan. A plan to conveniently accommodate the vehicles that come to the city's commercial area is essential to the economic and physical health of that area; but it also affects air quality, since parking lots attract and concentrate vehicles. A summary nf the Parking Management Study's findings on CO pol- lution in parking lots is presented in Table 23. Each parking space in the city core was inventoried; and a representative sample of these spaces was monitored closely for parking habits - including duration, frequency of use, and time of use. From this information, the amount of carbon monoxide each type of parking space contributed to the atmos- .-64 Table 23 SURVEY OF CARBON MONOXIDE (CO) POLLUTION Downtown Fairbanks Parking Lots January 1976 ----- Spaces ----- -Carbon Monoxide- Estimated CO/car CO/space Parking Category Number Percent kg/Day Percent Cars/Day grams/day grams/day On-Street 1,380 22% 521 20% 3,432 149 483 Unrestricted 991 16% 297 11% 1,788 170 300 Special Zones 113 2% 67 3% 462 144 580 Metered 276 4% 157 6% 1,182 133 569 Off-Street 5,024 78% 2,111- 80% 10,480 235 438 Metered 422 7% 300 .11% 2,069 145 711 .Government 908 299 11% 885 337 329 Commercial 2,745 43% 1,276 49% 6,645 193 465 Private/ Professional 949 15% 2,235 9% 881 267 248 TOTALS 6,404 100% 2.632 100% 13,912 198 457 Source: Fairbanks North Star Borough Parking Management Study, 1976. Figure 25 4- 7 VEHICLE COLD START EMISSIONS Fairbanks, Alaska January 1975 C 4 4- .0 U 1 2- a 4 5 G -7 5 q 10 - ---- --rime it4N m%nu-k-es - - - - - - Source: Cold Start Automotive Emissions in Fairbanks, Alaska, July 1, 1975, by L.E. Leonard. phere was calculated and recommendations were made for adjustments to parking patterns with respect to air quality. The data-. in Table 23was collected through a temperature range of -26*F to -34'F and during an air quality "alert" (CO greater than 15 ppm) . Perhaps the most significant results of this study are the CO emission per car and emission per space figures. These amounts are.high compared to those in a warmer climate because of the lowered-combustion efficiency of an engine during its initial operation under very cold conditions. This leads directly to the next plan element. Combustion Engine Emission Reduction - The source of over 90 percent of Fairbanks' carbon monoxide is the automobile. Thus, the Air Quality Improvement Plan attempts some reduction in CO emissions through improving the efficiency of automobile engines, which also ought to lessen the wastes of fuel, doney and time. To f'urther this effort,,the borough has supported research on the Ircold-start emissions" problem. The sum and substance of this effect can best be illustrated by Figure 25which was taken from a research paper on the subject. (Cold Start Automotive Emissions in Fairbanks, Alaska, July 1, 1975, by L.E. Leonard.) Figure 25shows that when an internal combustion engine is started under cold conditions it emits an excessive amount of CO as it warms to normal operating temperature. Although many details and complexi- ties are being revealed in the research on this effecti the implications for Fairbanks' air quality are significant. Fairbanks has a lot of cars and a lot of cold weather. A combination of research on cold starts 66 and data from the parking management study has shown that approximately 65.percent of the ambient carbon monoxide in the Fairbanks core area is contributed by cold start emissions (Parking Management Study, pp. 65-67.)- Another research finding is: None of the pollution control devices presently in common use are effective in reducing the cold start CO emissions. (Cold Start Automotive Emissions in Fairbanks, Alaska, July 1, 1975, by TE. Leondrd.) Currently, the only commonly effective methods of reducing cold starts are energy intensive, such as heated garages or head-bolt heaters. This fact has bearing upon pollution from power generation. However, local research has also developed some unconventional solutions to this dilemma. An example is a device that stores heat normally wasted during engine operation and uses it to again warm the engine after it has been left standing in cold condition. A working prototype of this device is available and shows promise. This is but one example which illus- trates how the uncommon problems of Fairbanks' air quality may require novel solutions.and the importance of a local research effort to meet these needs. Air Resource Planning - Basic to all environmental issues is the use Jf the land. The environment of Interior Alaska requires very careful cognizance of land use in order to maintain the health of its Figure 26 ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND AIR POLLUTION For Different Development Patterns Energy Consumption Air Pollution Emissions 500 9-00- 4oD- 3 300- too- CL LOW comh j4is@l Low comv. 14* h Dtnsi ix Ddvis,+ Dens i '&@ M Spra-141 , M'. XDe Source: "The Costs of Sprawl" by the Real Estate Research'Corporation, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1974. 67 systems and inhabitants. This section of the Air Quality Improvement Plan calls for consideration of the Fairbanks airshed as a resource affected by the planning decisions regarding the land it covers. The relationship of development patterns as they affect the con- siderations of energy consumption and air pollution can be concisely illustrated by Figure 26 taken from a national data base. Air resource planning also includes the collection and use of data regarding air quality. It provides the necessary feedback to indicate trends and direct the effort that anticipates potential problems. Transportation Alternatives - As Fairbanks continues to grow, the near linear increase in people and automobiles crowd a once-adequate street and road system. Greater physical distance between community facilities further confirms the citizen's dependence upon the auto. Transportation alternatives include public transit, car pools, bicycle paths, or any system that mitigates the one car - one person situation. The social and convenience benefits of these alternatives generally encourage their use more so than a concern for air quality. However, the other management and planning programs of the Air Quality Improvement Plan are greatly assisted by the availability of transportation to those who, for any number of reasons, do not wish to be limited to an individual auto. Epilogue This report has attempted to collect and convey some of the history and statistics related to energy use in the Fairbanks airshed. This has been done in a rather broadbrush fashion in the interest of brevity and clarity. It is beyond the scope of this report to fully analyze the impor- tance of this subject for those who live in Fairbanks. The following comments by the Environmental Services Department of the Fairbanks North Star Borough address some of the major implications of the data in this report: Fairbanks consumes a per capita quantity of energy comparable to the industrialized cities of the Eastern United States. Yet3 Fairbanks is not an industrialized city. It would be a mistake to infer from this that energy consumption and air pollution are preclusive to further economic development of Fairbanks, but neither should growth be alZowed in such a manner as to further denigrate the community's health. What is needed is a balanced effort to enhance one goal with the other. Throughout the preceding report, examples were given demon- strating the fundamental fact that pollution is predicated on 68 waste. It may be a waste of fuel, electricity, land, or any of a number of resources@ but this fundamental holds. it is there- fore'apparent to many that the foundation of our cZean-up effort should start with the elimination of the abuse of our resources. It is heartening that, even as this is being prepared, our city government is hearing proposals to salvage some of the energy lost as thermal discharge from the Municipal Power Plant to the Chena river, and on occasion, to ice fog. Prometheus' presumptuous gift of fire has some novel impZi- cations indeed for the Fairbanks airshed, but the experience of the recent and continuing energy shortages should by itself instruct 'prudent use of fuel. The text of this publication is replete with graphs and data tending rapidly upward. We should keep in mind-, however, that infinity only exists in metaphysics or mathematics. In the real world, the finite nature of the resources these curves represent becomes apparent. The imperative to match our resources to our needs has, in fact., enhanced our concern for the environment by pushing our conscience beyond aesthetics and into management. We hope that Fairbanks, the AZZ-American City, would accept this attitude as its escutcheon for the future. 69 NOAA COASTAL SERVICES M LIBRARY 3 6668 14112857 1 FROM:, Impact Information Center P.O. Box 1267 Fairbanks, Aiaska 99707 TO: -21