Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 east coast of the United States ... Maine to Florida and Puerto Rico, October 28 to November 1, 1991

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

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Natural Disaster Survey Report

THE HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991
East Coast of the United States ... Maine to Florida and
Puerto Rico

October 28 to November 1, 1991

OJ%

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
k lational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
ational Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

Cover: Waves crashing into the Massachusetts shore at Nantasket Beach in Hull.
Photograph courtesy of Tom Horde and provided by the BOSTON GLOBE.

VENT OF

Natural Disaster Survey Report

THE HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991
East Coast of the United States ... Maine to Florida and
Puerto Rico

October 28 to November 1, 1991

June 1992

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Barbara H. Franklin, Secretary

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Dr. John A. Knauss, Administrator

National Weather Service
Dr. Elbert W. Friday, Jr., Assistant Administrator
Cn
LIBRARy
NOAA/cCEH
1990 HOBSON AVE.
C-
CHAS. SC 29408-2623

PREFACE

Nor'easter storms are nothing new to residents along the east coast of the United
States. However, the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 lasted much longer and
impacted an area much larger than what is usually experienced. Due to the efforts of
NOAA/National Weather Service meteorologists and meteorological technicians from
San Juan, Puerto Rico, to Portland, Maine, the populace of the United States affected
by this storm was well served. I congratulate all concerned on their expertise and
professionalism in foreseeing this situation and properly responding.

Elbert W. riday, Jr.
Assistant Administrator
for Weather Services

July 1992
--@Elbert W.

FOREWORD

The report on the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 was prepared by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Disaster Survey team following on-scene
assessments and interviews conducted during the week of November 11, 1991. Such
surveys are conducted at the direction of the Assistant Administrator for Weather
Services whenever significant storms occur.

National Weather Service employees; Federal, state, and local emergency services
and other public officials; media representatives; and members of the general public
from North Carolina to Maine were contacted and questioned specifically regarding the
meteorological and oceanographic conditions that occurred, the timeliness and
accuracy of National Weather Service actions in response to these conditions, and the
appropriateness of responses to these actions.

The team is grateful to the many people who helped before, during, and after these
visits by gathering information and who took time from other activities to spend time
with us.

The Disaster Survey Team

TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE

Preface ............................................ ii

Foreword .......................................... H!

Acronyms and Abbreviations ........................... v

Disaster Survey Team Members ......................... vi

Executive Summary ................................... vii

Findings and Recommendations ........................ ix

Chapter I The Event and Its Impact .................... 1

Chapter 11 Scientific Analysis of Event .................. 14

Chapter III Data Acquisition and Availability .............. 40

Chapter IV Preparedness ............................. 46

Chapter V Warning Services .......................... 50

Chapter VI Coordination and Dissemination .............. 53

Chapter VII User Response ............................ 58

Appendix A Selected Office Coastal Flood Instructions ...... A-1

Appendix B Selected State Forecast Discussions ........... B-1

Appendix C Selected Forecasts and Statements ............ C-1

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AFOS Automation of Field Operations and Services
AVN Aviation Weather Forecast Model
CMAN Coastal Marine Automated Network
DST Disaster Survey Team
FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency
ft Feet/Foot
GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
kt Knots
LFM Limited-area Fine Mesh Model
MARMON Marine Monitoring Program
mb Millibar
MIC Meteorologist in Charge
MLLW Mean Lower Low Water
MRPECS NMC Marine Product, East Coast Storm Surge
NAWAS National Warning System
NDBC National Data Buoy Center
NESDIS National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
NGM Nested Grid Model
NGWLMS Next Generation Water Level Measurement System
NHC National Hurricane Center
nm Nautical Miles
NMC National Meteorological Center
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOS National Ocean Service
NWR NOAA Weather Radio
NWS National Weather Service
NWWS NOAA Weather Wire Services
NYSPIN New York Statewide Police Information Network
PC Personal Computer
PNS Public Information Statements
SDM Station Duty Manual
SMS Satellite Marine Section
SOP Standard Operating Procedure
SWIS Satellite Weather Information System
USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers
UTC Universal Coordinated Time
VAS VISSR Atmospheric Sounder
VDUC VAS Data Utilization Center
VISSR Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer
WCM Warning Coordination Meteorologist
WLTS Water Level Telemetry System
WSFO Weather Service Forecast Office
WSMO Weather Service Meteorological Observatory
WSO Weather Service Office

DISASTER SURVEY TEAM MEMBERS

The Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 Natural Disaster Survey Team is listed below. To
more effectively investigate the storm, the Team Leader split the group in two. One half
consisting of Scavia, Waters, Thurm, Coleman, and Viets covered the area from the
Canadian border to Manasquan, New Jersey, while the other half with Shaffer, Koehn,
Feit, Businger, and Overland researched the area from Manasquan to Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina. Dr. Scavia led the northern group, and Dr. Shaffer led the southern
group. Additional information on damage in Florida and Puerto Rico was provided by
local offices and the Southern Region of the National Weather Service (NWS).

TEAM MEMBERS

Team Leader, Donald Scavia, Director, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal
Ocean Program I

Team Technical Leader, Robert Jacobson, Meteorologist, NWS/Office of Meteorology/Marine and Applied
Services Branch

Field Representative, David Felt, Chief, NWS/National Meteorological Center (NMC)/Satellite and Marine
Section

Field Representative, Richard Coleman, Meteorologist in Charge/Area Manager, Weather Service Forecast
Office (WSFO) Memphis, Tennessee

Field Representative, Harvey Thurm, Regional Marine and Hurricane Prog ram Leader, NWS/Eastern
Region

NOAA Public Affairs Specialist, Patricia Viets, NWS/Public Affairs Office

Subject Matter Specialist, Marshall Waters, Chief, NOAA/Ocean Products Center

Subject Matter Specialist, Wilson Shaffer, Chief, NWS/Office of Systems Development/Marine Techniques
Branch

Subject Matter Specialist, Mark Koehn, Program Leader, NWS/Off ice of Meteorology/Tsunami and
Oceanographic Services Program

Subject Matter Specialist, James Overland, Chief, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Research
Laboratory/Marine Assessment Research Division

Non-Governmental Expert, Steven Buslnger, Professor, North Carolina State University/Marine, Earth, and
Atmospheric Science Department

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Beginning on October 28 and lasting until November 1, 1991, a succession of
meteorological events combined over the northwest Atlantic Ocean resulting in a
series of extraordinary ocean waves and swells. Driven and maintained by persistent,
near-hurricane force winds, these waves and swells spread to the south and
southwest before crashing onto the North American coast and the northern shores of
the islands of the western Atlantic. Although New England, closest to the storm,
received the hardest' blows, widespread destruction was the rule as far south as Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, while scattered damage occurred to southern Florida and the
north coast of Puerto Rico.

During the course of its investigation, the NOAA Disaster Survey Team (DST) traveled
along the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine. Overall, the Team found that the
system established to develop and disseminate coastal flood watches, warnings, and
statements worked well. The several NWS offices involved--national, regional, and
local --recog n ized the threat early and did yeoman work in keeping Federal, state, and
local emergency officials; the media; and the public informed with clear, concise, and
timely products.

The Team feels, however, that there are some problems that need to be addressed.
These are discussed in the pages that follow and are summarized in the findings and
recommendations section of this report. In general, there are three areas that require
the most attention: data availability, guidance inadequacy, and public response.

Data Availability

All NWS warning products must begin with reliable and timely observations. The
Team found that there are not enough water level observation sites along the East
Coast. Where these sites do exist, there is not adequate real-time access by the
forecasters to the data provided. Further, the Team found a disturbing shortage of
basic marine weather observations available. Specifically, there are too few Coastal
Marine Automated Network (OMAN) units and buoys along the East Coast. Thus, in
many cases, the forecasters are not able to adequately monitor existing conditions.

Guidance Inadequacy

The various numerical models available provided forecasters with very good guidance
on open ocean conditions and on the movements and intensity changes of the
weather systems affecting the storm. However, the guidance as to coastal conditions
was unreliable and, in at least one case, actually inhibited an early warning issuance.

vii,

Current development activities on an extratropical coastal storm surge model and a
coastal wave prediction system need to be accentuated.

Public Response

Excellent warnings and statements were disseminated by the NWS to state and local
emergency service officials and to the media. In general, the response by these
groups of people was excellent. The media forwarded this information to the public in
a timely fashion. The emergency service personnel were ready ahead of time to take
appropriate actions.

In most cases, however, the public either did not respond or they responded
improperly. Many people did not perceive this coastal storm as a threat to them. It is
apparent to the Team that a public education campaign is needed to make sure
people understand the potential of coastal flooding. Such a campaign needs to
include the utilization of the NOAA Weather Radio (NWR). The radio's effectiveness
in such places as the Outer Banks of North Carolina highlights its potential as a tool
for alerting and informing the public.

viii

FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

THE EVENT AND ITS IMPACT (CHAPTER 1)

Finding 1:
A coastal flood of unusually long duration and intensity occurred during late
October 1991, affecting areas along the entire east coast of the United States and
Puerto Rico. This storm caused millions of dollars in damage to beaches and
man-made beachfront structures, including the seaside home of President George
Bush.

-DATA ACQUISITION- AND AVAILABILITY (CHAPTER 111)

Finding 2:
The availability and continuity of an adequate, reliable, and timely data base
(consisting of meteorological observations, sea state conditions, and water level
measurements) is vital if NWS offices are to provide accurate and timely coastal
flood watches and warnings. This includes those areas behind barrier islands,
particularly where large rivers or embayments are involved (e.g., Pamlico Sound)
so that adequate warning for seiches and coastal flooding can be given.

Recommendation 2-1:
NWS and National Ocean Service (NOS) should implement a system that will
ensure that local NWS offices will have real-time, 24-hour access to reliable water
level measurements especially from critical tide gage stations. This should
include those stations behind the various oceanic barriers. The availability of
these data is vital to NWS offices responsible for issuing coastal flood watches
and warnings.

Recommendation 2-2:
The phaseover from the Water Level Telemetry System (WLTS) to Next
Generation Water Level Measurement System (NGWLMS) technology must be
accomplished only after all questions and reservations about the new system have
been answered and the operational implementation of the new system has been
agreed to by both NWS and NOS.

Recommendation 2-3:
The NWS should install an adequate marine observational network that would fill
the gaps in the current arrangement and would provide the minimum coverage
necessary for the reconfigured forecast areas in the modernized NWS. This
network should include shoreline/shallow water wave height measurements.

Finding 3:
A water level value relayed to WSFO Portland, Maine, from a properly operating
gage was discounted by forecasters due to past problems with the gage. The
coastal flood warning was issued only after electronics technicians verified that the
earlier reading was correct, some 3 hours after the threshold value was reached.

Recommendation 3-1:
Water levels should be monitored on a regular basis, either manually or
automatically, so that NWS forecasters are aware of possible gage problems and
so that water level trends can be observed.

Finding 4:
Marine weather data are not as accessible to NWS forecasters as are land-based
data making the use of this information more difficult.

Recommendation 4-1:
The NWS should ensure that marine weather data are integrated into the
Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) hourly surface plots for use
at local offices having marine responsibility. The Ocean Products Center should
seek other ways to bring needed data to the high seas forecasters of the Satellite
Marine Section (SMS) at NMC.

Recommendation 4-2:
The NWS should explore adapting the marine monitoring (MARMON) program,
developed at WSFO Cleveland and utilized across the Great Lakes, to assist
forecasters in monitoring conditions along the East Coast.

PREPAREDNESS(CHAPTERIV)

Finding 5:
On-station standard operating procedures (SOP) varied widely from one station to
another. In some cases, guidance materials were not complete or clear enough
for a station's most inexperienced members to carry out their duties with the
confidence that they had enough information to make the best decisions possible.

Recommendation 5-1:
All local managers should review their Station Duty Manuals (SDM), checklists,
emergency procedures, etc., regarding coastal flooding to ensure they are
complete, clear, concise, and up to date.

Finding 6:
Station drills on coastal flooding are not common practice. at all offices having
such responsibility.

Recommendation 6-1:
Drills should be scheduled at all stations with a frequency that will keep coastal
flood procedures fresh in the minds of all watchstanders. Actual coastal flood
events could be substituted for a drill.

WARNING SERVICES (CHAPTER V)

Finding 7:
NMC and coastal WSFOs and Weather Service Offices (WSO) recognized the
potential for a dangerous ocean storm several days before the storm's major
impact on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coastlines. Overall, notification of
emergency officials and watch/warning lead times were sufficient for effective
preparedness actions yielding a remarkably low loss of life.

Recommendation 7-1:
Appropriate recognition is warranted for individuals and organizations who played
pivotal roles in ensuring the effective performance of the warning process.

Finding 8:
Overall, the various atmospheric models performed well. However, statistical
output from the NMC Marine Product-East Coast Storm Surge (MRPECS)
program was consistently too conservative for this storm and may have inhibited
warning effectiveness. Also, forecasters were unfamiliar with its usefulness in
forecasting wave conditions during long duration storms.

Recommendation 8-1:
NOAA should be encouraged to complete the development of an extratropical
storm surge model.

Recommendation 8-2:
NOAA should finalize development of a replacement for the MRPECS program
having sufficient resolution and coupling the NMC deep water wave model to the
shallow, coastal areas. Further, NWS should ensure that, once developed, the
benefits and utilities of this guidance are made known to field personnel.

Finding 9:
In some cases, the public was drawn to the coast to witness the power of the
heavy surf. This created traffic problems that may have obstructed emergency
actions.

Recommendation 9-1:
NWS offices, working with local emergency managers, are encouraged to develop
wording for use in coastal products designed to discourage spectators from going
to the coast during coastal flood and high surf episodes.

COORDINATION AND DISSEMINATION (CHAPTER VI)

Finding 10:
Although NAWAS (National Warning System) was used, its fullest capability was
not realized because dissemination to local offices was slow or did not occur.

Recommendation 10-1:
NWS managers at all levels should work with their NAWAS system managers to
review dissemination procedures and see if these can be strengthened.

Finding 11:
The NOAA Weather Wire Services (NWWS) does not appear to be the total
answer for disseminating emergency weather information to state and local
emergency service managers.

Recommendation 11 -1:
The NWS needs to strongly encourage those states subscribing to the NWWS to
install automatic systems for distributing emergency information to appropriate
local officials. Other alternatives for quickly and personally delivering such
information to key state and local decision makers, such as the New York
Statewide Police Information Network (NYSPIN), need to be explored and
developed.

USER RESPONSE (CHAPTER VII)

Finding 12:
Response by the emergency management community and by the various media
was generally excellent. Public response to this storm, and to coastal flood
watches and warnings in general, was generally poor.

Recommendation 12-1:
The rapport and personal contacts between NWS officials and emergency
managers at all levels must be maintained especially during the NWS
modernization. This can be accomplished only through frequent visits between
NWS personnel and state and local emergency officials. The NWS should look at
other ways of coordinating with and informing emergency managers at whatever
level is necessary during time-critical events.

Recommendation 12-2:
The NWS should investigate whether some minimum standard of preparedness
training should be provided, through briefings or some other mechanism, to high
level officials (e.g., mayors and governors) who can play a critical role in
responses (e.g., evacuations)-to emergency situations.

Findinq 13:
Many residents contacted by the DST said that they did not think the storm would
be as devastating as it was and took no action to protect their property or to

xii

evacuate. Since this was not a hurricane and, in many locations, was not
accompanied by "significant weather," the storm was not perceived as a real
danger.

Recommendation 13-1:
The NWS should investigate the feasibility of developing an intensity scale for
extratropical storms patterned after the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale
for tropical systems.

Recommendation 13-2.
NWS offices are strongly encouraged to continue the practice of comparing
potentially damaging storms with noteworthy storms,of the past, thereby
increasing the sense of urgency to the general public.

Recommendation 13-3:
NWS should produce a pamphlet dedicated solely to coastal flooding. This needs
to be done as part of a systematic public information campaign designed to
educate the coastal public on the dangers of coastal storms. This campaign could
also include press conferences, now used to increase hurricane awareness, public
information statements (PNS), and Public Service Announcements.

Finding 14:
Especially in New England, the NWR is not used by the general public as widely
as it could be.

Recommendation 14-1:
The existence of NWR needs to be more highly publicized. In communities where
NWR is widely accepted (e.g., the Cape Hatteras area), it is highly successful in
keeping both local officials and the general public informed. Local managers
should use whatever publicity sources they have available, including Public
Service Announcements in the local media to encourage the use of NWR.

xiii

CHAPTER I -- THE EVENT AND ITS IMPACT

A series of extraordinary meteorological events during the week of October 27, 1991,
set the stage for a major coastal flood and erosion event. Although principally
affecting sections of the East Coast from Maine through North Carolina, the impact of
the storm was felt south from there to the southernmost reaches of Florida, across
much of the Bahamas, and as far south as Puerto Rico. Flooding began early and
continued throughout the week. The worst impacts, however, were experienced on
October 30 and 31. For this reason, the storm will likely go down in the annals of
meteorological history as the "Halloween Nor'easter of 1991."

The event was especially noteworthy for the following reasons.

a. The storm was of unusually long duration. For example, in North Carolina a
heavy surf advisory was in effect for 5.5 days, and a coastal flood warning was in
effect for 3.5 days.

b. With the exception of Cape Cod and the eastern shore of Massachusetts which
experienced hurricane force wind gusts and heavy rain, the coastal flooding along
the remainder of the East Coast was accompanied by relatively benign weather.

c. The coastal flooding was generated by three separate and distinct synoptic-scale
systems which contributed individually and in combination to produce the
damaging high seas.

d. Coastal flooding was exacerbated when the intense extratropical storm, the third
and most potent of the three systems, moved in a very atypical path (i.e., from
east to west to south) almost totally opposite the normal storm track, keeping the
wave-generating fetch much closer to and pointed directly toward the North
American mainland.

An extensive discussion of the meteorology associated with the Halloween
Nor'easter of 1991 is contained in Chapter 11. For the purposes of this chapter, the
impacts from the interactions of the various weather features will all be con6%idered
together under the generic term "storm."

The wind fields generated by the storm covered an extremely large area extending
hundreds of miles. This resulted in a tremendous fetch length ranging from south of
Labrador to the coast of Florida (figure 1). As the winds persisted, they generated
seas over 40 feet (ft) in height. This was somewhat similar to the "Ash Wednesday

Survey Area

L- Approximate Storm Track

........ ....
....... ......

......... .........
........ ..........
........ ...........
....... ...........
...... ...........
... ..........
...........
...........
...........
..........
Other Impact Areas

..........

Figure 1. Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 ... Overview

Storm" of March 1962, in that the long fetch all 'owed big waves to develop. In areas
close to the center of such a tempest, most of the wind energy generally goes into
forming shorter-period, wind-driven waves. However, as these waves propagate away
from the storm, they are damped much more than are the longer-period waves. What
results is called a swell (i.e., the long-period waves that can travel to and impact a
coastline thousands of miles away. An excellent example is the swells that crash on
the beaches of Oahu, Hawaii. These are often generated by systems halfway across
the Pacific and impact Oahu days later.)

Developing after October 27, these swells, traveling unobstructed to the south and
southwest, had a clear path to the United States.coast bringing abnormally high waves
and extreme water levels. Indeed, ocean levels were raised to such an extent that the
water acted almost like a dam retarding outward tidal flows and even inhibiting river
waters from disgorging into the sea. Flooding in low-lying areas caused by the backup
of such flows was seen in such unlikely places as along the Hudson River north to
Albany and Troy, New York, and the Potomac River north to metropolitan Washington,
D.C. Both of these are over 100 miles from the sea.

Near the coast, the ocean responds to any noreaster through storm surge as well as
through local wave generation. The term "storm surge" is defined as the difference
between the observed tide gage water level and the predicted astronomical tide level.
Note that this definition excludes waves. These features are damped out by the
action of the stilling-well, that part of a tidal gage system holding the water to be
measured, and by the longer averaging time of most tide gages.

Tide'gages along the East Coast measured storm surges that ranged from just over
5 ft at Boston's gage to roughly 2 ft along North Carolina's Outer Banks. (See tables I
and 11 for water levels measured during this storm and for comparisons with earlier
record levels.)

Damage along the coastlines was caused by a combination of relatively high tides,
high storm surge levels, and large waves which for several days continuously pounded
the shoreline. At low tide, even a fairly large wave will have comparatively little impact
on structures. However, when the water level at low tide raises to equal the mean
high water mark, the threat from such waves increases. When several feet of storm
surge strikes the coastline coincident with high tide, these waves can cause profound
damage of the type incurred from this storm.

As experienced during the Halloween Noreaster of 1991, a storm of long duration
will impact several tidal cycles. (On the East Coast, one tide cycle is completed about
every 12 1/2 hours.) This is in contrast to a fast-moving storm, like a hurricane, where
only those tide levels during the few hours of the event are critical.

TABLE I
MAXIMUM STORM SURGE - HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991

Station Date/Time Obsvd. Pred. Diff.

Eastport, ME 10/301048 4.99 2.30 2.69
Cutler, ME 10/30 1000 4.14 1.32 2.82
Portland, ME 10/301112 5.13 1.61 3.52
Boston, MA 10/302042 8.57 3.46 5.11
Woods Hole, MA 10/302318 5.07 0.72 4.35
Nantucket, MA 10/30 1500 7.42 2.82 4.60
Newport, RI 10/31 0106 7.32 3.30 4.02
Providence, RI 10/31 0130 7.95 4.54 3.41
New London, CT 10/31 0312 6.69 2.65 4.04
Montauk, NY 10/31 0218 6.60 2.16 4.44
Bridgeport, CT 10/31 0500 11.50 6.64 4.86
Port Jefferson, NY 10/31 0425 11.63 6.78 4.85
Willets Point, NY 10/31 0436 12.24 7.15 5.09
The Battery, NY 10/31 0430 8.42 3.48 4.94
Sandy Hook, NJ 10/31 0406 8.38 3.44 4.94
Barnegat Inlet, NJ 10/31 0654 4.49 0.22 4.27
Atlantic City, NJ 10/31 0718 5.31 0.66 4.65
Cape May, NJ 10/31 0800 4.55 0.65 3.90
Philadelphia, PA 10/31 1600 5.27 1.21 4.06
Lewes, DE 10/31 0906 4.56 0.66 3.90
Ocean City, MD 10/31 1848 4.68 0.88 3.80
Cambridge, MD 11/01 0548 2.67 0.46 2.21
Annaplois, MD 11/01 0530 3.18 0.54 2.64
Baltimore, MD 11/01 0712 3.19 0.43 2.76
Washington, DC 11/01 1200 3.75 0.99 2.76
Colonial Beach, VA 11/01 0400 3.07 0.27 2.80
Lewisetta, VA 11/01 0200 3.03 0.41 2.62
Hampton Roads, VA 10/31 1900 4.78 1.85 2.93
Ches.Bay Brdg., VA 10/31 1800 5.08 1.85 3.23
Cape Hatteras, NC 11/01 0600 3.93 1.78 2.15

Notes:
Date/Time shows the month and day and the hour and minute (in EST) of the maximum storm surge.

Observed and Predicted values are listed in feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW).

The Difference between the Observed and Predicted values is defined as the Storm Surge.

TABLE 11
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS - HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991
WITH HISTORICAL COMPARISONS

STATION Date/Time Obsvd. Record Height
Date Elev.
Eastport, ME 10/30 1606 20.24 6/77 24.12
Cutler, ME 10/30 1612 15.18 1/79 17.32
Portland, ME 10/30 1636 12.78 2/78 14.17
Boston, MA 10/30 1654 14.29 2/78 15.25
Woods Hole, MA 10/31 0100 5.22 8/54 10.39
Nantucket, MA 10/30 1730 8.11 1/87 6.58
Newport, RI 10/31 0136 7.34 9/38 13.53
Providence, RI 10/31 0136 7.81 9/38 17.71
New London, CT 10/31 0330 6.65 9/38 10.76
Montauk, NY 10/31 0306 6.57 8/54 8.68
Bridgeport, CT 10/31 0518 11.55 9/38 12.44
Port Jefferson, NY 10/31 0530 11.62 2/78 12.12
Willets Point, NY 10/31 0524 12.39 9/38 16.90
The Battery, NY 10/31 0324 8.94 9/60 10.23
Sandy Hook, NJ 10/31 0248 8.80 3/62 10.33
Barnegat Inlet, NJ 10/31 0230 5.27 8/76 5.48
Atlantic City, NJ 10/31 0154 8.19 9/44 9.20
Cape May, NJ 10/31 1512 8.43 9/85 9.09
Philadelphia, PA 10/31 2024 9.04 11/50 10.79
Lewes, DE 10/31 1500 7.81 3/62 9.49
Ocean CitYr MD 10/31 1348 7.16 9/85 7.54
Cambridger MD 10/31 2318 4.50 9/79 4.87
Baltimorer MD 11/01 0200 4.03 8/33 7.93
Annapolis, MD 11/01 0036 3.85 8/33 6.40
Washington, DC 11/01 0254 5.34 10/42 11.29
Colonial Beach, VA 11/01 0942 4.32 9/79 4.36
Lewisetta, VA 11/01 0818 4.01 3/83 3.62
Hampton Roads, VA 10/31 1618 5.61 8/33 8.39
Ches.Bay Brdg., VA 10/31 1512 5.83 4/78 6.36
Cape HatteraSr NC 10/31 1336 5.64 9/85 5.84

Note:
Date/Time shows the month and day and the hour and minute (in EST) of the
highest observed water level.

The highest observed water level is given in feet above Mean Lower Low Water
(MLLW).

The Record Height contains the month and year when the highest water level
was measured and the height of that measurement in feet above MLLW.

Tables 1 and 2 are derived from NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM NOS
OES, Effects of the Late October 1991 North Atlantic Extra-
Tropical Storm on Water Levels, dated January, 1992.

This storm came less than one week after spring tides, the highest tides of the month.
Had the storm come 5 days earlier, astronomical tides would have been about 1 ft
higher along most of the coast--approximately 1 1/2 ft higher at Boston. As a rule,
adding the value of the astronomical tide to the storm surge seems to hold. That
would imply that water levels at Boston would have been about 1 1/2 ft above the
levels they actually experienced, while other locations would have been about a foot
above observed levels. This extra 1 1/2 ft might have been enough to flood,part of
the downtown section of the city.

The closest in-shore wave gage data were observed approximately 2 miles offshore
near the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) pier at Duck, North Carolina
(figure 2). There, wave heights of 14 ft were observed on the afternoon of
October 30. The buoy at Diamond Shoals, 12 nautical miles (nm) southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, observed its highest waves (25-27 ft) at roughly the same
time. These waves are clearly swell, indicated by their long (18 second) wave
periods. A buoy within sight of Boston (figure 3) measured significant wave heights of
over 30 ft-- some of the highest waves ever recorded at that location by the
NWS/National Data Buoy Center (NDBC).

In the hardest hit New England communities, seashore homes, roads, sewer/water
lines, docks and piers, and coastal protection projects (e.g., seawalls, revetments and
groins) were primary targets. Barrier beaches were breached and sand dunes and
coastal bluffs eroded. In some cases up to 50 ft of dunes, beaches, or salt marshes
vanished. There were some reports of oil spills.

Also hard hit were New England lighthouses. For example, the storm extinguished the
light in the Isles of Shoals Lighthouse (figure 4) and destroyed its generator, control
huts, boathouse and ramp, and a walkway from the helicopter pad to the house. Its
emergency horn and one fuel tank were missing, and two fuel tanks were knocked
over.

The most visible casualty of the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 was President Bush's
house located in Kennebunkport, Maine. The President's home, which has withstood
many past storms, suffered severe damage to its ground floor from wave battering.
The degree of damage to the President's house and other structures along the coast
served to highlight the awesome power of the ocean and th6 problems faced by an
increasing population along the Nation's shorelines.

Without a doubt, the east coast and coincident islands of Massachusetts, being
closest to and directly downfetch from the strongest core of the storm, took the most
severe pounding. It was locally compared with the Blizzard of February 1978, which
has been considered the benchmark nor'easter in this area. Particularly hard hit were
parts of Salisbury, Gloucester, Revere, Lynn, Hull, Scituate (especially Peggotty Beach
and the Humarock area), Marshfield, Plymouth (Whitehorse Beach), Chatham

Atlantic City

Ventnor Pier

Ocean City

Dewey
Rehoboth
Bethany

Sandbridge Beach

Albemarle Sound

Duck Pier
Kitty Hawk
Kill Devil Hills
N Hea
MOregon Inlet

uxton
Pamlico Sound H.Ileras On MDiamond Shoals

Ocracoke

Figure 2. MId-AtIantIc Locations Impacted by the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991.

MDR 1

MISM1
IOSN3 044005
44013

A N6 UZM3 044008
44025 44011

44012 0 44004
44009

CHLV2

44014

DSLN7
41001

Figure 3. Buoy and C-MAN Stations - Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States.

Matinicus Rock

Portland Harbor
Portsmouth Kennebunkport
Isle of Shoals
Hampton Salisbury

Lynn Gloucester
Revere
Hull Boston Harbor
Cohasset Beac Scituate
arshfield
Plymouth

Chatham

Bri geport 1&antucket
Pt. Judith

hampton Beach
Seagat @W-tl
Staten Island
Ambrose Light

Atlantic City
Ventnor Pier

Ocean City

Figure 4. Nortbeast Locations Impacted by the Halloween Noreaster of 1991.

(especially North Beach and Morris Island areas), and Nantucket (especially Brant
Point). In the town of Scituate alone, according to the American Red Cross, over
1000 single-family dwellings were impacted by the storm with 118 destroyed and
453 suffering major damage.

Besides extensive structural damage to public and private facilities along the
Massachusetts coast, considerable boating and fishing gear damage also occurred.
The damage to and loss of lobster pots may well have devastating results to people in
an industry that has already been experiencing hard economic times.

Relatively few casualties resulted in Massachusetts, however. A 62-year-old man,
suffered a fatal heart attack in Quincy after tying down his yacht. The Coast Guard is
investigating the disappearance of the "Andrea Gail," a deep sea fishing boat with a
crew of five out of Gloucester which was reported lost out in the Georges Banks. Two
elderly people apparently suffered minor injuries from the wind on Nantucket. A
summation of casualties and damages is included in table Ill.

The coastal flood damage dwarfed the significance of other aspects of the storm.
However, because Massachusetts was close enough to the storm's core to receive its
full effect, high winds resulted in some direct property damage and caused power
outages by downed tree limbs. Additionally, heavy rainfall occurred in some
southeastern areas of the state (e.g., 5.57 inches at Blue Hill, Massachusetts,
Observatory).

Across coastal sections of Maine and New Hampshire, the most significant damage
was limited to those communities which received direct wave battering from the ocean.
According to the American Red Cross, 16 single-family dwellings were destroyed while
another 51 suffered major damage in York County, Maine. Portsmouth, New
Hampshire, suffered a similar blow with 19 single-family dwellings destroyed and 130
reporting major damage. The Hampton area of New Hampshire was also particularly
hard hit. In Kennebunkport, outside of the destruction noted to the President's home,
fishermen lost an estimated $1.5 million in gear.

Rhode Island and Connecticut were somewhat protected from the most direct effects
of the storm. However, some coastal damage similar to that described above was felt.
Also, a fisherman was presumed to have been swept off the rocks and drowned near
Pt. Judith.

The coastal regions of New York and New Jersey were impacted to a lesser degree,
although extensive coastal flooding and beach erosion occurred (figure 5). Homes
(basements and first levels), public buildings, coastal roads, and railroad tracks were
flooded. In Suffolk County on Long Island's south shore, more than 40 residences
were destroyed and another 35 seriously damaged. Also particularly hard hit was the
private community of Seagate located just west of Coney Island in New York City.

TABLE III
DAMAGE ESTIMATES (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Damage Estimates (millions of dollars)

States Death Injury Sum AIA* NFIP** Other#

ME 0 0 3.0 1.5 1.5
NH 0 0 .7 - .7 -
MA 2 2 110.1 40.0 65.6 4.5
RI 1 0 5.0 5.0 - -
CT 0 0 3.9 3.0 .9 -
NY 4 0 31.2 10.0 16.2 5.0
NJ 0 0 8.4 2.0 5.4 1.0
DE 0 0 - - - -
MD 0 0
DC 0 0 - -
VA 0 0 .1 - .1
NC 0 0 2.2 2.2 -
SC 0 0 - -
GA 0 0 - -
FL 0 14 3.1 3.1
PR 0 0 - -
OFSHR 5 0 .5 - .5

TOTAL 12 16 168.2 60.0 92.5 15.7

Derived from statistics provided by the American Insurance Association (AIA). Claims
represent losses primarily from wind damage.

Derived from statistics provided by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
Claims represent losses primarily from water damage.

Damages were below the insurance organization's threshold, were considered to be
too minor for tabulation, or were unreported.

Estimates of other losses were made where possible using existing information.
However, millions of dollars in losses due to non-insured "public" items, such as
cleanup costs, beach erosion, seawall and pier damage, lighthouse damage, etc., are
not included in this list. Also not available are specific tourist dollar losses.

Portions of the boardwalks in Atlantic City and Ocean City, New Jersey, were
extensively damaged. Further, the widespread flooding closed off two major roadways
into Atlantic City for several hours. The resulting cancellation of buses carrying
tourists into the cities' casinos caused a significant economic loss to the area.

The New York and New Jersey coastal regions witnessed at least four storm-related
casualties. On October 30 at the height of the storm, an Air National Guard helicopter
crashed about 60 miles south of Long Island during a rescue mission. (The.helicopter
ran out of fuel.) Four of the five-person crew were rescued; the fifth member was
neverfound.

That same night, a man who was fishing alone on a Meadowbrook Parkway
drawbridge fell to his death. The specific cause of his death is unknown. On
November 2, the body of a teenage boy, believed to be 1 of 2 Staten Island youths
who disappeared while fishing during the storm, washed up in the Belford section of
Middletown Township. A Coast Guard helicopter unsuccessfully searched the area for
the second youth. The Coast Guard did, however, successfully rescue 10 people from
the turbulent waters of Long Island Sound during the storm.

Along the Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia coasts, moderate to severe beach erosion
occurred primarily on October 30 and 31. In Delaware, damage was most extensive
at Bethany, Dewey, and Rehoboth Beaches. Along the Virginia coast, most of the
damage-occurred along Sandbridge Beach. One bridge access washed out in
Hampton Roads. In Maryland, Ocean City officials assessed the damage as
"minimal." This may, however, have been the.result of a beach renourishment/dune

-13
ti rli
h7
@b

MINN
,, V-11

'01

oe
A

7.,

7@,

Figure 5. Support pilings, previously buried, have been exposed by severe water action,
Westhampton Beach, New York. Photo courtesy of Mark Waters

project completed earlier this year designed specifically to protect the community from
storms such as this.

While the Mid-Atlantic coastline of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia was spared the
worst effects of this event, the story was different for portions of the North Carolina
shoreline. The extended effects of the storm were most apparent in this region.
Sustained winds reached gale force on the Outer Banks, but the weather was
characterized by mostly clear skies. Ocean flooding and waves were the only
significant sources of destruction. Damage was limited to the ocean beachfront of
Currituck and Dare Counties north from Cape Hatteras.

While flooding in North Carolina reached its maximum on October 31, pounding surf
attacked and eroded the protective dunes for days before and after that time. Along
the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, the dunes were cut in over a dozen places.
Sand from the ocean side was washed hundreds of yards inland almost crossing the
narrow island. Highway 12 was closed first by water and later by sand deposits up to
4 ft deep. Ferry service to Hatteras Island from Ocracoke was suspended because of
flooding near the ferry dock.

The towns of Nags Head, Kitty Hawk, and Kill Devil Hills had flooding for several
blocks inland from the beach. Several homes and two or three motels were destroyed
or severely damaged by the surf. A total of 76 buildings were condemned in Dare
County, North Carolina, alone. Many suffered structural damage while others were
condemned because their sewage systems were exposed. The flooding has been
called the worst to affect the Outer Banks since the Ash Wednesday Storm of
March 1962.

South from North Carolina, damage was less severe and the impacted areas more
widely separated. However, effects were reported even along the north coast of
Puerto Rico, parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and exposed shores of the Bahamas. In
Florida, over $3 million in damage and 14 minor injuries were attributed to the swell
generated by the storm. This included the destruction of that portion of the Lake
Worth, Florida, pier on which an NOS tide gage and an NWS CMAN *unit were
located. Again, the wave action, spawned over 1000 nm from where the waves
reached shore, was the primary cause of the damage.

Overall casualty and damage estimates from the storm are summarized in table Ill.

An additional factor should be noted. About a week after this storm, a second coastal
flood episode impacted the Mid-Atlantic coast. Weakened by the battering from
7 days earlier, many coastal sand dunes could not provide the protection normally
expected. Also, several structures that withstood the earlier assault fell during this
second attack. These damages would probably not have occurred without the
Halloween Nor'easter of 1991.

CHAPTER 11 -- SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS OF EVENT

OVERVIEW

As briefly mentioned in Chapter 1, three significant meteorological systems contributed
to the coastal flooding and wave damage along the east coast of the United States
during the week of October 27-November 2, 1991.

System number 1. On October 26, buoy reports indicated an intensifying subtropical
low near Bermuda was beginning to generate large oceanic swells. By October 27,
this low had evolved first into a tropical storm and then quickly strengthened to
become a late season hu rricane--G race. Located about 200 nm southwest of
Bermuda, Hurricane Grace was forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to
move northwest, in a general direction toward the North Carolina coast, but to remain
well offshore. The winds generated by this storm provided a significant northeast to
easterly fetch along the United States east coast south of the Virginia Cape$ and were
the primary cause of heavy surf along the Outer Banks.

System number 2. As Grace was intensifying, a near record 1046 millibar (mb)
anticyclone which had been building over northern Quebec began spreading high
pressure southward. By October 28, the leading edge of this deep air mass, marked
by a strong cold front, had pushed southward through North Carolina east of the
Appalachian Mountains and southeastward over the North Atlantic across Nova Scotia
and New England. In so doing, it stopped the hurricane's drift toward the coast and
forced it to turn northward. The high persisted through midweek dominating the entire
Eastern Seaboard.

System number 3. As the cold front moved offshore, a low pressure cell, which had
formed on and was traveling northeast along this front, reached the ocean southeast
of the Canadian Maritimes. This occurred simultaneously with Grace reaching its
maximum potency. Encountering Grace's circulation and moisture, this low stalled
and strengthened. Fed by a combination of cold, dry, arctic air from the high and
warm, moist, subtropical air from Grace, the low, located near 38ON 60OW, became
extremely intense having a central pressure of about 972 mb. The rapidity of the
intensification is shown by the fact that beginning at 12 Universal Coordinated Time
(UTC), October 29, the central pressure dropped about 15 mb in 12 hours and about
28 mb in 24 hours. By this time, the low had sapped the energy and absorbed the
remnants of Hurricane Grace and, as the high weakened, had begun a westward drift
toward the upper east coast of the United States.

The combination of these three factors--hurricane, strengthening low south of the
Maritimes, and high pressure along the East Coast--produced a nearly 1200 nm fetch
of gale and storm force north to northeast winds from Newfoundland to the Florida
coast which was to continue. for days.

DAILY SYNOPSES

SATURDAY, October 26,1991

At 06 UTC, satellite imagery and data buoy reports suggested that a surface
subtropical low, centered at 270N 660W, was strengthening. In its high seas forecast,
the NHC was carrying a gale warning in association with this system. At the same
time the imagery hinted of some amplification of an inverted upper air trough to the
northeast of this low.

The 00 UTC run of the NMC aviation weather forecast (AVN) model supported the
continued amplification of the inverted trough by tightening the gradient north of 350N
during the next 48 hours. Such amplification generally indicates that the low will
continue to intensify.

At this same time, a weak wave appeared in the lower Midwest, on a cold front
extending northeast into Canada. This front denoted the leading edge of a deep,
strong anticyclone that had formed over the Northwest Territories and intensified over
Quebec.

Figures 6 through 17 contain extracts from the NMC surface analyses from
October 27 through November 1. Figures 18 through 25 contain infrared (18-21) and
water vapor (22-25) satellite photographs for this same period.

SUNDAY, October 27,1991

At 16 UTC, the subtropical low, now located at 30.40N 66.60W, had intensified and
reached tropical storm status. NHC named it Grace. Satellite imagery indicated it had
a slow westward movement. Storm force winds extended out to 350 nm from Grace's
center over its northern semicircle while winds to 30 knots (kt) continued out another
130 nm. By 22 UTC, Grace, continuing to strengthen, was upgraded to hurricane
status. I

Coincidentally, a strong short-wave trough aloft, associated with the Canadian cold
front, moved along the U.S.-Canadian border throughout the day. During the night,
the cold front passed through New England toward the south and southeast. The
wave, now a low but still weak, was centered over eastern Lake Ontario and was
forecast by the AVN model to move east-southeast to roughly 430N 580W. At this
same time, the high, continuing to build, was forecast to follow along moving from just
east of Hudson Bay to the east-southeast. The result of all this would be a greatly
increased pressure gradient along the east coast of the U.S. during the next 36 hours.

so-

Figure 6. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - 27 October 1991.

U-TC surtace Anal YSIS V October iggi.

6 .-OW-
%TMC'. e,s t

Figure 8. 0000 UTC SurfaCe AnalySIS - 28 OOtObOr 1991 -

46
.-4-

-X

,Z@; Hu'rrica@e "'Grace
31 .5@T .2w
NMC S psn..

Figure 9. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 28 October 1991.

46',

Hurrica'e-"Crace"
-33.1N 6 .9W. . . . . . . .
C ID S.

Figure 10. 0000 UTC Sutlace Analysis - 29 October 1991.

8118

65-

-H rri6ane-"Gracel'
.3 W63.0
C est..p n.

Figure 11. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 29 October 1991.

44.

Figure 12. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - 30 October 1991.

.2. . . . . . . . . .

55- SO-

Figure 13. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 30 October 1991.

Figure 14. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - 31 October 1991.

-40

'20

Figure 15. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 31 October 1991.

?2r7-

Figure 16. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - I 14ovember 1991.

Figure 17. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - I November 1991.

Z@t
"I @ 41

Y@
4, oar,,,:
W

'Aw
@5

"P4

511

...........

Figure 18. 1201 UTC 28 October 1991 GOES Infared Image - Hurricane Grace near Bermuda/Developing Low east of Maine.

%4'

t
t

V7,

Figure 19. 1201 UTC 29 October 1991 GOES Infrared Image - Cold front from North Atlantic Low is nearing Grace.
I ' o" -
Ite,

A
"Op 4<9,
"W
IL

CA)

"ilk

Figure 20. 1201 UTC 30 October 1991 GOES infrared Image - North Atlantic Low at its most intense.

@@M V,

y, M"

AxA,@,

CA)
'Adn*

Figure 21. 1201 UTC 31 October 1991 GOES Infrared Image - North Atlantic Low weakening off mid-Atlantic coast.

--4b

At"I"
...... . ....

el,

CA3

711
'0141

IP
loo@

'N"

Figure 22. 0301 UTC 28 October 1991 GOES Water Vapor Image - Grace off Bermuda. Dry Canadian High north of New York.
L

Figure 23. 0301 UTC 29 October 1991 GOES Water Vapor Image - Weak eye of Grace still visible. Dry Air over Northeast U.S.

CA)

OIL

Figure 24. 0701 UTC 30 October 1991 GOES Water Vapor Image - Dry air being wrapped Into North Atlantic low.

At,
----- ------ ...

CA)

Fiqu
W
re 25, 0301 UTC 31 October 1991 GOES
Water Vapor Image Dry a
ir has wrapped I
1/2 times around North Atlantic Low.

MONDAY, October 28,1991

On October 28, a strong surface low pressure system had developed southeast of
Nova Scotia from what was originally the weak midwestern wave. This came as a
result of the interaction of the now quasi-stationary upper low over the western Atlantic
with a higher latitude short-wave trough. Further, Hurricane Grace, now situated west
of Bermuda, and the strong high pressure area, now centered north of New England
and at its near record peak strength, added to this intensification by supplying warm,
moist air and cold, dry air, respectively. These events led to a greatly tightened
pressure gradient between the surface low, the now dissipating hurricane, and the
Canadian high. As a result, late on October 28, a strong northeast fetch of gale force
winds developed and persisted over the oceanic area especially to the north and west
of the deepening low near Nova Scotia.

The 00 UTC, October 28, AVN model run dramatically strengthened the surface low.
By early morning, the extrerhe nature of the situation, hinted at the day before, was
apparent. At the same time (16 UTC) Grace, positioned at 32.70N 68.30W, was
moving north at 5 kt. The NHC forecast the hurricane to drift slowly to the northeast.
The developing oceanic low, now located at 430N 60OW, was forecast to move toward
the south-southeast at 10 kt to a position near 40ON 580W. Storm-force conditions
were forecast to exist by 00 UTC Tuesday. Winds of 50 to 75 kt with seas 25 to 36 ft
within 400 nm northwest semicircle were forecast.

TUESDAY, October 29,1991

The oceanic storm, previously stationary well southeast of Nova Scotia, began to
develop to the southwest and continued to intensify. At this same time, the now
downgraded Tropical Storm Grace began to lose its tropical characteristics and
weakened. The strong northeast fetch of winds, which had developed oil October 28,
persisted throughout the day, a consequence of the surface pressure differential
between the Canadian high and the Atlantic low. The swell activity continuing to be
spawned by this storm contributed to the start of beach erosion as early as the night
of October @8, while the erosion caused by Grace was abating. Some minor coastal
flooding was also reported at Chatham, Massachusetts.

Among the NWS forecasters involved, there was some concern as to which low center
the AVN model was trying to move to the southwest. The model was strengthening
an upper low and suggested a drift to the southwest. The satellite imagery seemed to
indicate that the strengthening upper low would develop a new surface low center
which would intensify.

The dangerous storm previously forecast was now fact. Movement to the southwest
at 10 kt was indicated. Lists of observed ship data confirmed the degree of intensity
associated with the wind and swell conditions. Two ships just east of Georges Bank,

for example, reported 40 and 43 ft combined seas. In the forecast, initial conditions
were listed as winds 50 to 75 kt and seas 35 to 50 ft within 400 nm over the northwest
semicircle.

WEDNESDAY, October 30,1991

The strong northeast fetch of gale and storm force winds persisted over the ocean
area through the night of October 30. The strong pressure differential between the
Canadian high and the Atlantic low was maintained throughout the day. This
extratropical storm continued moving west, entrained the tropical moisture from the
remnants of Tropical Storm Grace, and intensified further.

The storm continued west-northwest during the afternoon before turning southwest
and finally beginning to weaken on the night of October 30. Since the movement of
this storm was northeast to southwest, it arrived along the coastal United States via
the "back door." As a consequence, the normal experience of increasing cloudiness
associated with nor'easters at most of these coastal locations did not occur. The
majority of people along the Eastern Seaboard awoke Wednesday morning to
generally clear skies.

The NMC surface plot at 12 UTC showed a 977 mb pressure measurement from a
ship located at 39.50N 630W. The associated winds were given as 40 kt out of the
east-southeast. The surface analysis indicated a 972 mb low at 390N 640W. Satellite
image data, however, indicated that the low was a little farther north centering at 40ON
640W. The low had an extremely tight center. Winds of 55 to 70 kt and seas of 35 to
50 ft within 300 nm of the storm's northern semicircle and western quadrant were
forecast by SMS. This placed the western edge of the area of strongest winds directly
over Cape God.

The Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)
Data Utilization Center (VDUC) indicated the speed of the low to be 20 kt due west.
The NMC AVN and Nested Grid Model (NGM) were slow with the feature, had
positioned it too far south, and showed it to be significantly weaker than it actually
was. Much of the major damage along the southeastern Now England coast was to
occur over the next several hours.

The duration, length, and areal extent of the fetch associated with this oceanic storm
produced offshore seas reported to be 40 to 78 ft high. Closer to shore over the
continental shelf, seas built up as high as 25 to 40 ft. Gale force winds along the
southeastern New England coast increased to storm force. The Weather Service
Meteorological Observatory (WSMO) in Chatham, Massachusetts, recorded wind gusts
greater than 60 mph for more than 15 straight hours and greater than 70 mph for 6
hours. Compounding the problem, the strongest winds occurred near or shortly before
the afternoon high tide.

The most severe coastal flood damage was reported along the Massachusetts coast
in conjunction with the high tide. In Boston, this came at 4:33 pm while in Chatham at
5:05 pm. Tides were estimated to be 3 to 4 ft above the normal high tide along the
entire Massachusetts coast. At Boston, the peak tide during this storm was 14 feet
above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). The timing of the strongest winds with the
incoming high tide resulted in a tremendous build-up of seas just offshore and
produced destructive wave action.

THURSDAY, October 31,1991

The low was now at 380N 71.50W. Unlike most extratropical lows, it had formed and
maintained a well defined "eye." One ship reported winds of 55 kt: within 60 nrn to the
west of the storm's center. However, removed from its cold air source, the high
pressure air mass was becoming modified and the low, no longer able to feed off its
previous energy sources, was filling. All NIVIC models now showed that by Friday the
storm would rapidly weaken and move to the northeast.

Although weakening, the system still generated a significant northeast wind and
continued to force tides to be well above normal. However, the damage caused by
towering coastal waves did diminish. By this time, some of the more protected areas
had been affected. For example, Bridgeport, Connecticut's, Sikorsky Airport, at the
western end of Long Island Sound, experienced runway flooding Thursday morning
forcing a temporary closing of the airport.

FRIDAY, November 1, 1991

During the day, wind and sea conditions diminished considerably along the coast as
the large-scale pressure gradients abated. However, as the low pressure center
continued eastward, it moved over the warm Gulf Stream. The infusion of new energy
from this source reintensified the storm, again generated storm force winds and, as
seen on satellite photographs, produced an eyelike center surrounded by convection.
This development was confirmed by NHC-ordered aircraft reconnaissance.

Although NHC considered classifying this as a hurricane, NMC, NHC, and NWS
Headquarters decided against this to avoid unnecessarily confusing and alarming the
public.

SATURDAY, November 2,1991

Continuing northward toward Nova Scotia, the storm left the Gulf Stream and again
crossed over the cold North Atlantic. Early on the morning of November 2, the now
rapidly weakening storm made landfall just west of Halifax, Nova Scotia, terminating
the event.

SUMMARY

Overall, the NIVIC computer models did a good job giving adequate lead time for
warning purposes on the Atlantic High Seas. However, the development, strength,
and rapid westward motion of the surface low on the afternoon and evening of
Wednesday, October 30 was not handled well by the models. The surface low moved
much further west than prescribed by either the NGM or AVN and did so along 40ON
and not 380N as per model guidance. This rapid westward motion and the fact that
the low made it to 71OW before turning southwest away from the New England shore
contributed greatly to the coastal flooding and subsequent wave damage along the
New England Coast.

CHAPTER III - DATA ACQUISITION AND AVAILABILITY

COASTAL MARINE DATA SOURCES AND AVAILABILITY

Sea surface and marine weather observations utilized routinely by NWS forecasters
during coastal and high seas storm events come from several sources: (1) data
buoys deployed in both nearshore and offshore locations, (2) remote CMAN platforms,
(3) voluntary observing ships, (4) drifting buoys, and (5) NOS-maintained water level
gages. The buoys and the CMAN units are operated and maintained by the NDBC.

NDBC Systems

Moored buoys and CMAN stations maintained by the NDBC rely on the Geostationary
Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) system to telemeter hourly observations
from the observing platforms through the satellite and the National Environmental
Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Wallops Island facility to the. NWS
central and field offices. Observations are transmitted from the platforms hourly and
arrive at NWS field stations over the AFOS Network.

Although most of the network was operational, recent activity, specifically damage
caused by Hurricane Bob in August 1991, had depleted the available systems
somewhat. The Gulf of Maine data buoy, designated number 44005, was set adrift by
Bob and was retrieved by the Coast Guard later that month. Buoy 44004, located at
the former Ocean Station 'Hotel' near 38.50N 70.60W, failed in early August, was
reported adrift in September, and was subsequently retrieved. All other NDBC buoys
were on. station and reported throughout the storm@.

With respect to CMAN units, the sea temp erature sensor at'Diamond Shoals Light,
North Carolina (DSLN7), was inoperative during this event as a result of Hurricane
Bob in August. All other CMAN stations were providing reliable data at the beginning
of the event. However, damage to several of these stations occurred during the
storm.

According to weekly NDBC status reports, CMAN stations at Matinicus Rock, Maine
(MISM1), and Ambrose Light, New York (ALSN6), suffered so'me degradation of
reliability during the storm. For the period October 24 - 31, the report showed 95
percent and 98 percent data availability from these two stations, respectively.
However, for the period October 31 - November 7, only 83 percent and 90 percent of
all observations from these two sites were available due to intermittent transmission
problems and parity errors. Elsewhere, the station at Lake Worth, Florida (LKWFl),

was destroyed on October 31 when the pier on which it was mounted gave way during
the high waves that reached Florida.

National Ocean Service (NOS) Water Level Information

Water level information is provided to forecasters primarily f rorn the NOS-maintained
WLTS network in place at many United States coastal sites. This network of gages is
maintained by NOS primarily to record long- and short-term variations in water levels.
For these tasks, real-time data are not an NOS requirement. The NWS, because it
does have a requirement for real-time water level information during potential coastal
flooding and tsunami events, and the NOS have modified selected NOS gage
installations to allow for such real-time access.

Two methods of providing this access are now in use: (1) Handar, developed by
NWS as an offshoot of similar technology used on river gages, and
(2) TIDES-ABC, an NOS-developed software package designed to plot water level
readings from the past 24 hours against predicted tide heights.

Handar. technology, maintained by NWS, incorporates a programmable unit that
transmits the NOS water level gage data via commercial telephone line to a computer
or dumb terminal remotely located in an NWS field office. Either the field office can
initiate the call for a reading or the gage itself can initiate a call to a field office at a
certain time interval or whenever the gage height reaches a pre-set critical level.
Multiple readings each hour can be obtained by this system which also has the
capability to store several weeks' worth of data.

In the TIDES-ABC system, a tide gage and an NWS office computer are again
connected through a telephone line. The TIDES -ABC software at a local NWS office
initiates a phone call to one of several remote gages available to a particular office.
Water level observations for up to the past 24 hours are displayed graphically on the
computer screen along with the predicted water levels for the same period. In this
way, trends are readily apparent, and departures from tidal predictions can be seen at
a glance.

A disadvantage of TIDES-ABC is that it is more cumbersome and time-consuming to
use than a simple interrogation of a Handar-equipped gage. Especially in routine
situations where no departure from predicted values is expected, NWS forecasters
seem to prefer accessing the Handar equipment at locations where both methods of
real-time access are available.

As with Handar units, only selected gages are equipped to be accessed via
TIDES -ABC. A summary of water level data available during this event to the various
field offices involved is shown in table IV. Overall, tide gages along the East Coast
performed well throughout this event. However, some discrepancies were noted as
follows.

Station Tide Gage Site Maintained By Method of Data Access

WSFO PWM Portland Harbor, ME NOS Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit;
gage calls WSFO if level reaches 11.0 It
WSFO BOS Boston Harbor, MA NOS TIDES -ABC, dial-up access via NWS Handar unit
Charles R. Dam Tender Tender reads gage
Buzzard's Bay, MA USACE Remote dial-up access
New Bedford, MA USACE Remote dial-up access
Sandwich, MA USACE Remote dial-up access
Wing's Neck, MA USACE Remote dial-up access
Nantucket, MA Steamship Staff reading
Woods Hole, MA WHOI Staff reading
Oceanographic
Institute (WHOI)
Stamford, CT USACE Remote dial-up access
Providence, RI USACE Remote dial-up access
WSOBDR Bridgeport Hbr., CT NOS Dial-up access via NWS Handar
WSFO, NYC Willets Point, NY NOS TIDES ABC
4@- The Battery, NY NOS TIDECABC
Bergen Point, NJ NOS TIDES -ABC
Sandy Hook, NY NOS TIDES -ABC
WSO ACY Ventnor City Pier, NJ NOS Gage with NWS Handar unit calls ACY hourly and
when water level reaches 5.8 ft MLLW
Cape May, NJ NOS TIDES -ABC
Sandy Hook, NJ NOS TIDES -ABC
WSO ILG Ocean City, MD NOS Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit
WSO BWI Ocean City, MD NOS Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit
WSO ORF Hampton Roads, VA NOS Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit;
(Sewell's Pt) gage calls ORF if level reaches 4.0 ft MLLW
Ches. Bay Bridge, VA NOS TIDES-ABC; dial-up access via NWS Handar unit;
(South Is.) gage calls ORF if level reaches 4.0 ft MLLW
Windmill Point, VA NOS TIDES -ABC
Lewisetta, VA NOS TIDES -ABC
WSO HAT Cape Hatteras, NC NOS Gage with NWS Handar unit calls HAT hourly;
(Frisco) prints to Silent 700
Duck, NC USACE Dial-up access every hourly

TABLE IV. REAL-TIME WATER LEVEL INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO NWS FIELD OFFICES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS

(1) The NGWLMS gage at Atlantic City, New Jersey, which at the time of the
storm was undergoing pre-operational testing, reported water levels 0.9 ft lower than
the WLTS gage collocated with it and 1.4 ft lower than the WLTS gage at nearby
Ventnor Pier. Atlantic City data from the NGWLMS gage were not available to NWS
forecasters in real-time. Report of the discrepancy was made by the USACE to the
Official in Charge of WSO Atlantic City after the fact.

(2) The Ocean City, Maryland, WLTS gage was demolished by this storm and will
not be returned to service. The NGWLMS gage operating at this location is not
presently accessible by NWS field offices in real-time.

(3) The NOS gage collocated with the CMAN station at Lake Worth, Florida, was
destroyed when the outer 200 ft of the Lake Worth Pier was destroyed by the high
waves associated with this storm.

(4) Gages at Duck, North Carolina, and Boston, Massachusetts, were also
affected by the storm but have now been repaired and returned to service.

In addition to the problems noted above, the tide gage at Portland Harbor, Maine, is
programmed to call forecasters at WFSO Portland when the water level reaches 11.0
ft above MLLW. At 4 am, EST, October 30, the gage called and reported such a
reading. The forecasters felt the reported 11.1 ft above MLLW was excessive since
the winds along the Maine and New Hampshire coasts were blowing from the
northeast, parallel to most of the coastline. Experience had shown that most coastal
flooding on this portion of the coast occurred with strong southeast onshore winds.
Finally, this interpretation of the data seemed to be supported by the'MRPECS
statistical storm surge prediction of only 1.7 ft above normal tide.

Forecasters also mentioned that a couple of days earlier, the gage had malfunctioned.
This undermined their confidence in the readings since there was some question
whether or not the gage had been repaired by NOS maintenance technicians. In the
absence of other interrogatable tide gages in that area, with no other method to verify
the reading, and without the Gulf of Maine buoy (44005) to monitor existing sea
conditions, the forecasters in Portland were reluctant to rely solely on these data.
They filed an A-23 Equipment Outage Form on the NOS tide gage. The station
electronics technician visited the gage at 9 am, EST, and confirmed that it was
operating correctly and that the 11.1 ft value was undoubtedly accurate.

Upon learning this, a coastal flood warning was issued at 10 am, EST, 4 hours before
the onset of significant coastal flooding along the Maine and New Hampshire coasts.
Forecasters felt that had they known that the gage was reading correctly, they would
have probably issued a coastal flood watch or, perhaps, a warning at 4 am, EST.

The NOS is presently modernizing its network of water level gages throughout the
United States. At many locations, NGWLMS instruments are installed but are not yet
in an operational mode. This new system is designed to make use of a GOES link to
transmit routine data to field offices. This system, as currently envisioned, will transmit
data every 3 hours via GOES satellite. Following quality checks by NOS, this data will
be released to the NWS field offices via AFOS.

Much concern was raised by NWS local officials throughout the survey area regarding
the reliability and access to real-time water level information on an as-needed basis.
For the long term, concern was raised by the local officials throughout the affected
area about the availability and reliability of the NGWLMS data. For non-storm periods,
the three-hourly data dump will likely be satisfactory. But, in the event of a storm or
coastal flooding episode, frequent access to real-time water level information is critical.
NOS has installed telephone lines from each system for quality control and
maintenance, and it would appear reasonable for NOS to permit access to NWS
forecasters during coastal flooding episodes for monitoring water levels in real-time.
This issue must be resolved before the NGWLMS network is declared operational and
the existing WLTS network decommissioned.

There was a need expressed by several NWS managers for water level information
from estuarine areas (i.e., sounds and embayments behind barrier islands) to alert
forecasters of seiches and flooding from back bays. During extended periods of
onshore winds, water from back bay areas cannot escape to sea as efficiently as
during light or offshore wind situations. With each subsequent high tide, the departure
from predicted water levels increases. For example, WSO Atlantic City reports that,
after four or five tidal cycles when strong northeast (onshore) winds are involved, back
bay water levels can be as much as 1.5 ft higher than simultaneous oceanfront
readings. Several offices get reports from local officials and/or private citizens on
water level conditions in these areas. However, data from most of these must be
directly read by a human observer. As such, requests for information from the
volunteer observers at these sites are made sparingly to maintain cooperation.

SATELLITE DATA SOURCES AND AVAILABILITY

Satellite data, in the form of images and/or image animation, are utilized by NWS
forecasters centrally at NIVIC and NHC and at the various field sites. These data may
be the single most important source of information available to all marine forecasters.
GOES data are available in visible, infrared, and water vapor formats at both NIVIC
and NWS field offices from NESDIS/Satellite Services Division. In the field, the GOES
image data are available via the Satellite Weather Information System (SWIS) and the
microSWIS (personal computer [PC) based image display/animation system) as
images and/or image animation. In addition, NIVIC forecasters have satellite
information available from the VDUC that is not available to NWS field offices.

OTHER DATA ACCESS AND AVAILABILITY LIMITATIONS

Other than those items noted above, the DST found that the forecasters generally had
access to the available tools.

The DST did become aware of a data access problem that seemed to impact the
operation during the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. According to NMC SMS staff,
the current procedure of having the NOS Ocean Products Branch meteorologist,
located at NMC, provide a list of current synoptic observations to the SMS High Seas
forecaster is too labor-intensive. They suggest that a plot containing wind speed and
direction, combined sea and swell height and direction, visibility, pressure, pressure
tendency, and past or present weather would be all that is needed. They did note,
however, that several ship reports on the NOS list of October 29 showing seas of over
40 ft just east of Georges Bank did indeed help verify forecast conditions. (Single
observations of this type illustrate how important real-time in-situ data are to the
forecaster.)

On a related topic, a lead forecaster in Boston recommended that the MARMON
program now in use throughout the Great Lakes be adapted for use along the East
Coast. This program compares existing forecasts with current observations and alerts
the appropriate forecaster when discrepancies arise.

For this to be effective, however, an adequate observational network needs to be in
place. The current network available is consistently denigrated by. NWS marine
forecasters. The sparsity of actual on-water observation points is a major hinderance
in accurately specifying wave heights and wind speeds existent over the waters
offshore the United States. Visual wave observations, in particular those taken from
land-based observers, are prone to have large errors. This is a major problem and
needs to be addressed.

CHAPTER IV - PREPAREDNESS

Disaster preparedness activities at NWS offices have a dual focus. The first is internal
preparedness dealing with internal station management activities (e.g., drills,
checklists, SDMs, and staff awareness). The other focus is external preparedness,
whereby NWS officials meet with state and local officials to learn their requirements
(as they apply to NWS functions), participate in emergency planning and emergency
drills, and take part in post-storm analyses of emergency actions to identify
refinements and improvements.

INTERNAL PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES

Weather Service forecasters must be ready to respond to all weather-related events in
a timely manner to ensure that adequate warnings are delivered to the public. This is
accomplished by developing and maintaining detailed, readily available, and easily
understood instructions and procedures. Of course, these procedures are useless
unless forecasters are aware of their existence and are able to apply them to
whatever situation might arise. This familiarization can either be gained through actual
practice or through station drills.

The DST found that established SOPs were generally in place at all stations visited.
Samples of the on-station guidance are included in appendix A to this report. The
type and quality of the guidance varied from station to station. It ranged from fully
developed SDM chapters on coastal flooding, with references to historical tide heights
and estimated return periods and procedures for backup access to tide gages, etc., to
a short one pager with a brief checklist and telephone listing.

The success of SOPs lies in whether or not those who must use them can readily find
the information they need to successfully handle the situation at hand. The DST
identified no major instances where on-station guidance was incorrect or lacking in the
most critical areas. Some stations, however, could include more background
information, historical data, and examples. Several minor discrepancies were noted
and are, presumably, being corrected.

Station drills focusing on coastal flooding or high surf events were found to'have been
conducted at Portland, Maine (June and October-November 1991); Boston
Massachusetts (October 1990 and October/November 1991 --in progress a; the time of
the storm); and Norfolk, Virginia (November 1990, June 1991, and November 1991).
No other drills had been documented. However, at other off ices--Atl antic City, for
instance--minor coastal flooding is a common enough occurrence that the local

manager believes that proficiency is maintained in real-time without requiring formal
drills.

EXTERNAL PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES

Preparing state and local officials, the media, and the general public for the eventuality
of coastal flooding (or any other weather-related event) is equally important to
preparing station personnel for these events. It appears to the DST that NWS officials
throughout the area investigated had spent and continue to spend considerable effort
in attempting to do this. The responses from the emergency service community and
the media were generally, although not uniformly, good. The responses from the
public were, in,general, poor.

Perception by emergency managers and the public of the potential danger from a
particular weather-related event seems to be critical in developing public cooperation
and response. Local NWS managers must become actively involved in meeting with
emergency managers to develop a common understanding as to the potential of
various weather events, participate in planning activities, and conduct post mortem
reviews to identify deficiencies and improve the warning system. Although the effort
was there, the message, at least as far as most of the public along the Mid-Atlantic
and New England Coasts is concerned, has not gotten through for this type of coastal
flooding event.

The reality is that each NWS office still has different requirements for meeting this
educational responsibility. In places like Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North
Carolina, the populace, from the state emergency managers to the hotel operators and
wind surfers, is very weather-conscious. The frequency of storms and the potential for
destruction they possess makes this apparent even to the most casual observer.

At the other extreme, problems were found in New Hampshire and New Jersey in
getting local emergency officials and the public to believe in the power of the
approaching storm. These are noted in Chapter VII. In Atlantic City, coastal flood
warnings were largely ignored in spite of the local NWS manager's active involvement
with emergency managers throughout southern New Jersey in educating the public
and developing emergency plans. This, again, was due mainly to a lack of
appreciation for the potential of this event.

In Norfolk, Virginia, the DST met with the WSO Meteorologist in Charge (MIC), the
Director and Deputy Director of Norfolk Emergency Services, and the City of Virginia
Beach Fire Department - Emergency Management Division. In this meeting, all three
emergency managers emphasized that their contact with WSO Norfolk is frequent,
due, in part, to the particular problems of the Hampton Roads area in evacuation
planning. Because tunnels and highways susceptible to flooding are major parts of
evacuation plans for the Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Chesapeake areas (average elevation

above mean sea level of Virginia Beach and Norfolk is around 13 ft), emergency
managers are extremely weather-conscious. All agreed that at least monthly meetings
and weekly phone calls take place to discuss various weather-related matters.

The hurricane threat along the Atlantic coast has prompted emergency managers to
foster active disaster preparedness programs in all coastal areas. Hurricane
preparedness activities and associated drills ensure that necessary weather
information can be passed on to state and local emergency managers in the shortest
amount of time. A comprehensive hurricane simulation drill is planned for early 1992
in FEMA Region Ill. "Hurricane Zelda" is intended to involve all levels of emergency
management as well as FEMA, NWS, United States Coast Guard, and other agencies
to strengthen hurricane plans currently in force. Since coastal flooding can account
for a significant part of the damage caused by a hurricane, these preparedness efforts
have a carryover effect to other coastal flood episodes as well.

The perception among NWS personnel and emergency managers throughout the
survey area was that personal visits and communications are absoluteIV essential in
maintaining the high state of readiness of the warning and preparedness program.
Reduced travel budgets have prevented NWS personnel from conducting as many
disaster awareness tours. If this continues, everyone (NWS and emergency
managers) interviewed indicated that the warning and preparedness efforts invested
up to this time will gradually be lost.

Particularly in the restructured NWS, many coastal areas will be without a direct and
immediate NWS presence. In these cases, it is imperative that the Warning
Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) and the MIC keep actively acquainted with various
emergency management personnel in the new Weather Forecast Office area of
responsibility. This will require a sufficient and reliable travel budget and enough time
to perform this task.

At the DST meeting in Atlantic City, the time-intensiveness of this preparedness task
was made clear. The State of New Jersey uses the "home-rule" approach to
emergency services. Emergency management is run at a municipality level with local
governments having the authority to conduct evacuations and produce their own
emergency plans. This situation can cause problems for NWS personnel in
conducting Warning and Preparedness programs due to the number of agencies
involved in emergency management. Problems arise, as well, in the execution of
emergency management plans. In one case during this storm, a municipality ordered
an evacuation without coordinating with other municipalities as to where the evacuees
were to be sheltered.

In the modernized NWS, the plan currently calls for the Philadelphia office to be
responsible for Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania. This
totals some 60 counties. Even with WCMs dedicated solely to preparedness activities,

they will have a difficult time dealing with all aspects of the warning preparedness in
states where individual municipalities direct their own emergency management
functions with little centralized coordination or oversight.

0aa@

Ok4

Figure 26. The remains of Sandy Beach, Scituate, Massachusetts.
Photo courtesy of Pat Viets.

CHAPTER V - WARNING SERVICES

The meteorological scenario that unfolded over the New England and Mid-Atlantic
states in late October presented some unique and formidable challenges to the NWS
warning and forecast system. While these meteorological details are described
elsewhere in this survey report, several points are worthy of reiteration.

Unlike the typical nor'easter that develops off the North Carolina Outer Banks during
the winter months and moves north and east along the New England coast, this major
ocean storm moved west and then southwest toward the United States coast from its
area of origin south of Nova Scotia. This "back door" approach precluded the normal
precursory environmental clues so familiar to persons who have often experienced
coastal winter storms in the northeast. Such was the case, for example, in Maine
during the height of the coastal flooding on October 30. One resident observed, "It
was a rather typical autumn day in New England unless you were on the coast."

The formation of Hurricane Grace several days earlier and its subsequent absorption
into what was to be an ocean storm of historic proportions was a complicating factor
for forecasters in formulating forecasts and statements.

The interaction between the intense extratropical storm and a near record high
pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes strengthened the wind field over vast
areas of the ocean resulting in a long fetch toward the New England coastline.

Forecasters at NIVIC SMS and in WSFOs with coastal responsibility recognized the
devastating potential for a coastal storm several days in advance of its onslaught.
(See selected state forecast discussions [SFDs] in appendix B.) In addition to NHC
advisories on Hurricane Grace, SMS's high seas forecasts (appendix C) indicated
storm development as early as 22 UTC on October 27 and advertised a dangerous
storm in the high seas forecast issued at 10 UTC, October 28. Subsequently, SMS's
high seas forecasts and WSFOs' coastal and offshore forecasts highlighted the
developing threat to marine interests with gale and storm warnings.

Forecasters at several offices mentioned to the DST the importance of numerical
weather prediction and statistical computer guidance from various atmospheric
models. Boston issued a coastal flood watch at 3 am, EST, October 29, based, in
part, on the Limited-area Fine Mesh (LFM) coastal wind forecast of 46 kt at Nantucket.
According to a Boston forecaster, "it looked like the Blizzard of '78 without the snowl"
Another Boston forecaster said the 3000 ft wind forecasts were superbl He used, as
a rule of thumb, 80 percent of the 3000 ft winds to estimate surface winds.

This forecast guidance, together with forecaster experience in dealing with coastal
storms, resulted in a suite of timely, state of the science warning and forecast
products and services to a host of users, including government, public safety, and
emergency management officials, private sector interests, the media, and the public.
(Appendix C contains copies of selected warning and forecast products issued by
various NWS offices having marine responsibilities.)

Not all computer guidance was helpful, however. Several comments were received
indicating that the output from the MRPECS was consistently too conservative for this
storm scenario. One forecaster in Boston stated that he would have issued more
strongly worded statements, comparing this storm in terms of its destructive potential
with the Blizzard of '78, had it not been for the surge model output.

In defense of the MRPECS, it should be noted that this guidance is statistical in
nature. Most storms in this part of the Atlantic are moving away from the United
States. In all likelihood, few, if any, storms moving toward the coast, like the
Halloween Nor'easter of 1991, were in the database used to derive the original
statistical regression equations. In such situations, the statistical guidance can't be
expected to give good guidance.

Also, at the time of the storm, MRPECS was run using wind and pressure inputs
based on the LFM model. Since then, it has been converted so that it now uses
inputs from the newer NGM model. However, even though this model provides better
offshore wind and pressure predictions, the MRPECS will still be of limited value
during unusual storms such as this one.

A common theme reiterated at coastal offices was the need for more real-time tide
gage and buoy data. As discussed in Chapter III, members of the staff at WSFO
Portland lost confidence in the accuracy of a tide gage reading, and the absence of
nearby gages for comparative purposes may have caused the delay in the issuance of
a coastal flood watch or coastal flood warning.

WSFO Portland did issue a special weather statement at 4:30 am, EST, on October
30, highlighting heavy surf and beach erosion. However, the forecasters are
convinced that the loss of data from the Gulf of Maine buoy that had been torn from
its moorings during Hurricane Bob inhibited their ability to gauge the arrival time and
magnitude of heavy surf along the coast.

WSFOs and WSOs placed emphasis on different hazardous aspects of the storm,
depending upon the orientation of the storm's circulation relative to exposed northeast-
and east-facing coastal margins. For example, heavy surf advisories were issued
from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast to Long
Island and Cape Cod highlighting the dangers of high surf and the destructive effect of
moderate to severe beach erosion. In the early stages of this event, these advisories

emphasized the impact of heavy swells radiating from Hurricane Grace while it was
approximately 300 miles east of the North Carolina coast. Later, the focus shifted to
the effects of the rapidly intensifying extratropical storm as Hurricane Grace fell apart
and its energy absorbed into the larger circulation.

At the same time, WSFO Boston issued high wind warnings for eastern
Massachusetts, including Cape Cod, which bore the brunt of the storm due to its
closer proximity to the center. Winds gusted near or above hurricane force for several
hours during the afternoon and evening of October 30.

In addition to marine warnings (gale and storm), coastal flood warnings stretched
along the entire northeast coastline highlighting the severe flooding associatqd with
storm surges 3 to 5 ft above normal. As can be seen by a review of selected
issuances found in appendix C, WSFOs and WSOs provided excellent, site-specific
advice for affected areas, many times incorporating information provided by
emergency management, law enforcement, and government officials.

While coastal flood watches did not precede coastal flood warnings in every case,
there is good evidence of intensive coordination within the NWS field structure as
offices braced to handle this critical weather event. Perhaps as importantly, a
recurring theme from the DST's interviews on the scene was the appreciation
expressed by emergency managers and other groups external to the NWS for the
early and frequent contact with NWS officials and field personnel as the storm
approached.

Several NWS; statements emphasized the hazardous nature of the high waves
attendant to this storm, but the mention of heavy surf may have had the reverse effect
on a segment of the population. Many sightseers were drawn into beach areas
putting themselves at risk and inhibiting the actions of local officials. One person in
Massachusetts lost his life apparently while surfing.

CHAPTER VI - COORDINATION AND DISSEMINATION

The flow of information from the NWS offices was timely, strongly and clearly worded,
and accurate. Coordination between NWS and emergency services personnel was in
some cases initiated over 72 hours before the storm reached its peak. For example,
NWS Eastern Region Headquarters began a close liaison with FEMA Regions 1, 11, 111,
and IV beginning on October 28. In many instances, however, this flow required a
great deal of effort on the part of one or more persons, usually the local NWS office
manager. Although NWWS, NWR, and NAWAS were used, telephone contact
between local offices and local emergency managers was extensive.

WSFO PORTLAND, MAINE

Two NWS off ices in WSFO Portland's area of responsibility were involved with the
storm. These include WSFO Portland itself and WSO Concord, New Hampshire. The
MIC of the WSFO maintained almost continuous telephone contact with emergency
managers from that state and from New Hampshire throughout the period. Also, as
part of this communication effort, the staff at the WSFO issued a special one-time
product, a hazardous weather outlook, aimed at the emergency managers and
containing alerting information.

The WSFO is equipped with a facsimile machine used to transmit hard copies of
warnings and statements. Similar systems were also used at other offices visited by
the DST. The labor intensiveness required of such contacts can be overwhelming. If
this process is to be continued, the NWS should try to automate it where possible.

In general, the system in place throughout this area requires that the state emergency
managers receive warnings and watches and pass them down to their county
managers. These officials, in turn, forward the alerts to local managers. Both Maine
and New Hampshire emergency managers were contacted by the DST and noted that
they have access to the NWWS. (in Maine, this access is through the State Police
headquarters. The Maine Emergency Management Agency is attempting to get its
own NWWS drop.) Further, the NAWAS already in place at the WSFO, at the WSO,
and at various other spots around both states ensured that the state managers were
notified. Additionally, both states noted that they are introducing NWR to their local
and county emergency managers to diminish the telephone traffic and quicken the
local alerting time.

As a backup, the Portland WSFO disseminates messages to the Associated Press via
the Family of Services. This allows emergency managers to receive information

through the various media outlets across both states should those managers not have
immediate access to their NWWS.

WSFO Portland has responsibility. for a special location: the home of President
George Bush in Kennebunkport, Maine. A Secret Service unit is at that location but
was not directly notified by the WSFO. SOPs, as noted in the SDM, did not mandate
this. However, the SOPs and SDM have been changed to ensure that this is done
whenever a watch or warning affecting the area is issued.

WSFO BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS

WSFO Boston; WSO Providence, Rhode Island; WSO Hartford, Connecticut; WSMO
Chatham, Massachusetts; and WSO Bridgeport, Connecticut; all took part in
overseeing the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. Information was disseminated from
WSFO Boston directly to the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency over
NAWAS and the NWWS which, in turn, funneled it through the area directors to the
local emergency managers in the jurisdictions involved. The staff at Boston contacted
appropriate emergency managers and began issuing media alerts and PNSs on
October 27, notifying them of the impending conditions.
In thIs area, a close relationship between personnel at WSFO Boston and the
Massachusetts emergency managers resulted in a timely and accurate dissemination
of weather material. Those managers interviewed by the DST said that the Boston
office did a superb job in providing advanced warning and in keeping them up to date
during the run of the storm.

A similar story can be told in Rhode Island and Connecticut. Even though the
damage and impact were less severe, WSO managers kept in close contact with their
respective state and local emergency officials. WSO Providence, Rhode Island,
supplied information to state officials from 07 UTC, October 30, until the storm ended
through its connection with the Rhode Island Law Enforcement Telecommunications
System. Emergency managers also were serviced by NWWS and by hourly
telephone contacts with the WSO.

Connecticut emergency service managers had access to all products issued by the
area NWS offices -through NWWS. They also maintained telephone contact with WSO
Bridge'port-for the storm's duration.

WSFO NEW YORK, NEW YORK

The only involved office in this area was the WSFO itself. The state of New York is
extremely well organized as far as the emergency services program is concerned.
Information flows to the state headquarters through NAWAS or the NWWS and is

disseminated downward through the NYSPIN communication's circuitry. The local
officials had ample lead time to implement preparedness actions. I

One problem was noted in New York. NYSPIN was established to automatically
distribute emergency products throughout the state. However, coastal flood messages
were not included in this system. This required the New York WSFO to reissue
products with a special weather statement communication's header. NYSPIN has
been changed to rectify this problem.

WSFO PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA

WSO Atlantic City, New Jersey, bore the brunt of the weather in this WSFO's area of
responsibility. In New Jersey, the DST met with 18 people, including emergency
managers from the state, county, and local governments and local media personnel.
The flow of information in New Jersey is more diffuse than in the other states
surveyed in that the NWS contacts local officials directly without going through a state
organization. These contacts are usually handled over the telephone.

Because of the structure of the emergency service organization in New Jersey, local
contacts at the county level are a must. The NWWS does not seem to be a viable
alternative in this state. A suggestion was made that an automatic facsimile machine
(see discussion noted in the Portland, Maine, area above) be installed at WSO Atlantic
City. This would allow the station to automatically call and forward to the concerned
county and local officials hard copies of necessary information at the touch of a
button.

WSFO WASHINGTON, DC

WSOs in Baltimore, Maryland, and Wilmington, Delaware, were active during this
storm. However, WSO Norfolk, Virginia, was the office in the WSFO Washington area
most affected by the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991, although the WSFO did issue
several warnings, forecasts, and statements and retained overall responsibility for the
coast. Also, the WSFO used NAWAS frequently to brief both state and local
emergency managers and to pass coastal information on to the Virginia State
Emergency Operations Center.

The Norfolk MIC and local area emergency managers talked often--four or five times a
day--over the telephone through the duration of the storm. This is a normal procedure
during such events. The MIC notified officials early in the week of the developing
system and of its potential and followed up with the telephone and with facsimiles.
Coordination, although labor, intensive, was very satisfactory.

WSFO RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA

In North Carolina, WSFO Raleigh staff maintained close telephone contact with the
State Division of Emergency Management. At the local level, WSO Cape Hatteras,
the office responsible for the area impacted, maintained close telephone,contact with
county and local emergency managers.

These local managers also relied heavily on NWR broadcasts and used this forum for
disseminating their own emergency messages to the general public (example in
appendix C). This was the only office visited by the DST at which this was done. The'
extreme reliance placed on the NWR system in this weather-sensitive area was
striking.

Conversations with officials from the North Carolina Division of Emergency
Management (Area A), from the Dare County Emergency Management Office, and
with the Dare County Sheriff all indicated that NWR is utilized extensively. It is used
to disseminate timely weather information and to advise the public of weather-related
road closures, etc. Local radio stations are not as likely to remain on the air during
poor weather as is the Hatteras NWR station. Discussions with individuals and local
officials substantiated the emergency managers' claims that NWR enjoys a broad
listener base and, in fact, becomes THE source of weather and weather-related
emergency information for the citizens of Dare County and the Outer Banks. The
local emergency officials relied on and acted on the information provided by the NWS.
Those managers debriefed by the DST were very satisfied with the service provided
by both offices. They also expressed concern about closing the Hatteras office when
the NWS modernizes.

Emergency managers and NWS officials in all locations stressed the value of reliable
communications links between NWS offices and emergency managers, primarily as a
real-time tool for sharing information and disseminating warnings. In particular, location
of facsimile machines at NWS offices was viewed as very desirable for rapidly sending
warnings and statements to emergency managers.

Few local emergency management officials rely on NWWS for receiving timely
warnings. Instead, they rely on private sector weather companies, NWR, The
Weather Channel, or the local media for their information. Most believe that the local
NWS office sending the word out in a personal manner (albeit via facsimile) makes the
warning more apt to be received and acted upon in a timely manner. The difficulty
with facsimile transmissions is that, if there is a long list of addressees, the product
being disseminated becomes less and less timely to addressees at the end of the list
and the workload is very labor intensive.

The emergency managers in Norfolk, Virginia, suggested that the availability of a rapid
conference calling capability would be useful for alerting all emergency managers

involved in the large Hampton Roads area as to the onset of hazardous weather
conditions.

At WSO Cape Hatteras, where a facsimile machine is currently in place (compliments
of local emergency management agencies), a facsimile card for an existing PC was
suggested. This machine, used as the station AFOS backup terminal, could be
dedicated to sending NWS products to local officials. This would free the existing
facsimile machine for receiving reports from these same agencies. Some difficulties
arose during the Halloween storm when local phone switches were not properly
aligned. This resulted in non-receipt ofsome reports from local emergency managers.

Finally, NAWAS was successfully utilized to deliver coastal flood warnings to those
agencies tied in to the system. However, it was noted that, in almost all cases, the
system does not extend to the local emergency management level. To reach these
people, other methods (telephone, NWR, facsimile, etc.) had to be used.

lost

Figure 27. A house moved off Its foundation In Scituate, Massachusetts.
Photo courtesy of Pat Viets.

CHAPTER V11 -- USER RESPONSE

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RESPONSE

The overall response by most members of the emergency management community
was outstanding. Warnings and watches issued by the NWS were used as a basis to
alert local communities about the storm. Most officials with whom the DST talked said
they had ample warning. They all noted that they communicate regularly with NWS
meteorologists and have come to respect the judgment of the forecasters.

The MIC at WSFO Boston reported that, from an NWS perspective, the emergency
management response in southern New England, the hardest hit area, was effective.
Numerous preparations were made by state and local officials hours before the crucial
Wednesday afternoon high tides. For example, Massachusetts personnel started to
implement that state's emergency action plan at 9 am, EST, Wednesday morning,
coastal evacuations were recommended before the brunt of the storm struck, and
people and equipment needed for immediate recovery efforts were, in many areas,
pre-positiohed by noon. The city of Chatham made plans Wednesday morning to
dismiss school early.

State emergency managers in New Hampshire realized that a warning for a high tide
5 ft above normal would be significant, and they passed the word to their county
managers by radio or telephone. However, they told the DST that it was difficult trying
to convince officials in the coastal communities of the tide's significance.

Some local officials were very responsive in acting on the warnings received. In the
town of Scituate, Massachusetts, for example, the emergency services director
received word of the storm and drove to the coastal areas to pass the word. (See
figures 26 and 27 for damage in that community.) In general, the emergency
managers in Massachusetts related weather information to the Blizzard of '78, a storm
considered to be a baseline for nor'easters in this part of the country, and realized the
potential power the storm packed.

The responses uncovered by the DST in New Jersey, however, were not so positive.
The probability of a coastal flooding episode was broadcast over NWR and via NWWS
starting on Monday, October 28. By October 31, when the worst flooding occurred
(well preceded by a coastal flood warning issued by the WSO), little action was found
to have been taken. The local officials (together with the media and the public),
although notified, did not seem to grasp the significance of the event even though
terms like "historic levels" included in the warnings and statements made it clear that a

significant flooding event was imminent. The general manager of the radio station that
has Emergency Broadcast System responsibility in the local area told the DST that he
read the warning as it scrolled by on The Weather Channel but did not grasp the
significance of the words. The wind and rain that normally heightens the public's
awareness of coastal storms was absent.

Many of the local officials and media representatives in attendance at a meeting called
for the DST in Atlantic City agreed that they saw the warnings and that the message
they contained was clear. Still they did not react. There were several reasons given
for this apparent unconcern. However, the underlying basis for the lack of action was:
Since the skies were fair and there was no strong wind, what could happen?

MEDIA RESPONSE

Overall response by the media was on target. Radio and television stations and
newspapers along the East Coast carried all of the warnings and watches issued by
the NWS, urged residents of the coastal communities to take shelter, and warned
them against watching the storm. The Weather Channel did its usual fine job on
reporting this system.

The print media, while lacking the immediacy of the electronic media, published
numerous articles all along the affected areas to increase public awareness of storms.
Again, the DST received general praise for the flow of information from the NWS. A
representative from the Portland Press-Herald, for example, said that he had no
trouble getting information from the WSFO and, in fact, was planning to write more
weather-related articles to increase public awareness of weather hazards.

The media all expressed satisfaction in receiving timely and accurate forecasts. A
reporter from Channel 8 in Portland, Maine, advised the. DST that he needs to
establish a link with the WSFO and intends to do so. Channel 8 downlinks its
information via satellite from WSI Corporation.

One possible problem was mentioned to the DST in this area. Although several of the
media listened to the NWR, the consensus was that the warnings on NWR in that
area were not updated frequently enough.

PUBLIC RESPONSE

Overall, the public response fell short of the response by emergency managers and
the media. The storm was a unique event and was so advertised. However, it was
generally not accompanied by what the public perceives as significant weather. Also,
like all non-hurricane storms, it was not named.

These two factors seem to have played a significant role in the public's apparent lack
of concern about the potential power of the storm. Also, NWS forecasters and
emergency managers speculated that the general belief among the populace that
October is not the time of year that a destructive nor'easter is likely to occur added to
this apathy. Whatever the reason, the public generally disregarded the warnings.

In researching the lack of response by the public, the DST learned from various
sources that the public tends not to understand the significance of coastal flood
watches and warnings. Coastal residents without previous first-hand experience had
no frame of reference. Faced with sunny skies and the lack of significant weather,
many residents did not perceive the potential threat.

In the Portland, Maine, area coastal residents said they realized that the storm could
potentially be dangerous, but they underestimated its power. Emergency managers
said they realized the potential power of the storm but had difficulty convincing coastal
communities of the storm's potential power.

In Massachusetts, although a state of emergency was declared, no mandatory orders
were given to evacuate. This contrasts with Hurricane Bob when at least two of these
orders were issued.

Information about Bob was provided by the NHC. In the case of the Halloween
Nor'easter of 1991, local offices handled dissemination. In some cases, the lack of
hurricane status and the lack of a central information point were related to the public's
misconception about the storm's potential impact. This was true even though the
statements issued by NWS offices were clearly worded and stressed the extreme
dangers inherent with the storm.

The response of some individuals along the Maine coast can best summarize a typical
reaction of many other coastal residents. They knew they were in trouble when the
water failed to recede after the morning high tide on October 30. Waves were
crashing over the seawall at least 2 hours before the next high tide which was set for
4:22 pm, EST, that day. Instead of moving, however, they watched the storm and
even videotaped much of it. They moved out of the storm's way only when it became
absolutely necessary.

In the Boston area and along southern Long Island, the wave battering was the key to
the destruction of property. The coastal residents realized that low tide was
considerably higher than normal but did little to protect their property.

The weather awareness of the populace in the Outer Banks area of North Carolina
and the reliance they have on the NWR for their emergency weather information was
a notable exception to this trend. (Figures 28 and 29 show examples of the result of

the storm in this area.) In general, the DST discovered that the use of this medium
outside of North Carolina was much less than they expected.

Finally, officials from FEMA also told the team that, in general, people do not respect
and understand the power of the ocean. Additionally, they reported that some of the
television meteorologists were tending to overreact. This resulted in skepticism and
even increased curiosity by the residents. In several areas along the coast, there was
considerable traffic by sightseers into threatened areas. Such traffic could have
seriously hampered preparedness efforts and needlessly jeopardized lives. The
WSFO Boston MIC reported that in Cohasset, people who drove by the beach to view
the storm had to be rescued.

F-9

- - - - ------ - - - - - -
wvnjjjjM'VpF40-

Figure 28. Sand buried motel In Buxton, North Carolina. Photo courtesy of Mark Koehn.

V77

Figure 29. Sand buried beach house In Buxton, North Carolina.
Photo courtesy of Mark Koehn.

APPENDIX A - SELECTED OFFICE COASTAL FLOOD INSTRUCTIONS

WSFO BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS:

WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING ACTION SHEET DATE:

circle type: WINTER STORM WATCH WINTER STORM WARNING
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
HIGH WIND WARNING BLIZZARD WARNING

COORDINATION: Before Issuing a watch or warning, coordinate with
the appropriate WSO's and WSFO's by phone or by an
early SFD.

Note: East Coast Coordination on Hurricane Hotline may be
necessary (see Instructions in WINTER STORM MANUAL)

Read watch/wamIng information on NWR _ and NAWAS
Disseminate watch/warning via Special Weather Statement.

If strong winds and/or high tides may cause coastal flooding,
beach erosion, etc., put message on the Coast Guard
Circuit _ (use ACOMMS:XMIT 0) and
notify Corp of Engineers with special reference to Stamford, CT.
Corp of Engineers _ FTS 839-7630 (or 7629)
or #87 (FTS 81-617-647-8630)
(see Coastal Flood SDM for home numbers).

Phone call flat:
MEMA Ops 8a-Sp #95 (8-1-508-820-2016)*; 5PM-8am call
#96 (81-508-820-2000)* (switch board) ask that receipt
of this message be confirmed by MEMA Comms.
Director's number 81-508-820-2010 (2011 for secretary).
Additional number 1-800-982-6846.

MA Fiscal crises forces auto transfer of telcon to answering
svc between midnight-7am, 7 days/Week and also 4pm-mfdnlght
settsun. The answering svc will ask you If this Is an
emergency. Say YES and ask them to notify the person on call to
give us a call to relay pertinent Info. When MEMA calls you, you
may wish to coordinate further calls the remainder of the shfft@

-city of Boston, Highway Dept. - 482-5300 ext. 169.

Red Cross - #94 (1-800-462-2705 then dial 911. Upon
answer: day shift ask for Duty Officer; 430 pm-830am
give Info to a recording).
-Nantucket Police (when Included in watch/warning area)
81-508-228-1212.

FEMA - #93 (81-233-9640) (if calling after hours, on
weekends, or holidays, ask the answering servce to
have Duty Officer call us).

1) Review the staffing situation.
2) Special Weather Statements should be issued every three hours
during the on-going storms. Include the time of the next
Issuance ... and meet the deadline.
3) Put snowfall reports for Massachusetts Into OPUBOS.
4) For ocean storms ... Initiate hourly buoy plots.
5) File Non-Routine Board.

A-1

Coastal Watws Forecast Decision TrOg
WINDS > LIS KTFST@ COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
(SEAS > 5 FT) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (CWF) ... NO HEADLINE
NO ISSUE MAW IF WINDS/SEAS
YES DECREASE BY A CATEGORY

NO NO ISSUE MARINE
WINDS > 34 FT7S- - - - LASTING > 2 - - - - - - - WEATHER
STATEMENT (MWS)

YES SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
YES HEADLINE IN CWF, ISSUE
L- - - - - - - - - - - - - MARINEADVISORY (MAW)

NO LASTING > 2 HR- NO ISSUE SPECIAL MARINE
ICAL STORM - - - - - - - - - - WARNING (SNPA
P I I
YES YES

NO QALE WARNING HEADLINE
INDS > 40 KTS IN CWF. ISSUE MARINE
WINDS 1>04 I - I - I. . . . WARNING (MAW)
I YES
I- - - - - - - - - - - - -
NO STORM WARNING HEADUNE
IN CWF. ISSUE MARINE
YES WARNING (MAW)
L LEAD TIME > 24 HRS NO
- - - - - - TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IN CWF

YES
E> - - - - - - - - - - - - TROPICAL STO - - -
LEAD TIM WATCH IN C
24 HRS
I NO
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HURRICANE WARNING
IN CWF

YES

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HURRICANEWATCH
IN CWF

ISSUE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENTS (HLS) AS
NEEDED

COASTAL FLOODING DECISION TREE
YES
MINOR F - - - - - I DURING A WIRTERWrMM]- ISSUIEWINTERWEATHER
YES STATEMENT (SPS)
I NO
NO ISSUE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (MWS)
LEADTIME YES . . . . ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING (CFM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ISSUE OASTAL FLOOD WATCH (CFA)
NO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS
(CFS) AS NEEDED

A-2

WSFO PORTLAND, MAINE:

JULY 1, 1986 SELECTING JULIAN DATE TERMINAL WILL DOUBLE PRINT.
THIS IS NORMAL).
TO: ALL 12. COMPUTER WILL ASK FOR DUMP TIME. SELECT TIME IN EST
FOR WHICH PRINTOUT IS TO BEGIN AND ENTER. (IN
FROM: FRED SELECTING TIME TERMINAL WILL DOUBLE PRINT. THIS IS
NORMAL).
SUBJ: TIDE READINGS FROM PORTLAND HARBOR 13. READINGS WILL BE GIVEN AT 15 MINUTE INTERVALS FROM
DUMP DATE AND TIME TO PRESENT. (TIDE AND BATTERY
THE WAY THE TIDE READINGS ARE OBTAINED FOR PORTLAND READINGS).
HARBOR HAS BEEN CHANGED. THE READINGS ARE MADE BY 14. AFTER PRINTOUT HAS FINISHED, COMPUTER WILL ASK FOR
COMPUTER AND THE READINGS MUST BE OBTAINED FROM THE ANOTHER DUMP DATE. MAKE NO ENTRIES FOR A LEAST ONE
COMPUTER. THE PROCEDURE IS NOT SIMPLE LIKE IT USED TO 81; MINUTE. THIS ALLOWS COMPUTER TO DISCONNECT.
AS THERE IS NO DIRECT READOUT IN THIS OFFICE. 15. ONCE DISCONNECT OCCURS, STRIKE -BREAK- KEY.
16. TYPE "S" AND ENTER.
TIDE READINGS ARE STILL AVAILABLE. THEY ARE JUST NOT 17. TYPE "SETCOM A-OFF" AND ENTER.
AS EASY TO OBTAIN. THIS CHANGE IS PART OF A NATIONAL 18. TYPE "S" AND ENTER.
CHANGE TAKING PLACE AS A RESULT OF HURRICANE GLORIA. 19. TYPE 'DO MODEM300" AND ENTER.
MANY TIDE GAGE READINGS (INCLUDING OURS) WERE UNAVAILABLE 20. TYPE "T"AND ENTER.
AT THE TIME THEY WERE NEEDED MOST BECAUSE OF POWER
FAILURES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL PROVIDE A READING AS LONG >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
AS A TELEPHONE LINE IS AVAILABLE.
V. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHESIWARNINGS/STATEMENTS
THE TIDE READINGS CAN BE OBTAINED BY ONE OF TWO WSOM C-43
METHODS. CALL THE COMPUTER AND GET A VOICE READING. OR
CALL THE COMPUTER ON THE TRS-80 AND GET A PRINTOUT OF Coastal Flooding Is defined as being from 2 causes, storm surge and heavy
READINGS AT 15 MINUTE INTERVALS. surf. It a MWS Is Issued for surf conditions, it should headline "HEAVY
SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT".
THE COMPUTER IS ALARMED TO CALL US ON 780-3552
WHENEVER THE 11DE GOES ABOVE 11 FEET. THE CALL WILL BE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS and HEAVY SURF
COMPUTER GENERATED VOICE THAT SOUNDS A LITTLE UNUSUAL. ADVISORIES shall be headlined In appropriate coastal zones, local, and
IF YOU A FUNNY SOUNDING CALL ON THE FITS LINE, IT MAY BE THE marine forecasts.
TIDE GAGE CALLING TO ALERT US OF A TIDE READING ABOVE 11
FEET. If coastal flooding Is expected due to a winter storm on which we are issuing
WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPS), we can Include any coastal flood
TO FIND OUT WHAT THE COMPUTER GENERATED VOICE watch/warning or heavy surf advisory Information In the WINTER WEATHER
SOUNDS LIKE, CALL FOR A READING. THE TELEPHONE NUMBER IS STATEMENT. At other times we will have to teat them as a separate event.
9-871-7215. YOU WILL GET THE IDENTIFIER (ID001). THE TIDE
READING, A READING OF BATTERY VOLTAGE, AND A REPEAT OF THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH..AFOS heading..CFAPWM
IDENTIFIER. THIS IS THE SAME PROCEDURE FOR OBTAINING A A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH should be Issued for possible coastal flooding
READING. within the next 12 to 36 hours.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> COASTAL FLOOD WARNING..AFOS headIng..CFWPWM
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING shall be Issued for coastal flooding
SUBJ: TIDE READINGS FROM PORTLAND HARBOR expected within the next 12 hours.

TO OBTAIN A READING USING THE TRS-80 IS A LITTLE MORE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT..AFOS he'ading..CFSPWM
INVOLVED. IT REQUIRES A NUMBER OF COMMANDS TO RESET THE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT Is used to revise, extend, cancel, or
TRS-80 TO THE PROPER PARITY AND THEN RETURN IT FOR HYDRO update COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS.
USE ONCE YOU ARE FINISHED. THE PROPER COMMANDS ARE:
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (MWS) Is used In lieu of the above
1 . STRIKE "BREAK" KEY. products during minor coastal flooding episodes or when the severity and
2. TYPE "S" AND ENTER. extent of coastal flooding are uncertain.
3. TYPE "SETCOM A=OFF" AND ENTER.
4. TYPE "S" AND ENTER. When referring to a forecast or occurence of tidal heights above normal in
5. TYPE -SETCOM A=)" AND ENTER. any statement, watch,or warning concerning coastal flooding, it shall be
6. TYPE "T" AND ENTER. referenced to the heights above mean low water MLW at Portland as well.
7. TYPE "ATDT9,8717215"AND ENTER. (Use NOS tide tables for values). The statement, "To convert mean low
8. AFTER CONNECTION STRIKE "CONTROL S". water MLW to mean sea level MSL subtract 4.6 feet from the MLW value."
9. COMPUTER WILL PRINT THREE LINES OF DATA. shall be Included. (from ERH Memo May 6, 1988).
1ST LINE CONTAINS IS CODE, JULIAN DATE, AND TIME IN EST
2ND LINE (BEGINS WITH 01) CONTAINS TIDE READINGS EXAMPLE: The combination of very strong onshore winds and an
3RD LINE (BEGINS WITH 02) CONTAINS BATTERY VOLTAGE astronomical high tide early in the afternoon will produce tides 2 to 3 feet
READINGS above normal at the time of high tide. In Portland, the tide will reach 12.5 to
10. AFTER READINGS ARE COMPLETE, STRIKE -CONTROL S" TO 13.5 feet above moan low water MLW between 1230 PM and 130 PM. To
OBTAIN PRINTOUT OF OLD DATA. convert mean low water MLW to mean sea level MSL subtract 4.6 feet from
11. COMPUTER WILL ASK FOR DUMP DATE. SELECT JULIAN DATE the MLW value.
FOR WHICH PRINTOUT IS TO BEGIN AND ENTER. (IN
Do not use references to MLW, MSL or exact tidal times In the CWFPWM.

A-3

PROBABILITY OF MAXIMUM ANNUAL STORM SURGE FOR PORTLAND, FREQUENCY (RETURN PERIODS)
MAINE (based on data 1914-1959) from Fig 5.2 Std Project
Northeaster, May, 1963. (feet) 3.0 feet or higher ... once every 4.5 years
last time ... February 7, 1978
SURGE SURGE
1.2 every 1.0 year 2.0 every 1.3 yrs 3.5 feet or higher-once every 10 years
2.2 every 1.5 yrs 2.5 every 2.2 yrs last time ... February 7, 1978
2.4 every 2 yrs 3.0 every 4.5 yrs
2.7 every 3 yrs 3.5 every 10 yrs 4.0 feet or higher ... once every 23 years
3.2 every 5 yrs 4.0 every 23 yrs last time ... March 3, 1947
3.5 every 10 yrs 4.5 every 50 yrs
4.2 every 25 yrs 5.0 every 125. yrs FREQUENCY BY MONTH (all but one from winter storms)
4.5 every so yrs 5.5 every 275 yrs
4.8 every 100 yrs OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. AUG.
1 3 3 1 2 3 1

PROBABILITY OF EXTREME HIGH TIDE HEIGHTS AT PORTLAND,
MAINE (based on data 1914-1959) from Fig 5.4 Std Project TOP TEN TIDES AT PORTLAND (reference height MLLW)
Northeaster, May, 1963. Reference to MLW In feet with
respect to tidal datum epoch (1924-1942). 1) 14.17 feet February 07, 1976
2) 13.98 feet January 09, 1978
MAXIMUM ANNUAL SURGE *ALL SURGES COMBINED 3) 13.40 feet December 04, 1990
COMBINED WITH ASTRONOMICAL WITH ALL' ASTRONOMICAL 4) 13.31 feet March, 16, 1976
HIGH TIDE ASSUMING TIDE, NOT SIMULTANEOUS 5) 13.29 feet November 30, 1944
SIMULTANEOUS OCCURENCE 5) 13.29 feet November 20, 1945
6) 13.18 feet January 02, 1987
HEIGHT 6) 13.18 feet October 30, 1991
10.0 ...... every 1. 1 yrs ...... every 1 yr 7) 13.18 feet April 07, 1958
10.5 ...... every 1.3 yrs ...... every 1 yr 7) 13.09 feet December 29, 1959
11.0 ...... every 1.7 yrs ...... every 1 yr 7) 13.09 feet February 19, 1972
11.5 ...... every 2.3 yrs ...... every 1 yr 8) 13.07 feet January 28, 1979
12.0 ...... every 3.8 yrs ...... every 2 yr 9) 12.80 feet December 03, 1986
12.5 ...... every 6 yrs ...... every 8 yrs 10) 12.79 feet April 28,1940
13.0 ...... every 13 yrs every 35 yrs 10) 12.79 feet January 20, 1961
13.5 ...... every 24 hrs ...... every 100 yrs
14.0 ...... every 55 yrs ...... every 300 yrs >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
14.5 ...... every 130 yrs ...... every 750 yrs
14.7 ...... ..... every 1000 yrs FREQUENCY (return periods)
15.0 ...... every 370 yrs
15.4 ...... every 1000 yrs 13.0 feet..:once every 10 years
last time ... October 30, 1991
*The probability of these heights occuring through 12.0 ft. 13.5 feet ... once every 50 years
Is higher because these heights are a probability distribution lost time...February 7, 1978
of the quantity total tide at time of maximum annual surge and not the
quantity maximum annual total tide. These quantities are the same for 14.0 feet ... once every 170 years
high tide heights but not for low tide heights. (p. 53, Std
Prjct NEer).
OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. AUG.
>>>>>>;.>>>>>>>>>>>.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 1 2 3 4 2 1 2

TOP TEN STORM SURGES SINCE 1914 AT PORTLAND, MAINE >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

1) 4.3 feet March 3, 1947 SPRING TIDE DATA
2) 4.1 feet March 1, 1914
3) 3.9 feet Dec. 14, 1917 Normal 10.4 feet above MLLW
4) 3.6 feet Dec. 19, 1972 Maximum 11.7 feet above MLLW
5) 3.5 feet Nov. 26, 1950
5) 3.5 feet Feb. 07, 1978
5) 3.5 feet Oct. 30, 1991
6) 3.3 feet Nov. 30, 1945
6) 3.3 feet Aug. 31, 1954
(Hurricane Carol)
7) 3.2 feet Dec. 02,1942
8) 3.1 feet Mar. 16,1956
9) 3.0 feet Jan. 15, 1940
9) 3.0 feet Feb. 07, 1951
10) 2.9 feet Nov. 13, 1925

A-4

WSFO NEW YORK, NEW YORK:

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CHECKLIST 2. WSFO Boston FTS 835-4662J63

DATE 3. WSO Newark DILS 5353

Before Issuing a Coastal Flood Watch (CFA), coordinate with the following: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@l.>>>>>

Note: Calls to WSFOs might be unnecessary If Watch Is discussed NOTIFICATION PHASE
during the EAST COAST COORDINATION CALL. Log time of
coordination. After a decision has been reached to Issue a Warning, and the Warning has
been composed and transmitted on AFOS, notify the following:
1. WSFO Boston FTS 835-4661/2/3
4. New Jersey SEMO day 609-822-2000 ext 2859
2. WSFO Philadelphia FTS 597-3696/0845 night 609-822-2000
Note: at night, ask that the emergency management duty officer call back
3. WSO Newark 201-DLS-5353 Immediately
201-624-8098
5. Suffolk Go. EMO day 516-924-4400
4. Issue a Coastal Flood Watch statement (CFA) to Initiate the Coastal night 516-286-5354
Flood Watch. Make sure the statement contains the UNIVERSAL GENERIC
CODE LINE In the header. 6. Nassau Go. EMO day 516-535-7521/6f7
(Police comm.) night 516-535-7606
5. Broadcast the CFA on NWFI. (May be combined with the weather map
discussion.) DO NOT tone alert. 7. Westchester Co. day 914-285-3026
night 914-741-4400
6. If watch covers northern Now Jersey,
make sure NJ SEMO received it (NJ NAWAS) Note: at night, ask county police to page emergency management personnel
and that It is broadcast on NAWAS.
8. New York City EMO day 374-5580
7*Call the NE Bronx Planning day night 374-5580 -
212-892-1161, night 212-828-0862
9. Rockland Co. EMO day 914-354-8259
8. Advise NY State Warning Point to night 941-354-8111 -
read Watch Bulletin over NAWAS.
Note: If flooding Is NOT expected along the lower Hudson River, do not call.
9. Call the RED CROSS: 212-787-0210
or 212-870-8855 If serious or major coastal 10. NE Bronx Planning day 212-892-1161
flooding Is a potential. night 212-828-1393-

10. Inform MIC 718-268-6518 and DMIC 11. NY State SEMO day 518-457-2200
516-331-7206 when they arrive at the office. night 518-457-2200

12. Advise NY State Warning Point to read
Rev. 2/14/91 Warning Bulletin over NAWAS.
13. Read Warning Bulletin over NJ NAWAS
11. Issue follow-up statements (CFSNYC) every 3-6 hours. 14. Broadcast Warning Bulletin over NWR.
Tone alert only if flooding Is expected
Note: If a Coastal Flood Watch and Winter Storm Watch/Warning are within the next several hours AND a
headlined together, a separate CFS Is not needed. Include the Watch has not been In effect.
CFS Info within the Special Weather Statement. Don't forget the 15. Phone the RED CROSS: 787-1000/0210
UGCsI If serious or major coastal flooding is
expected.
Rev. 2/14/91) 16. Notify MIG 516-543-1317 or
DMIC 201-297-5631
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@,.> 17. Issue frequent follow-up statements (CFSNYC) as needed
Make sure the time of the next statement Is mentioned. Note: If a
CALL AND COORDINATION LIST: Coastal Flood Warning Coastal Flood Warning and Winter Storm Warning are headlined
together, a separate CFS Is not necessary. Information normally
COORDINATION PHASE Included In the CFS is to be included in the SPS's Issued for the Winter
Storm Warning.
Before Issuing a Coastal Flood Warning (CFW),
coordinate with the following: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TIME
INITIALS

1. WSO Atlantic City 609-645-7433
NOTE: do not give out;
this Is a highly
restricted number

A-5

WSO NORFOLK, VIRGINIA:

WSO NORFOLK VA STATION DUTY MANUAL Ill. COAST GUARD
Coast Guard reports are available at the three hourly
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS Intervals ... However ... they can be obtained as often as needed by
Reference WSOM D-51 and associated ROMLS and OMLS conalcting CG Headquarters In Portsmouth or call the station direct. While
tide data Is not part of the station reports some of the stations might be
COASTAL FLOOD PROGRAM able to give estimated heights of tides
Coastal flooding ranges from minor tidal overflow having little effect to major
storm surge Inundations with heavy surf. Although It Is WSFO Washington's >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
responsibility to issue the COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING you
should notify them of the potential for significant flooding. It Is WSO IV. FORECASTING TIDE LEVELS AND AREA CRITICAL TIDE LEVELS
NORFOLK'S responsibility to issue the COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.
1. There Is a forecast program In the AST that will give you an estimate of
1.PRODUCTS the tide levels throughout our warning area based on the Sewells Point
estimated crest. You can use your own subjective forecast crest for
a. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH(AFOS category CFA)- Coastal Flood Watch Sewells Point or use the objective forecast found In AFOS under
should be Issued by WBG for coastal flooding which Is expected In the next WBCMRPECS.
12 to 36 hours. This would be set off at the top of the forecast like any other 9. At AST hit ESC (this will take you out of the program)**
Watch. Is ... Coastal Flood Watch... b. Type B: ... then return
c. Type Basic ... then return -PRINTER MUST BE IN THE B
b. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING(AFOS category CFW- A Coastal Flood d. Type Load"Tides"...then return POSITION AS FORECASTS ARE
Warning Is Issued when flooding Is occurring or Is expected to occur in the e. Type Run PRINTED ON IT.
next 12 to 24 hours. This too Is highlighted before the body of the local I. At this point the program will be sell explanatory. When you are done
forecast. In addition a description of the flooding is given In the body of the to return to the normal ABT system Type System ... return, Type A:
forecast and a forecast of the tide crest for the next one or two high tides at ... return, Type AST ... return. You should then be back to normal.
Sewells Point should be given In the tide section of the forecast. 2. Critical Tide Levels
Minimum Flood Major Flood Tide of Record
c. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT(AFOS category CF� M:CFS). A Norfolk 5.0 6.5 9.7 All Heights MLW
Coastal Flood Statement Is Issued by WSO NORFOLK to update the public Yorktown 4.0 6.5 9.7
on why a Coastal Flood Watch or Warning has been Issued and the Gloucester Pt 5.0 6.0 7.1
.expected coverage and extent of tidal flooding for ALL of eastern Virginia. Urbanna 3.0 5.0 5.7
Normally you would Issue a CFS just after a Watch or Warning were Issued Gwynns Is. 5.5 7.5 8.0
and at least every six hours during a Watch or Warning. There are Muddy Greek 2.0 4.0 5.2
numerous help sheets In the rear of this section that will give tidal (Near Belle Haven)
relationships between Sewells Point and other locations in our area of Tangier Is 2.0 3.0 4.2
responsibility. Don't hesitate to call any of the normal cooperative Cape Charles 3.0 5.0 8.4
observers ... County or City agencies ... or Amateur Radio observers to get Wachapreague 7.5 11.0 12.3
Information on the severity or extent of flooding. Chfncogteague 2.5 6.0 8.4

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> REMEMBER ... GIVE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE ABOVE MEAN
LOW WATER ... ABOVE NORMAL ... AND IN EXTREME FLOODING ABOVE
SOURCES OF WATER LEVELS...TIDAL INFORMATION OR SPECIAL MSL.
WARNING INFORMATION page EA 10/8

1. LOCAL TIDE GAGES AND/OR RECORDERS ESTIMATED TIDAL RECURRENCESINTERVALS(from Corps House
1. Sewells Point, Pier 2 at Norfolk Navy Base. Handar 423-6725. Document 215 2/3/64)
2. South Island Chesapeake Bay Bridge and Tunnel, Handar 464-2208.
3. City Seawall Pumping Station, dowtown Norfolk. Telemark 441-5396. RECURRENCE MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL(abv MSLaadd 1.25'to got MLW)
Coded message ... subtrack 1.0 to get MLW reading. INTERVAL NORFOLK NAVAL SHIPYARD SEWELLS
4. Fort Norfolk, Corps of Engineers, hours 8 to 5, M - F. 441-3665. YEARS PORTSMOUTH POINT
Subtrack 0.5 for MLW. 1 4.4 3.8
S. Portsmouth Naval Shipyard ... recorder In OD office, 24 hours 396-3221 5 5.5 4.9
subtrack 92.89 from reading to get MLW. 10 6.2 5.5
6. Langley AFB ... local 622-0052 ask for field weather or weather 25 7.1 6.3
forecaster or 1-764-5908. 50' 7.8 6.9
100 8.5 7.6
11. INFORMATION FROM OTHER LOCATIONS IN OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA The standard project flood-I in 500 year storm ... Is IS' MSL In downtown
Norfolk and 13' MSL at Sewells Point.
1. Gloucester Point ... VIMS ... 8 to 5 Mon - Pri...1-642-7272 ask for Dr.
Boone or Mr. Thomas. They must manually reed.Altemate phone I- >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
642-7000 (switchboard)
2. Lewlsette Marina, VA. Mr.Scerbo 529-7299 ... NOS Gage-They read it
In the morning but can give you a manual look see. ,
3. Wachapreague ... 787-5816...recorder, business hours only. Subtract
2 feet for MLW or ask for the reading in MLW.
4. Colonial Beach ... NOS recorder ... telemetered to WSFO, Washington or
call observer Mr. Jackson 224-7066.

A-6

TIME AND NORMAL TIDAL DEPARTURES FOR OTHER LOCATIONS Virginia Beach O.E.S. 427-4192/4228, Home 486-1340 Mark
BASED ON SEWELLS POINT Marchbank
HIGH WATER LOW WATER
Height Time Height Time Portsmouth O.E.S. 383-8551, Home 383-1800 Donald Brown
Outer Coast
Virginia Beach +0.9 -1:30 0.0 -1:35 Norfolk, O.E.S. 441-5600/5610 Home 497-1277 Jim Talbot
False Cape +1.1 -1:45 0.0 -1:45
Cape Henry +0.3 -0:52 0.0 -1:15 Hampton, O.E.S. 727-7414 Home 722-4850 Kurt Schaffer
Chesapeake Bay
Lynhaven Inlet -0.5 -0:13 0.0 +0:01 Any local statements that you feel are significant should go on NAWAS and
Bayville(Lynhav- -0:8 +0:46 0.0 +1:38 brought to the attention of those communities affected.
en)
Newport News +0.1 +0:20 0.0 +0:18 There will be many cases where WBC will Issue a Coastal Flood Warning
Jamestown -0.6 +2.54 0.0 +3:26 that you feel does not apply to coastal Virginia. If you have a Warning
Smithfield +0.3 +1.25 0.0 +1:18 where It appears our tides will not go to 5.5 feet or higher, the calls are
Gloucester Point -0.1 +0:16 0.0 +0:07 optional based on the amount of time you have. If you do call, make sure
Yorktown -0.1 +0:16 0.0 +0:07 you give some sort of a tide crest forecast at a minimum for Sewells Point
Windmill Point 0.48xSP+1.49 0.48xSP+2:08 with estimates for the other areas. See the following pages in this section
Urbanna 0.56xSP+2:38 0.56xSP+2:59 for forecast hints on estimating tide heights.
Gwyns Island 0.52xSP+1:25 0.52xSP+2:02
Chesapeake Bay Western Shore An example of a Coastal Flood Statement Is on the next page.
Muddy Creek -0.3 +3:14 0:0 +3.43 ... TIDES ABC INTERROGATION INFORMATION IN THIS SECTION...
Tangier Sound 0.64xSP+2:51 0.64xSP+2-48
Light >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;@>>>>>>>>>>
Onancock -0.77 +2.52 0.0 +3:09
Cape Charles -0.1 -0:18 0.0 -0:03 THE LISTED ARE DESCRIPTIONS OF THE EXTENT OF FLOODING
CAUSED BY SPECIFIC TIDAL FLOOD EVENTS.
Outer coast of the Eastern Shore should be taken off Sandy Hook NJ using
the NOS Tide Tables. An approximadon of the surge can be obtained by April 13, 1988
using our surge and that for BWH. There Is also an hourly listing of the tides Two high tides approximately 7AM and PM..The tide reached 5.8 feet above
for Wallops Island In the SDM. MLW at the Seawall and 5.9 feet above MLW and South Island for both high
tides. The storm was caused by a closed low aloft that drifted east through
Alabama, Georgia etc. the surface low was basically vertical with the upper
REFER TO THE NOS TIDE TABLES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION low and was just east of Wilmington NG during the morning high tide and
AND FOR OTHER LOCATIONS NOT LISTED ON THIS SHEET. about 100 miles see of HAT at the time of even Ing high. Winds from the
ENE to NE persisted from the previous afternoon and averaged 30 to 40
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>- MPH prior to the morning and evening high tide. Peak gusts over 50 knots
occurred at the coastal marine reporting stations until mid afternoon when
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CALL LIST they diminished prior to the evening high tide.
WSO NORFOLK VIRGINIA
Norfolk .... no damage, numerous streets were flo(;ded some impassable. The
MAKE COPIES dock area from the Omnl east through Bessles Place had water 2 to 4 feet
deep. The Tidewater Park area had flooded streets and at least two homes
The forecast office In Washington has the primary responsibility for issuing a had water a couple of Inches deep Into the living area. Ocean View and
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING. However, If time does not Willoughby had street flooding that backed up from street drains. The beach
permit a coordination call, the final responsibility rests with us especially for that was re-built two years ago saved them from structural damage from
the Hampton Roads Area where we have tide information and a forecast buildings too near the water. Erosion on the beaches was just under
(WBCMPECS). For local purposes a COASTAL FLOOD WARNING should moderate,
be Issued whenever the local height above MLW will be 5.5 to 6 feet or
greater. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING Issued by WBC will be followed as Hampton-no sign IfIcant damage, water Into 4 homes numerous streets
soon as possible by a COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT M:CFS. The flooded and some Impassable. Most of the flooding was In Buckroe and the
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT will also be used for all coastal flood Grandview areas and along Hampton Greek.
information that may be Issued following a Coastal Flood Watch Issued by
WSFO Washington. SEE OPERATIONS MANUAL LETTER 2-86 FILED Poquoson ... many streets covered with 4 Inches to 2 feet of water. 8 homes
WITH CHAPTER D-51 IN THE WSOM. known to have water In them, 200 to 300 had water around them.

DISSEMINATION FOR COASTAL FOOD WARNING Portsmouth ... no homes and no damage, Crawford Pky and a few other
streets wore Impassable.
1. Call the MIC
2. Prepare a Coastal Flood Statement M:CFS..address to ce and put it on Chesapeake...no known flood problem.
the NWR. Use TONE ALERT for the first statement of each new Coastal
Flood Warning. Newport News ... no known flood problem.

DATErrIME ISSUED Virginia Beach ... damage estimated at 3.6 million. Street flooding mainly in
CALL LIST the Lynhaven Shores, Bay Island, and some In Bay Colony. The majority of
the damage occurred in Sandbridge from erosion and wave action. One
Virginia Office of Emergency Services (read statement on home almost totally destroyed, 3 homes with major damage. A large section
NAWAS If WBC hasn't done so) of Sandfiddler Road was undermined and collapsed.

Virginia State Highway Department 494-2451 nights 487-3546 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Red Cress If major evacuation expected 446-7745 nights 427-
3823 (Rick Russell)

A-7

APPENDIX B - SELECTED STATE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGHIDURHAM, NO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWYORK NY
244 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 1991 230 PM EST SUN OCT 27 1991

GENLY SAME FCST AS PAST SVRL WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. FIRST DISC: INTERESTING FCST.
SL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN MUCH OF CNTRL AND NEARLY SUN
MORNING SINE HAD LOTS OF LOG THIS MORNING-AND BECAUSE NGM FIRST FCST PROB IS FOG. 18Z USCG STATIONS REPORTED VSBY FM 0 TO
BNDRY RH FCST NR 100 PCR OVERNIGHT AND LO LVL THICKENS CHART I MI IN FOG. USCG AT SANDY HOOK AND ROCKAWAY REPORTED 0 MI IN
THIS MRNG SHOWD WEAK WEDGE OVR PIEDMT. HAVE CONTD TO TRACK FOG AND FIRE ISLAND REPORTED 1/2 MI IN FOG. WITH SFC COLD FNT
BAND OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS OVER OPEN WATERS MOVG WWD TWD NO JUST MVG INTO EXTREME WRN NY AND PA ... THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO
CST. SINCE FEW MOVED INLAND LAST NIGHT..WL MENTION 20 PCT CHO IMMEDIATELY LIFT FOG. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOR ADVISORY FOR ALL
RW FOR CSTL ZNS..BUT WL RESTRICT ANY OTHERS TO CSTL WTRS COASTAL AREAS TNGT. FOG WILL LIFT WITH PASSAGE OF FNT LATE TNGT.
SUNISUN NGT. TRMW PTLY CLOUDY WITH LTL TEMP CHANGE.. THINK
GUID TEMPS AGAIN TOO LOW. SECOND FCST PROB IS CHO OF WHWRS TNGT. LEADING EDGE OF LGT
SHWRS IS OVER WRN NY AND PA. SHWRS MVG NE BETWEEN 20 AND 26
MAIN WX FTR TO CONCRND WITH IS MNLY A MARINE PROBLEM-FOR NOW KTS. BEST CHO OF SHWRS WILL FCST FOR NW NJ..ZONE I AND
UPR LO WHICH HAS NOW WORKED ITS WAY DOWN TO SFC NR 28N 66W IS ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES..NY ZONE 14. WILL IGNORE
FCST BY MIA TO MOVE NW TO 3ON70W (PER HIGH SEAS FCST) WITH 360 FWC PERCENT PROG POPS OF 20 PERCENT IN FOURTH PD. ATTM..SEE NO
NM OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN NFIN SEMICROL. THIS PUTS GALE FORCE JUSTIFICATION FOR THESE POPS.
WINDS WITHIN 60 MILE OF HAT BY LATE SUN. SAT PIX SHOWS SYSTEM IN
GULF MEX MOVGI EWD AND ITS OUTFLOW IS WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM THIRD FCST PROB IS WINDS. SFO LOW NORTH OF NY INTENSIFIES AS IS
OF CONCERN.. AND ITS OUTFLOW HAS BULGED BACK WNWWD IN MVS EAST..THEN COMBINES WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
RESPONSE. AVN MODEL AND MOST OTHER MDLS INCLUDING EUROPEAN GRACE WLL OFFSHORE DURING MON. SFC WIND GRAD BETWEEN STORM
MODELS TAK SYSTEM ON N.NOT NW OR W. BUT NGM HAS BEEN LOW PRES SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES SYS OVR SE CANADA
CONSISTENT IN PAST 2 TUNS IN CXSTS CLOSD SFC LO CNTR NT 28W INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER AREA MON. ATTM. WILL ISSUE GALE
76W..AND LOOP OF NGM BNDRY WINDS SHOWS WATCHG.FOR NOT WL UP WARNINGS FOR COASTAL WATER INCLUDING LI SOUNDS AND SCA FOR NY
WNDS TO 25 TO 30 KTS FOR CSTL WATERS BY SUN NGT..BUT TOO FAR HARBOR.
AWAY IN TIME TO ISSUE SCA.
GET READY FOR SIG CHILL. AUTUMN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
VERY DEEP WRN U.S. TROF FCST TO DEVELOP NEXT 36-48 HRS WITH RDG
AMPLIFY IN E. UPR TRO OFF NE U.S. CST DEEPENS A LTL LATE IN PD AND NY...SERN ... DENSE FOR ADVY TNGT Z14>17
NGM/AVN BOTH HINT AT SUBTLE PSBL BACKDOOR FROPA INTO NERN NO ... GALE WARNINGS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND LI SOUND
ON MON AFTERNOON. WL SHADE TEMPS DOWNWARD THERE ON ... SCA FOR NY HARBOR
CAUTIOUS SIDE..NC NONE GAF NJ NRN ... DENSE FOR ADVY TNOT Z05-07-15
... GALE WARNINGS FOR COASTAL WATERS

FORECAST DISCUSSION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
320 AM EST SUN OCT 27 1991 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE t RALEIGH, DURHAM, NO
222 AM EST WED OCT 30 1991
AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN EARLY AM. ALTHO A REPEAT OF THE PAST 2
OR 3 MORNINGS..WL PROBABLY ISSUE SPS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTS TO CSTL WRNG AND ADVSY. WILL DROP
GALES BACK TO SCA S OF CAPE LOOKOUT ... KEEPING GALE AND CSTL
MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING OF S/W TROF TO PASS FLOOD WRNGS CAPE LOOKOUT N. ALSO HEAVY SURF ADVSY ALG OUTER
THRU NE US TNGT. MOST ENERGY PASSES N OF FCST AREA SO HAVE BANKS TDA. MODELS CONTF TO POINT TO WNDS GRDLY BCMG MORE NE
KEPT POPS IN CHO CAT. ALTHO INCRSG MID/Hl CLDNS ... SOME SUN AND AFT TDA AS LARGE SFC LO PRES MEADERS ARND OFFSHR OF MID-ATLC
MILD TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL TDA ONCE FOG THIS OUT. BASED ON CUR RNG. ALTHO WNDS STILL BE RESPECTABLE ALG UPR CST TDA AND ON
TRENDS ... HAVE RESTRICTED ANY CHO SHWRS TDA TO JUST WRN ZNS. INTO THU LOOKS AS THO THEY MAY DMSHG SOME AS THEY COME MORE
CHO TSTM THIS EVE MAY BE LTL HEIR W THAN INDCTC ON FPC BUT STILL FROM OFF LAND. THIS DOES PRESENT A PRBLM WITH SOME SOUND SIDE
NOT VRY LKLY GIVEN ORIENTATION OF INSTBLTY AXIS AND DYNAMICS. FLOODING ALG OUTER BANKS TNGT AND THU AND WILL MENTION THAT IN
OUTER BANKS FCST. OTRW BLOCKING PATN ALF WILL KEEP THINGS
IMPRESSIVE CAA MON BHND S/W TROF WITH INCRSG N TO NE FLOW. MOVING ALG RATHER SLOWLY BUT BEGINNING TO SEE THE OMEGA
GRADIENT IN CAA PATTERN CUD SUPPORT GALES OVR MUCH OF MARINE BLOCK WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLDS
AREA MON. HYBRID LO PRES SYSTEM SW OF BERMUDA BEARS CREEPING INTO W TNGT AND THU AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT
WATCHING-SPECLY FOR INCRSG SWELLS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS..BUT WL FCST. GENTLY OTHER ASPECTS OF FCST LOOK OK AND WILL ONLY MAKE
PROBABLY REMAIN WELL S AND E OF AREA. AN MINOR ADJUST CAPE LOOKOUT N
.NC GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS HERE AND THERE.
HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS INDCTD BY LTST AVN RUN OUT ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONE 1.
TO 72 HRS. THUS CANNOT REACH THE ONSET OF THE WARMER RETURN ... CSTL FLOOD WARNING S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
FLOW IN THE EFP. ... SCA S OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND ON ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS.
WRKZFP AVBL FOR YOUR REVIEWICOMMENTS.
.MA ... NONE. GALES MAY BE REQUIRED MON MAZBOI-502 AND OFFSHORE. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
.RI-NONE. SCA MAY BE REQUIRED MON FOR RIZ501.
.CT...NONE.
REFER TO NYCCWFNYC FOR MARINE ADVYS/WRNGS.

B-1

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION DUCK AT 10FT. IN CSTL WTRS DSLN7 TO 16 FT FROM 14Z 8 FT WHILE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM, NO 130 E OF HAT BOUY UP FROM 16 TO 18 FT. MEANWHILE WHILE CFP
316 PM EST SUN OCT 27 1991 PASSAGE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENED AND NE WNDS AT OREGON
INLET..HAT INLET ... AND ON OCRACOKE INCAS FROM 15 KTS (21zO TO
TROPICAL STORM GRACE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH 986 MB OBN 30-35 KTS. ALSO DOPPLER AT WBS SHOWED 45 IN BNDRY LAYER.
LAST RECON AND MAY RCH HFIGN STRNGTH..AND CONT MOVG NW SINCE SUNOPTIC PATTERN SO FAVORABLE FOR CSTAL FLOODING
UNTIL IT SHUD TURN MORE TO N. LONG PD SWELLS HAVE ALREADY OVER PROLONG PERIOD FELT LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WITHIN NEXT
LAPPED AT THE CSTLN AND HVY SWELLS WL CONT TO MOVE ASHORE 12 HOURS TOO LIKELY TO LEAVE AS WATCH.
TNGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT. SO WL CONT HVY SURF ADV FOR
EN11RE CST ... SEAS ARE UP TO 13-15 FT AT 41001 BOUY 130 MI E OF FEW CHNGS TO INLAND ZNS. FNT VCTY OF SE CST VERBAL OLDS
HAD AND 7-9 FT AT DIAMOND SHOALS. SITUATION WL GET EVN WITH IT.
WORSE MON INTO TUE AS STG HI PRES BLDS SE SM SEAN CAN. DRY
CDFNT WL PRECEDE THIS HI PRES SYSTM. EXPOT FNT TO MOVE INTO NC ... GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS AND ABEMARLE AND PAMLICO
NAN CSTL WATERS LATE MON AFTN OR EARLY EVE. SINCE THIS IS LOOKOUT
CLOSE ENUF TO THE 24 HR THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING GALES..PLAN ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 ASND 16
TO ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR csn WATER N OF CAPE LOOKOUT. ... SOUND FLOODING LIKELY,SOUTH END OF PAMLICO SOUND.
WNDS MAY ACTUALLY GO MORE NLY MOE NGT WHICH WL MAZIMIZE
SEAS ALG THE CST. WITH MORE THAN 10 FT SEAS CAN GET SOME >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
PROPERTY DMG FM MAJOR EROSION AND/OR FLDG..SO PLAN TO
ISSUE CSTL FLD WATCH FOR OUTER BANKS ... ZN 2 FOR MON INTO STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
TUES. TIME OF Hl TIDE THERE IS JUST BFR NOON MON. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM,NC
253 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991
OTRW NGM BNDRY MSTR SHOWS BAND OF HI RH ALG FNT LATE
MON/MOD NGT SPCLY IN NE. SO ... CAN ENVISION PILY-MOSTLY CLDY SEAS CONT TO BLD ALG CST. WL CONIT GALE WFINGS N CST AND
SKIES FOR A WHILE MON NGT AND TUE..WITH STG COOL ADVCTN. WL UPGRADE TO MINIMAL GALE WRNGS CST. HURON HAS SLOWED TO
SAY WNDY E/BREEZY W AND COOLER TUE STATEWIDE. CRAWL AND SINCE STILL TO TIGHT GRADIENT NTWN STG HI BLDG IN
AND THE HURON. WL ALSO ISSUE GALE WFINGS FOR SOUNDS WITH
SML CHC SHWRS NOT OUT OF QSTN IN MTNS AS PER GOING FOST 25035 KTS MENTIONED. UPR LOIHURCAN MAY GET ADSORBED IN TROP
DUE TO TN PRECIP PSLY MOVG E..SO DO NOT PLAN TO CHG. EXITS CAN MARTIMES THEN REORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPR
AND SFC LO...PER NE MODEL RUNS. A GLANCE AT THE OXU ... UKMET
DO NOT EXPECT WNDS TO INCAS TO SCA CRITERIA TIL MON OVA SCENARIO FRO THURS EVE WOULD RAISE YOUR EYEBROWS1 ... WITH
SOUNDS SO WL NOT ISSUE SCA THERE. WL LV UP SCA CSTL WATERS DEEP LO ONCE AGAIN BTWN HAT AND BERMUDA. AGREE WITH NMC
AN DIMPLY GALES MON NGT. HEMISPHERIC DISCUSSION THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PROLONGED
PD OF PSBL CSTL FLDG. SINCE HAVE NOT HAD DLDG PROBLEMS AS
.NG ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 16 YET ... WL NOT UPGRADE TO WANG ... BUT WK EXTEND GSTL FLD WATCH
... GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE THU WED.
LOOKOUT
... SCA CTSL WATERS FM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO LITTLE RIVER BAND OF LO OLDS ACRS NE 1/2 OF NO ASSOCD WITH CDFNT..WITH
INLET RAIN REPORTED AT EGG PAS Hrl. MODELS GIVE CLR TO SOT FOR OLD
... CSTL FLOOD WATCH MON INTO TUES OF VA BEACH TO CAPE GUID MOST AREAS TNGT SO THAT/S NOT BELIVERED. WL GO WITH
LOOKOUT MSTLY OR PRLY CLDY MOST PLACES. ALSO WINDY SPCLY IN E THRU
TUE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECD. BUT THEREIN LIES NEXT
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PROBLEM. PPC TEMPS BLO FREEZG AT RDU ... GSO ... AVL TUR NGT.
WITH WINDS AND LO LVL MSTR PERHAPS HANGING ARND ... WL OPT
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR HIER NGM TEMPS ... IN MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR NOW.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
830 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991 ALSO ... PLAN TO MENTION SHALLOW SOUNDSIDE FLOODING PSBL IN
ZN 17 ON S SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND TNGT AND TUE ESPECIALLY AT
DISC: EVEN ANAL SHWS STAN HI E OF JMS BAY IN CAN LO PRES SE TIME OF HI TIDE.
OS NS AND OFF COURSE HUR GRACE W OF BERMUDA. ALL THREE OF
THESE SYS WL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OUR WX DURG THE NXT DAY NC ... GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS AND ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
OR TWO. FIRST HI PRES WL GV US CLR SKIES TNGT AND TMRW AS IT SOUND
MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY EWD. THIS SYS COMB WITH LO SE WL LV ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 16
GALE WRNGS UP OVERNGT FOR CSTL WTRS AND KP WINDY IN OUR ... CSTL FLOOD WATCH THRU WED S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE
FCST. SEAS WL BLD AS WELL OVERNT AND SWELLS WITH EFFECT LOOKOUT.
CSTL AREAS. CUD SEE SOM BREACH EROSION AND SM POSS FLDG
AT TIMES OF HI TIDES MNLY ON TUE ARND NOON FOR SNDY HK AND N GAF
SIDE OF MONTAUK. WL HV TO KP EYE ON THIS ANY MAY HV TO
FOLLOW UP WITH A STATEMENT BY MRNG..BUT WL LV THAT UP TO >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MANG FRSTR TO SEE HOW SNDS ARE BLOWING. RGT NOW ALL IS GD.
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NO REAL CHNGS TO FOST OCKG ATTEN..WL KN MINOR ADJUSTMENT. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
WL KP GALE WNGS OVA NJ GSTL..NY HRBR AND LI SOUND, ALSO 930 AM EST MON OCT 28 1991
HEAVY SURF ADVY OVA ii csn AND ERN LI FOR TNGT THRU TUES.
DISC: STG HI PRES OVA EN CAN WILL INTSFY GRDNT AND GIVE US
.NY ... SEAN GALE WANG FOR COASTAL WATERS ... LI SOUND AND NY STAG WINDS OVER FOST AREA THU TUES. HUR GRACE MVG NWD AND
HARBOR. NVY SURF ADVY FOR ERN LI. THEN NEWD WILL REMAIN WEL OFFSHR THIS WILL CMBN WITH THE HI
.NJ ... NAN ... GALE WANG FOR COASTAL WATERS AND HVY SURF ADVY PRES OVER CAN WITH CONT STRONG WINDS.
FOR CST.
HAVE GALE WARNINGS OVER NJ CSTL..NY HARBOR AND LI SOUND.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ALSO HEAVY SURF ADVY OVER NJ COASTAL AND SEAN FOR TONIGHT
THAL) TUES.
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE NO ADJ FOR TEMPS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALIEGH/DURHAM, NO NY ... SEAN ... GALE WANG FOR COASTAL WATERS ... LI SOUND ... AND NY
1035 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991 HARBOR.HVY SURF ADVY FOR ERN LI.
.NJ ... NAN GALE WANG FOR CSTAL WATERS AND HVY SURF ADVY FOR
CSTL FLD WANG WAS ISSUED BECAUSE WNDS/SEAS INCREASED CST.
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVE. DUCK PIER WEST TO 12 FEET.
HISTORICALLY SOME OVERWASH HAS OCCURRED OUTER BANKS WITH >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

B-2

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ... CSTL FLOOD WATCH THRU WED S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON, MA LOOKOUT.
315 PM EST MON OCT 28 1992

GRACE ... SEE TCPATI AND TCDAT1.
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM EXPECTED TO AT LEAST AFFECT MA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA
THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND HEAVY SURF AND MAYBE 245 AM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
RAIN WED-FRI. SEE PMDHMD/EPD.
GRACE..SEE TCPATI AND TCDAT1.
BASICALLY THE FIRST STG WIND SURGE W CAA APPEARS TO HAVE
OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING. CHH PEAK 53 MPH; FALMOUTH 52 GRACE IS EXPECTED TO BCM ABSORBED IN LOW TO N AS 5H LOW
MPH AND KALMUS 51 MPG. TIGHTEN UP AGAIN SOMETIME WED OR CUTS OFF. BOTH LFM AND AVN MODELS SHOWS SFC SYSTEM
THUR. MODELS TAKE A PIECE OF GRACE A SPLIT IT NE LEAVING LOTS ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING W THRU PD ENDING UP NEAR 38.ON. AND
OF TROP JUICE BEHIND TO INTERACT W UNUSUAL AND NEAD RECORD 65.OW AND THEN WNW AFTERWARDS. AVN IS CONSIDERABLY
UA ANOMALIES AND HFC DEVELOPING S OF BENCH MARK LATE TUE STRONGER (17 MB) ON INTENSITY OF LOW SO LFM WIND
AND CARVING OUT A MAJOR OCEAN STORM SSE OF BENCHMARK. SO FCST..ALREADY STG ... COULD BE UNDERDONE. 18Z WED HAD ACK AT
ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT MAY OCCUR MIDWEEK ... HEAVY SURF 04461
ADVYS HAVE EVEN BEE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AND WILL HOLD OF
ON SAME UNTIL MRPECS CAN GIVE US MAJOR BEACH EROSION PBLM WITH THIS IN MIND HV DECIDED TO GO WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
WHICH IS POSSIBLE DURING MINOR LATE WK. WILL CONT AND ZFP WATCH FOR THE SAME AREAS MENTIONED BEFORE IN SPS. MRPECS
MENTION OF BEACH EROSION. LOOKS LIKE A PUZZLE TO BE CONSIDERABLE WIND DIRECTION. MORE
ONSHORE AT BOS THEN AT SFD YET SFD GREATER STORM SURGE?7?
EFPMA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR POTENTIAL RAIN/HIGH WIND BASED THANKS TO NYC FOR CO-ORD ON THIS ONE.
ON ECMWF/UKMET EVEN FURTHER W THAN MRF AND STM CENTER 12
TO 18MB DEEPER THAN MRF. SINCE SO MUCH COLD AIR DRIVING SW LOOKS LIKE ERN MA WL GET CHO FOR RAIN LATE WED AS LOW
INTO THE SYSTEM ACRE E NEW ENG NEXT 24 HRS...MAJOR OCEAN APCHS.
STORM APPEARS LIKELY AS THE COLD AIR MIXES W WARM TROP
WTERS AND LEFTOVERS FROM FRACE. IT CONCEIVABLE 60KT WINDS MA ... GLW ... CFA2..3..7,.8
MAY B N OF THE ENTER OF THE NEXT 4/5 DAYS. RI ... GLW.
.CT ... NONE.
BLV LK EFFECT S14WRS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY TUE AM CAPE REFER TO NYCCWFNYC FOR MARINE ADVYS/WRNGS.
CODE AS- 5 IN NFIN MARINE ROLLES OVER THE +12 h20 OFFERING 17
SPREAD EARLY TUE. 7H/SH/BL FLOW SIMILAR WHICH IS FVBL FOR >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@.>>>>>>>>>>>N>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUSTAINING SHWR COLUMNS THO INVERSION WILL CAP POTENTIAL.
HAVE ADDED OLDS TO CAPE AND SE MA THIS THINKING IN MIND. FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHER NEW ENGLAND
ALREADY FPC GUIDANCE WAY TOO COLD AT ORH INCLUDING TO DRY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA
1015 AM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
FPO GUIDANCE RAISED CONSIDERABLY HIGHER ALL STNS NEXT 4
PRDS. BL OF 35 OVER HTO OF 54 GIVE LOW OF 45 ON CAPE. DANGEROUS OCEAN STOWN..PROBABLY ONE OF THE WORST SINCE
THEREFORE GUIDANCE ADJUSTED. THE BLIZZARD OF 78 ... IS HEADING SW PER PPP FALLS TO THE SW OF
THE CENTER AND RISES TO THE N AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> IMAGERYI COORD NMC ON MARINE.

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION ALREADY 3 DOZEN BOATS BEACHED OR SUNK AT NAUSET BEACH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM, NO BEACH EROSION SIGNIFICANT CHH/NAUSET. SHIP REPORT AT 41/59 OF
253 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991 63 FOOT SEAS WHICH IS PROBABLY HIGH BUT A SIGN OF THE
PROBLEMS UPCOMING. THAT SAME VESSEL REPORTS SEAS OF 33
SEAS CONT TO BLD ALG CST. WL CONT GALE WRNGS N CST AND FEET. AVN MODEL SUPPORTS STORM CENTER TO NR GEORGE BANK
UP\GRADE TO MINIMAL GALE WRNGS S CST. HURON HAS SLOWED TO 12Z THU ... IF THIS OCCURS ... MAJOR PBLMS COASTAL CAPE GOD BOTH
CRAWL AND SINCE STILL TO THE SE OF HAT ... PROLONGED PD OF IN AND OUTSIDE. 65 KT SFC WIND YSA AT 13Z.
SWELLS MOVG ASHORE EXPECTED..AS WLL AS TIGHT GRADIENT
BTWN STG HI BLDG IN AND THE HURON. WL ALSO ISSUE GALE WRNGS HEAVY SURF ADVY BEING ISSUED NOW FOR SWELL DESPITE
FOR SOUND WITH 25-35 KTS MENTIONED. UPR LO/HURCAN MAY GET TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WIND FIELD. CFA CONTINUED FOR E COAST
ABSORBED IN TROF EXITS CAN MARTIMES ... THEN REORGANIZE INTO CAPE COD. HIGH WIND WATCH WOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR CAPE
ANOTHER DEEP UPR AND SFC LO PER NEW MODEL ROUNDS. A COD WED BUT PRIMARILY USED IN MTN AREAS AND ALREADY
GLANCE AT THE OXU UKMET SCENIONATIO FOR THUS EVE WOULD STRONGLY WORDED IN CWFBOS W MAIN THRUST HIGH WIND WED
RAISE YOUR EYEBROWSI ... WITH DEEP LO ONCE AGAIN BTWN HAT AND NITE/THU AM.
BERMUDA. AGREE WITH NMG HEMISPHERIC DISCUSSION THAT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PROLONGED PD OF PSBL CSTL FLDG. SINCE CONSULT W STAMFORD CODE AND SURGE SO FAR THIS SYSTEM HAS
HAVE NOT HAD FLDG PROBLEMS AS YET..WL NOT UPGRADE TO BEEN HALF OF MRPECS PREDICTION SO NO OFA WED BUT PRIMARILY
WRNG. BUT WL EXTEND CSTL FLD WATCH THRU WED. USED IN MTN AREAS AND ALREADY STRONGLY WORDED IN CWFBOS
W MAIN THRUST HIGH WIND WED NITE/THU AM.
BAND OF LO OLDS ACRS BE 112 OF NO ASSOOD WITH CDFNT..WITH
RAIN REPORTED AT ECG PAST HR. MODELS GIVE CLR TO SOT FOR YDY PEAK WIND WAS 48KT AND CHH. IPW ETM AT CHH. MWN WIND
OLD GUID MOST AREAS TNGT SO THAT/S NOT BELIEVED. WL GO WITH HAS TURNED NE AND CLDS/SHWRS W 8H AIR SEA WATER DIFF ON
MSTLY OF PTLY CLDY MOPT PLACES. ALSO WINDY SPCLY IN NFINLY 22 DEGS MEANS HEAVY SHWRS OF SLEET AND RAIN SHUD
E ... THRU TUE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED. BUT THEREIN LIES START BEING BLOWN WWD SOMETIME SOON.
NEXT PROBLEM. FPC TEMPS BLO FREEZG AT RDU..GSO..AVL TUR NGT.
WITH WINDS AND LO LVL MSTR PERHAPS HANDING ARND ... WL OPT GRACE ... SEE TOPAT1 AND TCDAT1.
FOR HEIR NGM TEMPS ... IN MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR LOW.
LFM 1 HR LATE..ALREADY FASTER W RAIN TO SW HEADING OFR NEW
ALSO ... PLAN TO MENTION SHALLOW SOUNDSIDE FLOODING PSBL IN ENG. RW--AT CHH AT 151OZ. NGM STARTED LATE TOO. ONLY 4 @
ZN 17 ON S SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND TNGT AND TUE ESPCLY AT TIME CANADIAN UA STNS IN MODEL MAY AFFECT MODEL POSITS A BIT.
OF HI TIDE.
RELYING HEAVILY ON LAST NIGHTS AVN MODEL.
.NC GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS AND ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>:@>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
... HVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 16 B-3

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW EN GLAND
NATIONAL WERATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA
140 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991

OCEAN STORM SHOULD BE WEAKING AND FOLLOWING NGM TRENDS
PER OCCLUSION. CHH MAY BE SEEING CENTER OF STORM ON RADAR.
HEAVY STORM DAMAGE AS WE ARE MOVING THRU HI TIDE COASTAL
FLOODING NOW. BELIEVED THE WORST OF TIDAL FLOODING NOW
WILL CONTINUE CFW THRU THUS AS PREV BUT WORD THAT WORST
MAY HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTN. CT COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
UNKNOWN ATTEN BUT TIDES THIS AM WERE 2-3 FT ABV NORMAL AND
EXPECT TO RUN 3-4 FT ABV NORMAL AT 11ME OF HI TIDE THIS AFTN:
MAYBE THIS TIDAL FLOODING PBLM CAN BE TERMINATED ON THE 4
AM THURSDAY PKG. WEAKENING SFC PPP MAY ALLOW SLOWLY
LOWERING SURGE W HUGE SWELL EVER SO SLOWLY DAMPENING
OUT NEXT 72 HRS.

HEAVY RAIN BANDS PROBABLE AND ASSTD STREET FLOODING DUE
TO LEAF CLOGGED DRAINS. SWISS IMAGERY SHWG STORM MOTION
1016 SINCE 12Z .... WHEN WILL IT LOOP S? WIL THERE B A 50 KT LOW
LVL WIND FIELD 200 MI OUT FM CENTER EVEN TOMORROW DESPITE
THE WKNG OCCLUDED CENTER.

HAVE SEEN SVRL 80KT SHIP REPORTS W WAVES OF 50 TO 71 Fr.

HWW PROBABLY MAY BE TERMINATED IN PART ON THE 9 PM
PKG ... WORST IS OR SHUD HAVE OCCURRED BY OOZ/31 PER FD (1,2,3)
FAI 3 K WINDS AT GO$/ACK.

FOR THE RECORD HAD 3 REPORTS OF SLEET
TDY ... WOBURN...NEWTON CTR AND OSTERVILLE (EVAP COOLING PER
NGM T3/T5 PREDICTORS)

GRASS FIRES ETC REPORTED IN SOME AREAS WHERE IT WAS
PARCHED TDY W STG WIND. (BURNING LEAVES?)

1815Z SCATTERED REPORT PWR OUT AND TREES DOWN RI/E MA.
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING BRANT PT.

. MA ... HWW MAZO01>004-007>009 FOR THIS EVE. ENTIRE CST THRU
STORM ALL CWF.
.RI ... STORM RlZ501. CFW ENTIRE CST THRU THUS. HWW ALL Ri.
CT ... CFW ENTIRE CT CST FOR THRU THU.
REFER TO NYCCWFNYC FOR MARINE ADVYS/WRNGS.
DRAG

B-4

APPENDIX C - SELECTED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, TURN SW AFTER 12 HRS. WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS AND SEAS 14 TO 22 FT
WASHINGTON, DC WITHIN 550 NM W QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS
2200 UTC SUN OCT 27 1991 SEAS 10 TO 18 FT WITHIN 900 NM OF CENTER. FORECAST STORM
59N 36W 998 MN. FORECAST WINDS 40 TO 55KTS AND SEAS TO 30 FT
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH 32N TO 65N WEST OF 35W WITHIN 450 NM W QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 30 TO 45 KTS
FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 29 1991 SEAS 12 TO 20 FT WITHIN 600 NMOF CENTER.

WARNINGS. GALE 48N 29W 999 MB AT 0600 UTC MOVING E 25 KTS. WINDS 25 TO
30 KTS AND SEAS 11 TO 17 FT WITHIN 500 NM OVER THE SW
SEE S OF 32N FOR HURRICANE GRACE 31.5N 67.8W AT 2200 UTC. SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST GALE AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

DEVELOPING STORM 45N 73W 1013 MB AT 1800 UTC MOVING E 25 SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
KTS WILL TURN ESE 20 KTS AFTER 18 HRS. BY 1200 UTC OCT 28
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO EXPECT AS NOTED IN WARNING SECTION WINDS INCREASING TO 20
16 FT WITHIN 400 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST STORM TO 30 KTS SEAS 8 TO 15 FT N OF 35N W OF 48W.
42N 55W 999 MB. EXCEPT AS MENTIONED IN WARNINGS SECTION
FOR AREA S OF 32N FORECAST WINDS 40 TO 55 KTS AND SEAS 14 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TO 24 FT W OF A LINE FROM 46N 5OW TO 40N 60W. ELSEWHERE
FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS AND SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 650 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON,
NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. DC
1000 UTC TUE OCT 29 1991
GALE 5ON 38W 996 MB AT 1800 UTC MOVING E 25 KTS THEN TURNING NORTH ATLANTIC NOTHER OF 32N TO 65N WEST OF 35W
NE OVER THE NEXT 18 HRS. WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS AND SEAS 12 TO IS FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 30 1991
FT WITHIN 550 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST GALE E OF
AREA. FORECAST WINDS DESCRIBED WITH DEVELOPING STORM WARNINGS. CORRECTED CURRENT POSITION OF HURRICANE GRACE
MENTIONED ABOVE.
SEE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECASTS S OF 32N FOR CURRENT
SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE GRANCE 31.6N 64.2W AT 1000 UTC.
FORECAST EXTRATROPICAL CENTER 38.5N 57.5W AND MERGING
HIGH 38N 47W 1026 MB AT 1800 UTC MOCING ESE 15 KTS WITH A WITH DANGEROUS STORM DISCUSSED NEXT PARAGRAPH.
RIDGE EXTENDING WNW THRU 41 N SOW AND ANOTHER ESE THRU DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS ARE DESCRIBED
33N 35W. FORECAST HIGH 36N 36W 1024 MN. IN RELATION TO THIS DANGEROUS STORM.

DAS DANGEROUS STORM 42N 55W 994 MB AT 0600 UTC MOVING E 15 KTS
WIL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THEN DRIFT SW AND MERGE
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> WITH REMAINS OF HURRICANE GRACE. CURRENT WINDS 55 TO 70
KTS SEAS 17 TO 27 FT WITHIN 250 NM N SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON, WITHIN 700 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KTS SEAS 14 TO 24
DC FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 1000 NM W QUADRANT AND STORM 39N
1000 UTC MON OCT 28,1991 56W 981 MB. FORECAST WINDS So TO 70 KTS SEAS 25 TO 35 FT
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 32N TO 65N WEST OF 35W WITHIN 400 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS AND SEAS 15
.FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 29 1991 TO 25 FT.

HURRICANE GRACE 32.5N 68.9W AT 1000 UTC MOVING NW 8 KTS BUT STORM 6ON 39 W 989 MB AT 0600 UTC WILL MOVE SE KTS. WITHIN
WILL TURN NE AND ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 500 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KTS SEAS 20 TO 30 FT.
65.KTS GUSTS TO 80 KTS. RADIUS OF 50 KTS WINDS 125 NM E ELSEWHERE WITHIN 600 NM OF CENTER WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS SEAS
SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE. RADIUS OF 34 KT WINDS 13 TO 23 FT. FORECAST STORM 57N 32W 992 MB. FORECAST WINDS
AND SEAS 12 FT OF HIGHER 350 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 200 NM S 35 TO 50 KTS SEAS 18 TO 28 FT WITHIN 400 NM OF CENTER.
SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST HURRICANE 35.ON 65.5W. FORECAST
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KTS GUSTS TO 80 KTS. RADIUS OF SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
34 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 12 FT OR HIGHER 350 NM N SEMICIRCLE
AND 200 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEE DEVELOPING STORM BELOW FOR EXCEPT WHERE MENTIONED IN WARNINGS ABOVE WINDS 20 TO 30
FORECAST OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE W AND N OF KITS SEAS 10 TO 18 FT N OF 43 N.
HURRICANE.
EXCEPT WHERE MENTIONED IN WARNING ABOVE WINDS 20 TO 30
DEVELOPING DANGEROUS STORM 46N 63W 1013 MB AT 0600 UTC KTS SEAS TO IS FT W OF 50W.
MOVING E 35 KTS WILL TURN SE AND SLOW BY 12 HRS. BY 1800 UTC
OCT 28 WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10 TO 17 FT WITHIN 450 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST
DANGEROUS STORM 41 N 54W 990 MR. FORECAST WINDS 50 TO 65
KTS AND SEAS 22 TO 32 FT WITHIN 400 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 900 NM W QUADRANT AND 200 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.

STORM 62N 32W 980 MT AT 0600 UTC WILL MOVING W 10 KTS WILL

C-1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WINDS ... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982- MB.
WASHINGTON,DC
1600 UTC WED OCT 30 1991 AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WIL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI NOV 01 1991 HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT NOON AST..l 1 AM EST.
WARNINGS
DANGEROUS STORM 40N 64W 972 MB AT 1200 UTC MOVING W 10 LAWRENCE
KTS TURNING SW. WINDS 55 TO 70 KTS AND SEAS 35 TO 50 FT
WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND W QUADRANT. ALSO... WINDS 40 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TO 50 KTS SEAS 25 TO 40 FT WITHIN 450 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND
600 NM NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS AND SEAS TROPICAL STORM GRACE-ADVISORY NUMBER 10
15 TO 30 FT WITHIN 750 NM OF CENTER. FORECAST STORM 37N 70W NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
988 MB. FORECAST WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS AND SEAS 20 TO 35 FT 6 PM AST TUE OCT 29 1991
WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 25
TO 40 KTS AND SEAS 16 TO 25 FT WITHIN 600 NM OF CENTER SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GRACE HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY A
EXCEPT WITHIN 750 NM OVER NE QUADRANT. COLD FRONT AND IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

AREA OF WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS; AND SEAS 18 TO 30 FT N OF 45N OF AT 6 PM AST..22OOZ_.THE CENTER OF GRACE WAS'LOCATED NEAR
45W. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 35 KITS AND SEAS IS TO 22 FT N OF LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH..LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OF ABOUT 460
40N AND E OF 50 W. FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS AND AREAS 12 MILES ... 740 KM..EAST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
TO 16 FT N OF 58N AND W OF GREENLAND WITH MODERATE
SUPERSTRUCTURE ICING. GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAT 40 MPH ... 65
KMtHR..AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH ... 110 KM/HR..AND
HIGH SON 65W 1043 MB AT 1200 UTC MOVING ESE 15 KTS. FORECAST WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH 49N 51 W 1033 MB.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
EXCEPT WHERE DESCRIBED ABOVE WINDS TO 25 KTS AND SEAS TO MILES ... 370 KM.
14 FT W OF 45W N OF 32N.
REPEATING THE 6 PM AS POSITION..34.ON... 57.OW.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MOVEMENT..NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ... 70 MPH.
HURRICANE GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL THE REMNANTS OF GRACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A
6 AM AST MON OCT 281991 DEVELOPING MAJOR STORM OFF THE U.S. EAST FRONT LAST
TONIGHT. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA, REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL BE CARRIED IN THE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER
STEERING CURRENT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP GRACE WELL OFF IN WASHINGTON.
THE U.S. EAST COAST. HOWEVER..THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AND ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
NORTHERN U.S. ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
PROGRESS OF GRACE.
PASCH.
AT 6 AM AST .. I OOOOZ ... THE CENTER OF GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH ... LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 235 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MILES ... 380 KM ... WEST OF BERMUDA.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ... 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND ME
KWHR..AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS 430 AM EDT WED OCT 30 1991
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
... MARINE STORM WARNINGS AND LARGE SURF FOR COASTAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH ... 120 KN/HR..AND SECTIONS TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY.
A VERY LARGE AND INTENSE OCEAN TOWN CENTERED 600 MILES
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
MILES..55KN FROM THE CENTER..AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE NORTHWEST. WINDS AND EAVE ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES..650 KM TO THE NORTH INCREASING OVERNIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING FREQUENT
OF THE CENTER AND UP TO 225 MILES..360 KM..TO THE SOUTH OF WINDS GUSTS OF OVER 40 KNOTS WERE BEING REPORTED ALONG
THE CENTER. THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTS AS WELL AS SWELLS OF
10 FEET. DURING THE DAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
THE LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CLOSER TO LAND, WIND WILL INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
CENTER IS PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GUSTS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 TO 20
U.S. EAST COASTAL FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD. FEET. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. DON'T UNDER ESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE OCEAN. LARGE WAVES
CAN BE DEADLY. COASTAL RESIDENTS AND THOSE VISITING THE
T14E MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE SHORE TODAY SHOULD NOT VENTURE TOO CLOSE TO THE WAVES.
AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MR ... 29.00 INCHES.
FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY.
REPEATING THE 6 AM AST POSITION ... 32.5 N ... 68.9W.
MOVEMENT ... NORTHWESTWARD NEAT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

C-2

BULLETIN ITEMS THAT CAN BE DAMAGED BY WATER-SUCH AS AUTOMOBILES
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAY ELECTRICAL ITEMS-SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND, ME WELL BEYOND THE WATERIS REACH.
530 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991
BOAT AND FLOATING DOCK MOORINGS SHOULD BE CHECKED TO
-COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE INSURE THERE IS ADEQUATE MOVEMENT FOR THE HIGH WATER.
COASTAL OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR TONIGHT.
THE UNUSUALLY HIGH WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY TO FLOT DEBRIS OFF
THE TIDE AT PORTLAND HARBOR PEAKED AT 13.2 FEET AT 445 PM. THE SHORE LIKE SUCH AS TREES AND WOOD-WHICH WILL THEN
THIS TIDE WAD 3.4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL-MAKING IT THE 7TH BECOME A HAZARD TO NAVIGATION IN THE RIVE, AND CAUSE
HIGHEST STORM SURGE IN PORTLAND HARBOR SINCE RECORD DAMAGE TO BOATS.
BEGAN IN 1914. THE TIDE WILL FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTHER HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 516 THE UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDES ARE CAUSED BY A STORM IN THE
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STORM REMAINING ATLANTIC. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT..SO
OFFSHORE ... MORE PROBLEMS WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ARE THAT THE HIGH TIDE TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE LOWER
LIKELY. THAN TONIGHT.
KILPATRICK
A WEATHER SPOTTER AT HIGGINS BEACH IN SCARBOROUGH >>>>>>>>;.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
REPORTED WATER BREAKING ONTO THE ROAD. THE ROAD TO THE
BEACH HAS BEEN CLOSED. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
BOSTON,MA
THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY A LARGE 420PM EST SUN OCT 27 1991
AND DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NATUCKET. WINDS AT THE PORTLAND LARGE ... A BEACH EROSION EPISODE MAY BE SETTING UP FOR LATE
NAVIGATIONAL BUOY WERE GUSTING TO 47 MPH WITH 18 FOOT AT 4 MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.
PM.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW
HEAVY SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS ALONG THE ENGLAND TONIGHT-USHERING IS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND
COASTAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DO NOT VENTURE NEAT ALLOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WATER TO WALK OF THE ROCK..YOU COULD BE SWEPT AWAY. NEW ENGLAND.

ALL OCEAN FRONTS AND BOATING INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP UP TO EARLIER TODAY A LARGE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA BEGAN TO TAKE ON TROPICAL
THE NATIONAL SERVICE. CHARASTERICS-AND HAS NOW BEEN CATEGORIZED AS TROPICAL
STORM GRACE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 PM TONIGHT. NORTHWARD BEFORE CURING NORTHEAST OF MONDAY ... AND WILL
VALUER SET UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AS A RESULT ... AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
FLOOD WARNING THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY HIGH SURF AND LARGE BREAKERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER
100 PM EDT THU OCT 31 1991 MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY..WITH SOME BEACH
EROSION POSSIBLE.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN THE BEAR MOUNTAIN BRIDGE IF THE PRESSURE FIELD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
AND THE TROY DAM. DEVELOPS ANY STRONGER..A COSTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED ... BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL.
SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING OF LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IS LIKELY STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
AT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TIME OF HIGH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS SITUATION.
TIDE SHOULD BE AROUND 6PM AT BEAR MTN BRIDGE.AROUND 730 RW
PM AT POUGHKEEPSIE...
AROUND 830 PM AT KINGSTONAOPM AT CATSKILL ... AND JUST >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE HIGH TIDE AT ALBANY WAS JUST UNDER 6.6 FT JUST BEFORE
NOON. IT WAS A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

WHILE THE TIDE BEGAN TO EBB AT ALBANY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOONAT'S NOT LIKELY TO DROP VERY MUCH. ALSO..THIS
EVENING'S TIDE IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE
NOONTIME TIDE BETWEEN SAUGERTIES AND TROY DAM. SOUTH OF
SAUGERTIES THE EVENING TIDE IS LIKELY TO BE A FEW INCHES TO
A FOOT HIGHER-AND THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF
LOWLANDS ALONG THE HUDON AND ITS INLETS EARLIER TODAY.

IN THE ALBANY'AREA..THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSE TO 8 FT ... WHICH WOULD PUT WATER INTO PARTS OF THE
CORNING PRESERVE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EITHER
OCCURRING ... OR LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE.

C-3

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE PREPARED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED.
315 AM TUE OCT 29 1991 DRAG

-COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
AND EXACT FACING COASTAL AREAS OF MASSACHUSETTS-
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON, MA
NEW ENGLAND AND HURRICANE GRACE NEAR BERMUDA HAS SET 430 PM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
UP NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO IS FT ... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
AND TIDES ARE ALREADY RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. VIRTUALLY OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY..
BY WEDNESDAY GRACE WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN ANOTHER LOW
SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARTIMES. THE NEW LOW CENTER WILL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR NORTH AND
BE CLOSE ENOUGH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EAST FACING COASTAL AREAS OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS
COASTAL TO CAUSE STORM FORCE WINDS OF THE NORTHEAST. NARRAGANSETT BAY.. BLOCK ISLAND AND THE SOUTH COASTAL OF
THESE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH TIDE DURING THE LAST CONNECTICUT.
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION, STRONG WAVES THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF HIGH TIDES
PRODUCED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND CHATHAM MA.
PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY/
DATE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (EST) HEIGHT (FEET) FLOODING BEGINS
NORTH AND EAST FACING COASTAL SECTIONS WILL EXPERIENCE BOSTON HARBORICHATHAN ABOVE MLLW ABOVE MLLW (MET)
THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONG WINDS. MOST VULNERABLE WED OCT 30 417 AW449 AM 9.3ffi.S 13.6/9.1
LOCALES APPEAR TO BE FROM CHATHAM NORTHWARD ON THE 433 PM1505 PM 10.217.1 13.619. 1
CAPE COD COAST. THU OCT 31 521 AM1553 I'M 9.4/6.6 13.6/9.1
W PM612 I'M I0.0f7.0 13.619.1
FRI NOV 01 824 AWSSS AM 9.716.8 13.6/9.1
REMEMBER..A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL THESE VALUES DO NOT TAKE IN ACCOUNT THE AFFECTS OF
OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION IN STORMS SURGES AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
CASE WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY. THIS SITUATION IS BEING
MONITORED CLOSELY. KEEP TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO ... TV ... OR THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLOODING SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. HIGH TIDE OCCURRENCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
GIRODO THURSDAY MORNING.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SEAS OF 25 TO 45 FEET HAVE OCCURRED TODAY FROM GEORGE
BANK EAT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH SEAS IS MOVING SOUTHWEST-CLOSER TO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA NEW ENGLAND. THIS STORM MAY PARK ITSELF TO THE SOUTH OF
200 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991 NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PROLONGING BEACH
EROSION DAMAGE AND COASTAL FLOOD THREATS.
... MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MANY EAST FACING MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL LOCATIONS... THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN MASSACHUSETTS ARE THREATENED
WITH COASTAL FLOODING-THE REGION FROM CHATHAM TO
UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF 2 HOUSES COLLAPSING HAVE BEEN PROVINCETOWN-PLUM ISLAND-REVERE BEACH..THE NHANT LYNN
RECEIVED FROM THE GLOUCESTER AREA. THE NAHANT CAUSEWAY CAUSEWAY.. THE REGION FROM HULL TO PLYMOUTH INCLUDING
HAS BEEN CLOSED. SCITUTAE AS WELL AS BRANT POINT ON NANTUCKET ISLAND. MANY
OF THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCE DAMAGE FROM
AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WATER SHOULD BE AROUND 4 FEET ABOVE HEAVY SURF. ALREADY SEVERAL DOZEN BOATS HAVE BEEN
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAMAGE TO EXPOSED EAST BEACHED OR SUNK NEAR NAUSET BEACH ON CAPE COD AND
FACING LOCATIONS. TIDAL RIVERS FACING INTO THE NORTHEAST NANTUCKET ISLAND.
WIND WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO MAJOR FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE ON THE WEST
OTHER MASSACHUSETTS LOCATIONS UNDER THE GUN FOR SIDE OF NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND AS
SERIOUS FLOODING ARE THE FOLLOWING ... THE REGION FROM WELL AS NEAR STAMFORD CONNECTICUT.
CHATHAM TO PROVINCETOWN.PLUM ISLAND ... REVERE BEACH ... THE
NAHANT LYNN CAUSEWAY ... THE REGION FROM QUINCY TO TODAY'S SURGE WAS ABOUT ONE AND ONE HELD FEET ABOVE THE
PLYMOUTH AND ESPECIALLY HULL AND SITUATE AS WELL AS 913ANT NORMAL TIDE. INCREASING WIND TOMORROW AND CLOSER
POINT ON NANTUCKET ISLAND. SOME ROADS NEAR THE COASTAL PROXIMITY OF T14E STORM SHOULD MAKE THE SURGE BETWEEN 2
WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE. AND 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL RAISING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE,
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND WILL BECOME MORE
SERVE AS TIDES RISE TOWARD THEIR MAXIMUM BETWEEN 330 AND BEACH EROSION..FROM THE HEAVY SURG WILL BE COMMON ALONG
630 PM. MANY EAST FACING COASTAL POINTS OF MASSACHUSETTS WITH
THE WORST EXPECTED ON THE LOWER AND OUTER CAPE.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THE VULNERABLE COASTAL
LOCATIONS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS STATEMENT AND PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY WILL BE THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING FOR EAST SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE PREPARED
FACING MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL POINTS SINCE THE BLIZZARD OF TO EVALUATE IF REQUESTED.
78.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL LOCATIONS

C-4

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT SHOULD STAY TUNED TO RADIO..TV ... OR NOR WEATHER RADIO FOR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA FURTHER STATEMENTS. THE NEXT STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
650 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991 SOON AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
CARBONE
...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ALONG MANY EAST FACING
MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
THE GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS DECLARED A STATE OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HARTFORD CT
EMERGENCY EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR THE NINE COASTAL COUNTIES 306 AM EST THU OCT 31 1991
OF MASSACHUSETTS.
A COSTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE SHORELINE OF
COASTAL FLOODING ... IN SOME LOCATIONS AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THE CONNECTICUT...
78 BLIZZARD ... HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND ROAD
CLOSING. MUCH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST FROM THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN 3 TO 4
MERRIMACK RIVER TO CHATHAM AS WELL AS THE ISLAND HAVE BEEN FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COASTLINE OF CONNECTICUT.
HARD HIT WITH MANY SHORE ROAD INUNDATED AND BOATS DESTROYED. ROADWAYS THAT BECAME FLOODED ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF HOUSES BEING SWEPT AWAY IN BECOME FLOODED AGAIN TODAY. THE FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITHIN 1
GLOUCESTER ... SWAMPSCOTT..AND NAUSET BEACH ON CAPE COD. HOUR ... EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED HALF WAY INTO DOWNTOWN
NANTUCKET BY. THE NANTUCKET NEWS. HERE ARE THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
COASTLINE.
WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS HIGH AS 78 MPH AT THE
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CHATHAM. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS NEW LONDON BRIDGEPORT STAMFORD CT
OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DUE TO 343 AM 527 AM 630 AM
DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS. 407 PM 554 PM 602 PM

FLOOD WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIME TILL GRADUALLY THE POWERFUL STORM PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE EARLY TIDES ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE WILL
THURSDAY MORNING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH-SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LAST ONE MORE DAY. THE STORM AT 300 AM WAS LOCATED 150 MILES
FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY. SOUTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. IT WAS TRACKING SOUTHWEST.

PEOPLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT TRAVEL UNLESS PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS SUBJECT TO COASTAL FLOODING DURING
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. DO NOT HEAD BACK INTO AREAS JUST ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL EXPERIENCE MORE FLOODING TODAY. TAKE
FLOODED BY THIS STORM TIDE DUE TO RECOVER EFFORTS AND THE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREVENT ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ASSOCIATED
RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING NEAR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE DURING THE WITH HIGH WATER. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FLOODED ROADWAYS.
THOMPSON SEKELSKY

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR RHODE ISLAND COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROVIDENCE RI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BRIDGEPORT CT
735 AM EDT WED OCT 30 1991 730 AM EST THRU OCT 31 1991

... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RHODE ISLAND ... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AN INTENSE ATLANTIC STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES
A DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET SOUTHEAST OF CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING. SWELLS BEING
ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN RHODE ISLAND THIS GENERATED BY THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE COASTAL
AFTERNOON. PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE ARE THE EAST FACING FLOODING TODAY-ESPECIALLY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
SHORES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY ... INCLUDING EAST FACING SECTION OF
THE ISLAND IN THE BAY. EAST FACING COASTAL SECTION OF THE STATC EARLY REPORTS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OCCURRED THIS
SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT-AND IN PARTICULAR POINT JUDITH..AND THE MORNING ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST. HAREST HIT AREA APPEARS
EAST SHORE OF BLOCK ISLAND WILL BE MOST AT RISK. THE ADDITION OF TO BE MILFORD ALTHOUGH DAMAGE REPORTS WERE NOT YET
EASTERN SWELLS OF UP TO 15 FEET COULD INTENSIFY THE PROBLEM AT AVAILABLE. AS OF 700AM ... SIKORSKI MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN STRATFORD
BLOCK ISLAND AND S COSTAL RI-ESPECIALLY IN THE POINT OF JUDITH WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODED RUNWAYS.
AREA OF NARRAGANSETT. SOME BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH HEAVY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE STATE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 400 AND 600 PM EST.
THE LAST HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING RAN 2 AND ONE HALF FEET HOWEVER ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDE
ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND LOWER SPREAD OR AS SEVERE AS THIS MORNING.
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE TODAY WILL RAISE TIDES EVEN HIGHER TODAY.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE..
HIGH TIDE AT PROVIDENCE IS AT 1:34 PM
HIGH TIDE AT NEWPORT IS AT 1:20 PM NEW LONDON ... 407 PM EST
BRIDGEPORT ... 554 PM EST
ANY FLOODING IN RHODE ISLAND COULD BEGIN WITHIN ONE HOUR OF STAMFORD ..... 602 PM EST
HIGH TIDE AND WILL PROBABLY COINCIDE WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS. THE NEXT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AS DAMAGE
REPORTS ARE RECEIVED AND EXACT TIDE GAGE READINGS ARE
THE MASSIVE INTENSE STRONG IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC WAS LOCATED OBTAINED.
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING BINGHAM
WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS WILL BRING IT CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING COASTAL SECTION OF RHODE ISLAND

C-5

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WEATHER MAP COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
DISCUSSION FOR NORTHER NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING LONG ISLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
420 AM EST MON OCT 28 1991
... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL SOUTHWARD TO MONTAUK POINT TO MANASQAUAN INLET NEW JERSEY
MANASQUAN INLET TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY... INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND ... NEW YORK HARBOR..AND
THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER...
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BRING ABOUT A NEW MASS OF
WEATHER FEATURES TODAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE AN INTENSE ATLANTIC STORM ... CURRENTLY LOCATED
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT PUSHED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK PINT ... HAS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS NOW
AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THE HEADING AWAY FROM THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER,
DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF NEW YORK CITY AND SWELLS BEING GENERATED BY THIS POWERFUL STORM
EASTWARD OVER LONG ISLAND PRETTY WELL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING TODAY,
DISSIPATED ... AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVED. ESPECIALLY NEA TIME OF HIGH TIDES. IT IS BELIEVED THAT
THE WORST FLOODING HAS JUST RECENTLY OCCURRED
WINDS SWITCHED AROUND TO NORTH ... AND THESE NORTH WITH THE PASSING OF OUT LATEST ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
WINDS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS DOWN FROM UPSTATE TIDE. DURING THIS PERIOD TIDES AROUND OUR REGION
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. COASTAL AVERAGED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE SUN MIXED WITH THE CLOUDS AT LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS
TIME ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS WILL OF LONG ISLAND AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LAST NIGHT
LIKELY HAVE LESS SUNSHINE. AND EARLY THIS MORNING. IN FACT THE TIDES HAVE RISEN
SO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THAT SOME RIVERS AND
THOSE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING STREAMS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY..THIAT FEED INTO THE
TODAY AS A COUPLE OF THINGS ARE HAPPENING. STRONG HUDSON RIVER OR NEW YORK BAY..HAVE EXPERIENCE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CONTRAST SHARPLY SOME SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THEIR BANKS.
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COASTAL.
ALSO ... HURRICANE GRACE WHICH WAS WEST OF BERMUDA MANY COSTAL SECTIONS REMAIN FLOODED AT THIS TIME
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THEN BUT WITH THE COMING OF LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
NORTHWARD TODAY AND CURVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING..MOST OF, THIS FLOODING SHOULD RECEDE.
TONIGHT ... MERGING WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNFORTUNATELY..OUR ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES ARE
SYSTEM. THESE ACTIONS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AIRFLOW OVER OUR TRI-STATE REGION DURING TODAY WHICH WOULD BEING US TO OUR NEXT SCHEDULED
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. THE STORM GENERATED TIDES
OF THEIR AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS THAN THOSE
COASTAL NEW JERSEY MAY SEE SOME SEARCH EROSION EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING..BUT
AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS NOWTHE-LESS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 1/2
MAINLY AS TIME OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND INTO AND 3 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT ANOTHER
TUESDAY AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RIDE A LONG EPISODE OF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ... HOWEVER
WAY OVER OPEN WATER. ALSO ... THE SURF WILL BECOME IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS EXTENSIVE OR SEVER AS
QUITE HEAVY AND COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE THIS MORNINGS.
AWARD THAT THE SURF ALONG THE COASTAL WILL BE
QUITE ROUGH FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH THE STORM NO MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION
INTO TUESDAY. THE SWELL GENERATED FROM HURRICANE AND WEAKENING AT THAT ... OUR ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES
GRACE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WILL CONTINUE T DOWNWARD TREND TO MORE
SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ON MANY EAST-FACING ACCEPTABLE LEVELS BY TONIGHT.
BEACHES BEGINNING LATE TODAY AN TONIGHT. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO BE AWARE OF THIS AND TAKE ALL THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 AM THIS
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES. BE ESPECIALLY MORNING
CAREFUL AT AND NEAR INLETS. STALKER

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER EARLY THIS WEEK >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
AS COMPARED TO LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE 30S
AND LOW 40S TONIGHT AND RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S TUESDAY. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR BY
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA GRADUALLY MOVES OVER US AND THEN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 AM
PORIER

C-6

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NJ
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK 428 PM EST OCT 30 1991
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY FROM
345 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991 MANASQUAN INLET SOUTH TO CAPE MAY INCLUDING THE
BACK BAYS...
... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WITH SEVERE BEACH EROSION...
TONIGHT FOR WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO MONTAUK ... GALE WARNING IN EFFECT...
POINT MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR.. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL FOR SEVERE TIDAL
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER INCLUDING LONG ISLAND FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
SOUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE
... GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR NEW OCEAN FRONT AT 144 AM AND 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER IN THE
YORK HARBOR BACK BAYS.
... HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FOR SUFFOLK COUNTRY.. TIDES AT 3 PM EST WERE RUNNING AROUND 4 1/2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND WERE
AN INTENSE STORM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC ABOUT 450 ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE SOME OF THE BACK BAYS. THESE DEPARTURES ARE
MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SO FLOODING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE STORM WILL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
MAINTAIN A STRONG FETCH THAT WILL DRIVE TIDES UP TO OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ANTICIPATING HIGH
5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TIDE ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT TO REACH AROUND 8 1/2
TONIGHT. FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AROUND 9 FEET IN
SOME BACK SAYS 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING
ALONG MANY COASTAL SECTIONS. SINCE I P.M. THE COSTAL RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL TO MONITOR THE FLOODING SITUATION. FLOODING
REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING CAUSING THE NEED OF ALREADY HAS CLOSED SECTIONS OF THE WHITE AND
EVACUATION FROM AREAS THAT INCLUDE MONTAUK ... FIRE BLACK HORSE PIKES AND THESE ROADS MAY REMAIN
ISLAND AND CONEY ISLAND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF CLOSED FOR A GOOD BALANCE OF THE EVENING. OTHER
LONG ISLAND. WE HAVE ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS OF BARRIER ISLAND ROADS ARE CURRENTLY IMPASSABLE
HIGHWAY FLOODING AND BASEMENT FLOODING ALONG ALONG MANY COASTAL COMMUNITIES. ATLANTIC CITY HAS
AREAS OF SOUTH LONG ISLAND. SPECIFICALLY-THE OPENED UP SHELTERS IN THE EVENT THAT EVACUATION
POLICE HAVE REPORTED ALL LANE$ CLOSED SOUTH OF MAY BE NECESSARY IN PARTS OF THE CITY.
MERRICK ROAD OF MEADOWBROOK STATE PARKWAY AND
UNDER BAY DRIVE ON WANTAGH STATE PARKWAY. PLEASE FOR SURFERS WHO DARE TO VENTURE OUT AND RIDE THE
USE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DURING THIS EVENING S RUSH SURF ... BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL AND STAY ALERT. RIP
HOUR. LISTEN TO THE RADIO FOR ALTERNATE TRAVEL CURRENTS ARE QUITE STRONG ... ALONG WITH DANGEROUS
ROUTES. DON'T BE FOOLED BY THIS AFTERNOONS BLUE UNDERTOW.,
SKIES.
THE REASON FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS AN
TIDES WILL BE THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 450 MILES EAST
2PM AND 5PM WITH SECONDARY HIGH TIDES AGAIN LATE OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
TONIGHT. AT 2:45 PM. AREA TIDES ARE AVERAGING 2 TO 4 MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CONTINUED
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT SANDY HOOK.NEW NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CAUSING ONGOING BEACH
JERSEY..WILLETS POINT AND THE BATTERY NEW YORK,. EROSION AND ROUGH SURF.
WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE PEAKING LATER TONIGHT.. EXTENSIVE COASTAL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
THROUGH TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. WINDS RE FORECAST TO WHICH CAN BE HEARS ON THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND FLOODING WILL DECREASE. WEATHER SERVICE ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON 162.40 MHZ.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION WILL ALSO OCCUR.
THE TIDE WILL REACH ITS CLOSETS POINT TO THE REGION THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN ATLANTIC
BY LATE TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH WELL CITY WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND KEEP
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JER,5EY COA@iT. YOU INFORMED WITH FURTHER STATEMENTS
WS/Sio
STAY TUNED. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE 15,5VED BY 5
A.M. OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CONTE

C-7

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT A COMBINAT10N OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK HURRICANE GRACE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL KEEP A
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND CONTINUED FLOW OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG COASTAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY NEW JERSEY FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
350 P, EST THU OCT 31 1991
TIDES AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON WERE RUNNING NEAR 1 1/2
... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WITH CONTINUED GALE FORCE WINDS INTO
EVENING FROM WATCH HILL R140DE ISLAND TO MONTAUK POINT TO TUESDAY TIDES WILL BECOME 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
MANASQAUAN INLET NEW JERSEY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND THEREFORE TIDE HEIGHTS OF NEAR 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW
SOUND ... NEW YORK HARBOR..AND THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER... (MLW) ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND 7 1/2 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MLW
IN SOME BACK BAYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THE MISCHIEF NIGHT AND HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 WAS THE TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 1146 AM ALONG THE OCEAN
MOST DAMAGING COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE TRI-STATE ARE FRONT AND 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER IN THE BACK BAYS.
IN A LONG TIME ... PROBABLY 20 YEARS OF MORE. THE POWERFUL
STORM WHICH INTENSIFIES WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN CONVERSING MEAN LOW WATER TO
MOVED IN AN UNUSUAL WESTWARD MOTION AND NEARED THE MEAN SEA LEVEL JUST SUBTRACT 2 FEET FROM THE ABOVE
COAST WITH IT COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WEDNESDAY. VALUES.
THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THREW A GREAT DEAL OF
WEATHER UP ONTO THE COASTAL ZONE. TIDES WERE 5 TO 7 FEET AT 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER ACCESS ROAD FROM THE
ABOVE NORMAL ... LIKELY MORE IN SOME CASES ... DURING MAINLAND TO THE BARRIER ISLAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ROUGH AREAS AND STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
MANY HOUSES WERE DESTROYED ON LONG ISLAND'S OCEAN SIDE. ALSO CAUSE MODERATE AND POSSIBLE SEVERE BEACH EROSION
BEACH EROSION WAS CONSIDERABLE. THE NEW JERSEY SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALSO RECEIVED A GREAT DEAL OF DAMAGE. CUTS IN THE BEACH
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WERE COMMON. PERSONS PLANNING ON COMMUNITY TO OR FROM THE BARRIER
ISLAND ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION
HIGH TIDE WAS BEING EXPERIENCED IN MANY PLACES AROUND BY LISTENING TO NOaA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA AT MID AND LATE STATIONS FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS ON THE FLOODING. THE
AFTERNOON ... AND SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE HIGH TIDE INTO THE NEXT STATEMENT OR WARNING.JF NEEDED WILL BE ISSUED
EARLY EVENING. AT 3PM THE 11DE WAS 3 3/4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT.
AT SANDY HOOK... 2 1 /2 FEET AT THE BATTERY ... AND 1 FOOT ABOVE KRIEGER
NORMAL AT WILLETS POINT. AS YOU CAN SEE..THE TIDES HAVE >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. MORE COSTAL FLOODING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
EVENING ... BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NY
SEVERE FLOODING. HIGH TIDES WILL BE 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 1240 PM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
NORMAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
... MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
WATER SHOULD SLOWLY RECEDE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL THIS AFTERNOON IN BACK BAY AREAS.
CONTINUE TO DIMISH AS THE STORM SLOWLY WEAKENS.
...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WITH BEACH EROSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A CHANGE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST AS THE AT 1150 AM THIS MORNING THE TIDE RAN ALMOST 2 1/2 FEET (2.4)
STORM REMAINS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR AREA..BUT THE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT. THIS CAUSED THE
CHANGE WILL DECREASES AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY TO THE TIDES TO REACH 7.2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER. SOME
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPF30ACH FLOODING HAS OCCURRED.
THE TRI-STATE AREA BY SATURDAY-BRINGING WITH IT MOE CLOUDS
AND ANOTHER CHANGE OF SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM AT THIS TIME IS THE BACK BAYS WHERE
FLOODING BEGINS 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER OR BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PM. AT THIS TIME WERE ARE EXPECTING TIDES TO REACH 7 112
NEXT FEW DAYS. FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOME
BACK BAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME ROAD TO EIGHT HAVE SOME
ONE THING WERE ARE GRATEFUL FOR IS THAT THE LOSS OF LIFE EASTERN ON THEM OR EVEN BE CLOSED, ATLANTIC CITY
HAS BEEN KEPT TO A MINIMUM..DUE IN PART TO COOPERATION EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 14AS MADE A REQUEST THAT ALL
FROM PEOPLE WHO AGREED TO BE EVACUATED AS WELL AS THE MOTORISTS USE THE ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY INSTEAD OF THE
WARNING THAT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED THIS MAJOR STORM WHITEHORSE OR BLACK HORSE PIKES UNTIL 3 30 THIS AFTERNOON.
WHICH WILL LIKELY IRE A BENCHMARK FOR MANY YEARS TO COME.
CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM, THIS BEACH EROSION.
EVENING..OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT AND AS DETAILS
BECOME AVAILABLE. PERSONS ALONG BACK BAY AREAS AND THOSE TRAVELING INTO OR
OUR OF THE BARRIER ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT KRIERGER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NJ
190 PM EDT MON OCT 29 1991 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

... MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM
MANAQUAN TO CAPE MAY ESPECIALLY IN BACK BAY AREAS...
..GALE WARNINGS ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY AND BEACH EROSION
ALONG COAST...

C-8

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WISCONSIN AVENUE 15 6 Fr.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NJ
455 AM EST THU OCT 3 1991 LOW LYING AREAS ALL ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR FLOODING ... THIS INCLUDES AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY FAIRFAX COUNTY SUCH AS OLDTOWN ALEXANDRIA AND MT. VERNON.
COAST FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO CAPE MAY INCLUDING THE BACK ALSO THE LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GEORGETOWN WATERFRONT
BAYS AREA IN WASHINGTON D.C. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF
... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WITH BEACH EROSION... FLOODING ON THE BRIDGE LEADING TO COBBISLAND IN CHARLES
... GALE WARNING... COUNTY MARYLAND.

A COSTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN THE TIDE WILL START TO RECEDE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THE
NEW JERSEY COASTAL AND THE BACK BAYS FOR EXTREME TIDAL NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 6
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FT CRITICAL FLOOD STAGE.
HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT THE VENTNOR CITY FISHING PIER AT 203 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AND i TO 2 HOURS LATER IN THE BACK BAYS. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF CHAIN
BRIDGE SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY ALERT FOR RISING WATER THROUGH
TIDES AT 4 AM EST THIS MORNING WERE RUNNING 5 TO 5 1/2 FEET THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEASURERS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND ESTIMATED TO BE PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT HAS SUFFERED WATER DAMAGE FROM
ABOUR A FOOT HIGHER IN THE BACK BAYS. AT 144 AM THIS MORNING PROPER FLOODING.
HIGH TIDE CRESTED A 9 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER. THIS WAS KANE/SCHWERDT
THE 2ND ALL-TIME HIGH TIDE EVER ... PASSING SUCH MARKS AS THE 8.7
FOOT READING DURING THE NOVEMBER STORM OF 1950 AND >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
OVERTAKING THE 8.9 FEET OF WATER ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT
DURING THE MARCH STORM OF 1962. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON DE
THINGS GET WORSE... 1133 AM EST THU OCT 31 1991

HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE EVEN HIGHER THAN WHAT ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF DELAWARE
TOOK PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. 9 TO 9 1/2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW TODAY...
WATER WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OCEAN ... HEAVY SURF FOR DELAWARE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
FRONT. THE ALL-TIME HIGH TIDE RECORD OF 9.3 FEET OCCURRED ... BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF DELAWARE TODAY
DURING THE HURRICANE OF 1944. AND TONIGHT...

RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR BACK AN INTENSE STORM ABOUT 175 MILES EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND
BAYS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION VIRGINIA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
VERY CLOSELY. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOOD WATER CAUSING STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
RISE. MOTORISTS NEAR FLOOD PRONE BACK BAYS SHOULD MOVE COAST ... THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY GRADUALLY DIMISHING
THEIR VEHICLES TO HIGHER GROUND OR FARTHER INLAND. IN YOUR TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOSING THEIR GRIP ON THE COAST LATER
MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE ... LEAVE YOURSELF EXTRA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TIME TO REACH YOUR SEMINATION SAFELY. SOUTHEAST THEN EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.
THE REASON FOR THIS HISTORY MAKING EVENT IS A DANGEROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 240 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY DUNES ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST ARE REPORTED IN BAD SHAPE
NEW JERSEY. THIS PERSISTENT WAVE MAKING MACHINE WILL ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION THIS
CONTINUE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD US BRINGING ITS MORNING. AS HIGH TIDES OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON SUBSTANTIAL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS. BEACH EROSION AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WILL KIELY
OCCUR.
BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE ITS PROBLEMS ALONG THE
SHORE. ADDING INSULT TO INJURY ... THE ROUGH SURF AND STRONG HIGH TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION NOW TAKING INDIAN RIVER 324 PM EST ... OCEAN CITY 205 PM ... AND BREAKWATER
PLACE. HARBOR DE 314 PM TIDES HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
NOT ONLY IS THE BEACH ERODING AWAY
THE FLOODING HAS AFFECTED BOTH THE OCEAN FRONT AREAS AND
REPORTS OF THE BOARDWALK COMING APART IN THE ATLANTIC CITY THE TIDAL INFLUENCED STREAMS AND BAYS ... SOME OF THE BACK
INLET AREA BETWEEN PACIFIC AND ORIENTAL AVENUES WERE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD UNTIL THE STRONG MOVES WELL
RECEIVED THIS MORNING. AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE WATER HAS A CHANCE TO RECEDE,

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVING IN ATLANTIC CITY WILL CONTINUE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40
TO MONITOR THIS FLOODING SITUATION AND KEEP YOU INFORMED MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ... DIMISHING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH FURTHER STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT.
CHIELLINI
THIS STORM HAS HAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;> ALONG THE COAST OF DELAWARE..FLOODING OF BOTH THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AND THE BAYS ALONG WITH ANY TIDAL INFLUENCED STEAMS
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATEST PROBLEMS OCCURRING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC AROUND THE TIMED OF HIGH TIDES. HEAVY SURF AND SIGNIFICANT
1215 AM EST FRI NOV 1 1991 BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

... FLOODING AT THE TIME FOR HIGH TIDE WAS OCCURRING ON THE THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM EST THIS
POTOMAC RIVER EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING... AFTERNOON.
CKD
HIGH TIDE AT WISCONSIN AVENUE IS AT 254 AM EST. THE WATER
CONTINUED TO RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL BE BETWEEN 6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
AND 6.5 FT ABOUT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. FLOOD STAGE AT

C-9

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEAT14ER RADIO FOR UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORFOLK VA INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS COASTAL FOOD
1000 PM EDT MON OCT 28 1991 SITUATION,. BE ALERT TO INFORMATION FROM LOCAL
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES SHOULD EVACUATION BE DEEMED
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NECESSARY.
ATLANTIC COAST OF VIRGINIA...
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY
THE COM13INATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDE THAT MORNING TO KEEP YOU UP TO DATE ON THIS SITUATION.
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SMITH/BELVILLE/GUSTIN
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND HURRICANE GRACE
WLL OUR OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A STRONG ONSHORE >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
FLOW FOR COASTAL VIRGINIA. THIS IS
POTENTIALLY A LONG LASTING COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION. THIS COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT..UPDATED
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANCE ONLY SLOWLY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORFOLK VA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 530 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 1991

COASTAL FLOODING HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED BUT CONDITION ARE ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE
FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT ATLANTIC COAST...
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE TIDE CYCLE WILL PRODUCE,THE HIGHEST ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE MOUTH OF
TIDES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR TUESDAY AND THE BAY...
WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR BEACH ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...
EROSION AND MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND MOUTH OF THE
SAY...
TIDES AT SEWELL POINT ARE 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THE EARLY MORNING WEATHER MAP ... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OVER EASTERN CANADA IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
THOMAS ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG OCEAN STORM IS DEVELOPING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ... AND HURRICANE GRACE IS POSITIONED
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> NEAR BERMUDA. THE CIRCULATIONS AROUND THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING NORTHEAST WINDS AT GALE FORCE AND
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HEAVY SEAS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INT HE LOWER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON, DC CHESAPEAKE BAY.
910 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ... HURRICANE GRACE WILL
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LARGE OCEAN STORM OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO AND INCLUDING EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS LARGE STORM WILL BECOME
VIRGINIA BEACH... STATIONARY AND COMBINE WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHWARD TO MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GALE FORCE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA.
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND HURRICANE GRACE IN THE ATLANTIC THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG-LASTING PERIOD OF HEAVY
WEST OF BERMUDA IS CAUSING NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO GALE SURF ... BEACH EROSION AND INCREASINGLY HIGH WATER LEVELS.
FORCE AND HEAVY SEAS ALONG PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET ARE BEING FELT ON PORTIONS TIDES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
OF THE VIRGINIA COAST ... ANDTIDES EVEN AT LOW WATER ARE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
STARTING TO RUN A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL. MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF
THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
COASTAL FLOODING HAS NT YET DEVELOPED. HOWEVER DURING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS
CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING TO MOST VULNERABLE INCLUDE WILLOUGHBY SPIT..OCEAN
OCCUR WITHIN ABOUT 1214OURS ... AS T14E STRONG HIGH WILL VIEW ... CHESAPEAKE BEACH ... BUCKROE AND GRANDVIEW BEACHES
REMAIN STATIONARY ... AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN HAMPTON ... AND THE SANDBRIDGE AREA OF VIRGINIA BEACH.
OFFSHORE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND TIME MID ATLANTIC COAST
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCAL TIDAL INFORMATION

BY MID MORNING TUESDAY ... THE WEATHER SERVICE EXPECTS LOW HIGH LOW HIGH
MINOR FLOODING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DELAWARE AND SEWELLS POINT 7:08AM 1:36PM 9:11 PM 3:12AM WED
MARYLAND COASTS..AND MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE VA BEACH OCEANFRONT 5:38AM 1206PM 7:41 PM 1:42AM WED
VIRGINIA COAST. IN ADDITION..THE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE ALL ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE HENOPEN TO
VIRGINIA BEACH. RESIDENTS IN THE VULNERABLE AREAS SHOULD CONSULT LOCAL
AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING YOUR
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A LONG-LASTING COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION. PARTICULAR LOCATION AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND
HURRICANE GRACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF BERMUDA PROPERTY. BE ALERT TO INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL
TUESDAY AND WEAKEN...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY GOVERNMENT AGENCIES SHOULD EVACUATION BE DEEMED
AN INTENSE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN NECESSARY.
BERMUDA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE
STATIONARY HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WIL COMBINE WITH THE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LOW TO MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ... FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION. THE NEXT COASTAL FLOOD
36 HOURS. ASA RESULT ... CONTINUED HEAVY SURF AND STRONG STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HIGH WATER LEVELS WALSTON
AS WELL AS POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION ... FOR AS LONG AS THIS
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTEN LASTS. >>>>>>>>>>>>>@->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

C-10

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORFOLK VA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALIEGH/DURHAM
515 PM EST THU OCT 31 1991 1045 PM EST SUN 27 1991

... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST ... ... A COSTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FROM SOUTH OF VIRGINIA
... MODERATE BEACH EROSION TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY... BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST AND THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY... PORTION OF THE. NORTH CAROLINA COAST ALREADY FEELING THE
FRINGE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GRACE TONIGHT ... AS LARGE
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF WAVES GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE THREATENED THE OUTER
NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY AND IS BANKS WITH BEACH EROSION.
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. ON FRIDAY ... THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA AT 10:30PM ... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED
SCOTIA. ABOUT 425 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE
STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH ... BUT IS
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM ON COASTAL VIRGINIA HAVE BEEN WAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
LARGELY FELT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE A COMBINATION OF REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
HIGH TIDES AND VERY HEAVY SURF HAVE PRODUCED SOME
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE SANDBRIDGE AREA OF VIRGINIA SIX FOOT BREAKERS WERE REPORTED AT THE PIER AT DUCK 10
BEACH. THE HOMES THAT SUFFERED THE MOST DAMAGE WHERE PM ... AND SEAS HAD INCREASED TO 13 FT AT THE DATA 13UOY ... SOME
THOSE NOT PROTECTED BY A BULKHEAD. THE DAMAGE CONSISTED 130 MILES EAST OF CAP HATTERAS.
MOSTLY OF SEPTIC SYSTEMS BEING WASHED OUT AND
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO WOOD STRUCTED ATTACHED TO THE WAVES WERE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN HEIGHT
GROUND LEVEL PILINGS. SANDFIDLER ROAD AND OVERWASHING IN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ON MONDAY ... AND TO CONTINUE INTO
SEVERAL PLACED DURING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND COMPOUNDING THIS PROBLEM IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER..THOSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE SANDBRIDGE SECTION OF PUSHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MONDAY AND
VIRGINIA BEACH WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
MODERATE TO HEAVY BEACH EROSION TONIGHT MAINLY DURING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE AND THE STRONG HIGH
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHEAST
TO NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AT 2:58AM AT VIRGINIA BEACH AND
4:28 AM AT SEWELLS POINT. THE TIDE AT NORTH LOCATIONS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
SHOULD CREST BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER TO 40 MPH FROM SOUTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT BY
LOW WATER WHICH WILL BE ABOUT A HALF FOOT LOWER THAN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY EVENING. SEAS SHOULD
WAS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON AT THIGH TIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET IN THESE AREAS.
PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AREAS ALONG TIDAL ESTUARIES. COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE JUST BEFORE NOON MONDAY. THE AREAS THAT
SUBSIDING WAVES AND TIDES ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY COULD BE MOST AFFECTED WILL BE FROM CAP HATTERAS
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE LATE FRIDAY NORTHWARD ... ESPECIALLY IN THE NAGS HEAD AND KILL DEVIL HILLS
AFTERNOON. REGION.

RESIDENCE WHO EXPERIENCE TIDAL FLOODING OR WHO LIVE GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE INCREASING WINDS
ALONG THE BEACHES CAN LEARN A VALUABLE LESSON FRO THIS FROM SOUTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT. SMALL
STORM. THE MAXIMUM TIDE AT SEWELLS POINT REACHED 5.6 FEET CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF CAPE
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LOOKOUT TO LITTLE RIVE INLET. HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEVEL OCCURS ON AVERAGE ABOUT TWO IN EFFECT ALONGTHE ENTIRE COAST.
TIMES A YEAR AND RESULTS IN MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING. OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS WERE AVERAGE A STORM REMEMBER ... A COASTAL FLOOR WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
SURGE OF 6.1 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ONCE EVERY ARE FAVORABLE FRO COASTAL FLOODING. YOU SHOULD BE
THREE YEARS AND 8.1 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF FLOODING OCCURS
ONCE EVERY 11 YEARS. EITHER OF THESE STORM SURGES IS OR IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
RELATIVELY COMMON AND WOULD PRODUCE FAR MORE FLOODING
AND DAMAGE THAN THE STORM WE HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED. LISTING TO LOCAL RADIO..TV..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
IF THIS STORM AFFECTED YOUR PROPERTY ... REMEMBER HOW HIGH CDM
THE WATER CAME SO THAT YOU WILL KNOW WHAT TO DO IF A
STORM SURGE OF 6 ... 7 OR EVEN 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WATER IS FORECAST WITH A FUTURE STORM. ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NEEDED. RITTER

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SOUTH OF BUXTON ... FLOODING WILL BE MORE LIKELY FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NG SOUTHSIDE ALTHOUGH ROUGH SEAS MAY BREAK OVER THE DUNS
1140 AM EST THU OCT 31 1991 BETWEEN FRISCO AND HATTERAS. OCRACOKE ISLAND WILL ALSO BE
VULNERABLE TO SOUTHSIDE FLOODING IN THE VILLAGE..AND A
... EVACUATION OF BEAC)i AREA ORDERED BY DARE COUNTY COMBINATION OF SOUNDSIDE AND OCEAN FLOODING ON THE NORTH
CONTROL GROUP... END OF THE ISLAND.

THE TOWNS OF NAGS HEAD AND KILL DEVIL HILLS ARE EVACUATING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR CONTINUED TO
IMMEDIATELY ... PEOPLE WHO LIKE ON THE NAGS HEAD OCEANFRONT BUFFET THE AREA. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME IN SPEED
AND THE WEST SIDE OF OLD OREGON INLET ROAD SOUTH OF WHALE- DURING THE NIGHT. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE
BONE JUNCTION. FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS.

KILL DEVIL HILLS IS EVACUATING PEOPLE LIVING ON THE THE WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 12 FEET.. MAINLY'
OCEANFRONT BETWEEN THE HIGHWAYS OF THE BY-PASS. NORTH OF CAP HATTERAS..WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY
TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS A DIAMOND SHOALS WERE AT 13 FEET. A
ALL THOSE EVACUATING..WHO NEED SHELTER..ARE INSTRUCTED TO BOUY 130 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS
GO TO THE MANTEO HIGH SCHOOL. WE ARE INSTRUCTING PEOPLE OF 20 FEET AT 7PM EST. THESE HIGHER WAVES WIL BE WORKING
TO EVACUATE FOR THEIR OWN SAFETY..SAND NAGS HEAD MAJOR THEIR WAY ONSHORE.
DON DRYAN.
COASTAL RESIDENTS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT ... 13UT ESPECIALLY
NAGS HEAD AND KILL DEVIL HILLS POLICE AND FIRE DEPARTMENTS NORTH OF CAP HATTERAS ... SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
ARE GOING HOUSE TO HOUSE..WHERE POSSIBLE.-TO ISSUE THE DEVELOPMENTS ... LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS..AND BE
INSTRUCTIONS. PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIVES AND
PROPERTY.
THE ROAD IS STILL PASSABLE ... BUT AS WE WAIT MUCH LONER IT WILL B TERRI=[
BE..BRYAN SAID. WE ALREADY ARE EXPERIENCING OCEAN
OVERWASH AND WERE THREE HOUR SWAY FROM HIGH TIDE. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

QUITE A FEW PEOPLE EVACUATED ON THEIR OWN LAST NIGHT. THIS COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
HIGH TIDE ID EXPECTED TO BE WORSE THAN THAT. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NC
100 AM EST WED OCT 30 1991
THOSE GOING TO THE SHELTER SHOULD TAKE BLANKETS..PILLOWS
TOILETRY ITEMS..MEDIATION..AND OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS. ... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
END/AP CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO NC-VA BORDER...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ... GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ... A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NC COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
935 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991
ONCE AGAIN ... HIGH TIDE HAS BROUGHT COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. MOST AREAS
CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO VIRGINIA REPORTED MINOR FLOODING AND OVERWASH ALONG PORTIONS OF
BORDER... THE BEACH ROAD AND OVER ROUTE 12.
... GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING T14E ALBEMARLE..CURRITUCK...AND VISITORS TO THE AREA ... NOT FAMILIAR WITH COASTAL FLOODING
PAMLICO SOUNDS... SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE WATER RECEDES ... SAND AND
... A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA DEBRIS WILL COVER THE ROADWAYS. ALSO REMEMBER NOT TO
COAST... ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THE ROADWAY MAY
BE UNDERMINED. ALSO ... SALT WATER IS HIGHLY CORROSIVE TO
THE COMBINED EFFECT FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AUTOMOBILES.
BUILDING OVER THE AREA ... AND THE DISTANT HURRICANE GRACE
ABOUT 500 MILES OFFSHORE ... HAVE CAUSED A STEADY INCREASE IN DARE COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS REPORTED OVERWASH WAS
BOTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. OCCURRING IN KITTY HAWK AT THE BATH HOUSE AT MILE POST
NUMBER 3 AND IN KILL DEVIL HILLS AT THE SEA RANCH MOTEL AT
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT OCEAN FLOODING IS MILE POST NUMBER EIGHT.
IMMINENT FORTHE WARNED AREA. PEOPLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
BEACH FRONT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR OCEAN FLOODING..AND BE TIDES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE RUNNING ABOUT THE FOOT
PREPARED TO WATER COMING UNDER THE MORE EXPOSED HORSE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET MOST
ON THE BEACHFRONT. MORE EXPOSED SECTION OF THE BEACH AREAS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. REACH EROSION CONTINUED
ROADS WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO OVERWASH CONDITIONS..AND OVER THE AREA.,MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
COMBINED WITH SAND AND FLOOD DEBRIS. MAY BECOME
IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 PM CONTINUE TO BUFFET
THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THE MORE VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE COAST ... THE NORTHERN THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES OF CURRITUCK COUNTY INCLUDING
COROLLA..CORAVA..AND THE PENNY HILL AREA. IN DARE FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 3AM ... BUT WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
COUNTRY ... THE BEACH ROAD BETWEEN KILL DEVIL HILLS AND NAGS TIDE AROUND I PM 3 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HEAD HAS SEVERAL THREATENED AREAS. SOUTH NAGS HAS A
HISTORY OF VULNERABILITY DURING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, THE NEXT STATEMENT WLL BE ISSUED NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

ON HATTERAS ISLAND ... UNPOPULATED PEA ISLAND HAS SEVERAL PEOPLE ON THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD STY TUNED TO NOAA
POINTS WHERE ROUTE 12 IS SUBJECT TO OVERWASH..JUST NORTH WEATHER RADIO..TV OR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS FOR POSSIBLE
OF THE VILLAGE OF RODANTHE AT THE SIGHT ON THE FORMER FURTHER UPDATES.
S-SURVES ... AND JUST NORTH OF THE VILLAGE OF BUXTON.

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COASTAL OCEAN STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NC
400 AM EST FRI NOV 01 1991

... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM VA-NC BORDER TO CAPE
LOOKOUT...
... A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD...

DARE COUNTY CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATE OF
EMERGENCY. ACCESS TO COASTAL DARE COUNTY AND
THE OUTER BANKS OF CURRITUCK COUNTY IS LIMITED TO
NLY THOSE WITH PROOF OF RESIDENCY. HOWEVER
HATTERAS ISLAND REMAINS CLOSED TO ALL TRAFFIC.

TIDE LEVELS DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE ARE
AROUND 2 AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL..THIS
COMPOUNDED WITH 8 FOOT WAVES BRAKING ALONG THE
COASTLINE..COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION CONTINUE TO PLAGUE TRAVEL AND PEOPLE
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

COASTAL FLOODING AND OCEAN OVERWASH HAVE
RESTRICTED TRAVEL ALONG MOST PLACES ALONG THE
OLD BEACH ROAD FROM KITTY HAWK TO NAGS HEAD. NO
OFFICIAL WORD TO HOW MANY COTTAGES HAVE BEEN
LOST TO THE SEA WITHIN THIS AREA BUT MANY HAVE
SUFFERED PARTIAL TO SEVERE DAMAGE.

HIGHWAY 12 ONTO HATTERAS ISLAND HAS NOW BEEN
CLOSED TO TRAFFIC FOR ALMOST 2 DAYS. DUNE BREAKS
ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND HAS ALLOWED THE OCEAN TO
SURGE OVER HIGHWAY 12 AND INTO SEVERAL VILLAGES
ALONG THE OUTERBANKS. SOME OF THE SPILLAGE HAS
CONTAINANTED SOME OF THE FRESH WATER WELLS IN THE
RODANTHE AREA..PROMOTING OFFICIALS TO PLACE
PORTABLE WATER TANKS AT HE SALVO FIR
DEPARTMENT ... SUN REALTY BUILDING IN WAVES..AND
EMILYS RESTAURANT IN ROADATHE.

FERRY SERVICE BETWEEN HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISLAND WILL RESUME AT 5 THIS MORNING. FERRY SERVICE
BETWEEN OCRACOKE ISLAND AND THE MAINLAND WILL BE
RUNNING ON SCHEDULE TODAY-CONTACT FERRY
SERVICES FRO RESERVATIONS.

SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON
HATTERAS ISLAND SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. SOME
LOCATION SHAVE BEEN WITHOUT POWER FOR OVER 5
HOURS ... MAINLY BECAUSE OF TRANSFORMERS EXPLODING
DUE TO SALT BUILDUP.

ALTHOUGH SEA HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
FORECASTED TO BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING ... TODAY
HIGH TIDE ... AROUND 3 PM .... MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
COSTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH. THIS IS IN PART TO
THE OW RESISTANCE OF HAUTE DUNE LINE LEFT BY THE
ONSLAUGHT OF THE ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

STAY TUNED FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS.
HOEHLER

U.S. G.P.O.:1992-313-153:60485 C-13

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