[Federal Register Volume 75, Number 40 (Tuesday, March 2, 2010)]
[Notices]
[Pages 9411-9414]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2010-4312]


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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

[FRL-9121-1]


Official Release of the MOVES2010 Motor Vehicle Emissions Model 
for Emissions Inventories in SIPs and Transportation Conformity

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Notice of availability.

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SUMMARY: EPA is approving and announcing the availability of the Motor 
Vehicle Emissions Simulator model (MOVES2010) for official use outside 
of California. MOVES2010 is the state-of-the-art upgrade to EPA's 
modeling tools for estimating emissions from cars, trucks, motorcycles, 
and buses, based on analysis of millions of emission test results and 
considerable advances in the Agency's understanding of vehicle 
emissions.
    Today's notice approves the use of MOVES2010 in official State 
implementation air quality plan (SIP) submissions to EPA and for 
certain transportation conformity analyses outside of California. This 
notice starts a two-year grace period before the MOVES2010 emission 
model is required to be used in new regional emissions analyses for 
transportation conformity determinations outside of California. EPA is 
not approving MOVES2010 for project-level transportation conformity 
hot-spot analyses at this time; the Agency will approve the model for 
such analyses in the near future in a separate Federal Register notice 
when guidance is finalized.
    EPA strongly encourages areas to use the interagency consultation 
process to examine how MOVES2010 will affect future transportation plan 
and transportation improvement program (TIP) conformity determinations 
so, if necessary, SIPs and motor vehicle emissions budgets can be 
revised with MOVES2010 or transportation plans and TIPs can be revised 
as appropriate prior to the end of the MOVES2010 conformity grace 
period. EPA also encourages State and local air agencies to consider 
how the release of MOVES2010 will affect analyses supporting SIP 
submissions under development.

DATES: EPA's approval of the MOVES2010 emissions model for SIPs and 
regional emissions analyses for transportation conformity is effective 
March 2, 2010. As discussed further below, today's approval also starts 
a two-year transportation conformity grace period which ends on March 
2, 2012, after which MOVES2010 is required to be used for new regional 
emissions analyses for transportation conformity.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For technical model questions 
regarding the official release or use of MOVES2010, please e-mail EPA 
at mobile@epa.gov or call (734) 214-4636. For questions about SIPs, 
contact Rudy Kapichak at Kapichak.Rudolph@epa.gov or (734) 214-4574. 
For transportation conformity questions, contact Meg Patulski at 
Patulski.Meg@epa.gov or (734) 214-4842.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The contents of this notice are as follows:

I. What Is MOVES2010?
II. SIP Policy for MOVES2010
III. Transportation Conformity Policy for MOVES2010
IV. Future Notice Approving MOVES2010 for Project-Level Conformity 
Hot-Spot Analyses

Availability of MOVES2010 and Support Materials

    Copies of the official version of the MOVES2010 model, along with 
user guides and supporting documentation, are available on EPA's MOVES 
Web site: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm.
    Guidance on how to apply MOVES2010 for SIPs and transportation 
conformity purposes, including ``Policy Guidance on the Use of 
MOVES2010 for State Implementation Plan Development, Transportation 
Conformity, and Other Purposes'' (EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009) and 
``Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory 
Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation 
Conformity'' (EPA-420-B-09-042, December 2009) can be found on the 
EPA's transportation conformity Web site at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/policy.htm.

[[Page 9412]]

    EPA will continue to update this Web site as other MOVES support 
materials and guidance are developed.
    Individuals who wish to receive EPA announcements related to the 
MOVES2010 model should subscribe to the EPA-MOBILENEWS e-mail 
listserver. To subscribe to the EPA-MOBILENEWS listserver, send a blank 
e-mail to EPA at join-EPA-MOBILENEWS@lists.epa.gov. Your e-mail address 
will then be added to the list of subscribers and a confirmation 
message will be sent to your e-mail address. Whenever a message is 
posted to the EPA-MOBILENEWS listserver by the listserver owner (the 
Assessment and Standards Division of EPA's Office of Transportation and 
Air Quality), a copy of that message will be sent to every person who 
has subscribed. You can remove yourself from the list by sending a 
blank e-mail to EPA at leave-EPA-MOBILENEWS@lists.epa.gov. This e-mail 
must be sent from the same e-mail address that you used to subscribe. 
For more information about the EPA-MOBILENEWS listserver, visit EPA's 
Web site at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/mobilelist.htm.

I. What Is MOVES2010?

    MOVES2010 is the state-of-the-art upgrade to EPA's modeling tools 
for estimating emissions from highway vehicles, based on analysis of 
millions of emission test results and considerable advances in the 
Agency's understanding of vehicle emissions. Today's notice approves 
MOVES2010 as EPA's official motor vehicle emissions factor model for 
estimating volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides 
(NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), direct particulate matter 
(PM10 and PM2.5) and other precursors from cars, 
trucks, buses, and motorcycles by State and local agencies for SIP 
purposes and regional emissions analyses for transportation conformity 
outside of California. For these purposes, MOVES2010 replaces the 
previous emissions model, MOBILE6.2, which was released in 2004 (69 FR 
28830).\1\
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    \1\ Today's notice does not affect emissions model requirements 
within California, where the EMFAC2007 emissions model is currently 
approved for SIP purposes and for regional emissions analyses and CO 
hot-spot analyses for transportation conformity (73 FR 3464).
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    MOVES2010 improves upon MOBILE6.2 in several key respects. For 
example, MOVES2010 is based on a review of the vast amount of in-use 
vehicle data collected and analyzed since the release of MOBILE6.2, 
including millions of emissions measurements from light-duty vehicles. 
Analysis of this data has enhanced EPA's understanding of how on-road 
mobile sources contribute to emissions inventories, and has also 
improved the agency's understanding of the relative effectiveness of 
various control strategies. MOVES2010 has a database-centered design 
that allows users much greater flexibility in organizing input and 
output data. This structure also allows EPA to update emissions data 
incorporated in MOVES2010 more easily.
    MOVES2010 includes the capability to estimate vehicle exhaust and 
evaporative emissions as well as brake wear and tire wear emissions for 
criteria pollutants and precursors. However, MOVES2010 does not include 
the capability to estimate emissions of re-entrained road dust. To 
estimate emissions from re-entrained road dust, practitioners should 
continue to use the latest approved methodologies.\2\
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    \2\ See EPA's notice of availability published in the Federal 
Register on May 19, 2004, 69 FR 28830-28832. Also see EPA's 
memoranda: ``Policy Guidance on the Use of the November 1, 2006, 
Updated to AP-42 for Re-entrained Road Dust for SIP Development and 
Transportation Conformity,'' August 2, 2007; and ``Policy Guidance 
on the Use of MOBILE6.2 and the December 2003 AP-42 Method for Re-
entrained Road Dust for SIP Development and Transportation 
Conformity,'' February 24, 2004. These documents are available on 
EPA's Web site at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/policy.htm.
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II. SIP Policy for MOVES2010

    EPA has articulated its policy regarding the use of MOVES2010 in 
SIP development in its ``Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for 
State Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and 
Other Purposes'' (EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009). Today's notice 
highlights certain aspects of the guidance, but State and local 
governments should refer to the guidance for more detailed information 
on how and when to use MOVES2010 in reasonable further progress SIPs, 
attainment demonstrations, maintenance plans, inventory updates, and 
other SIP submission requirements.
    Although MOVES2010 should be used in SIP development as 
expeditiously as possible, EPA also recognizes the time and effort that 
States have already undertaken in SIP development using MOBILE6.2. SIPs 
that EPA has already approved are not required to be revised solely 
based on existence of the new model. States that have already submitted 
SIPs or will submit SIPs shortly after EPA's approval of MOVES2010 are 
not required to revise these SIPs simply because a new motor vehicle 
emissions model is now available. States can choose to use MOVES2010 in 
these SIPs, for example, if it is determined that it is appropriate to 
update motor vehicle emissions budgets (``budgets'') with the MOVES2010 
model for future conformity determinations. However, EPA does not 
believe that a State's use of MOBILE6.2 should be an obstacle to EPA 
approval for SIPs that have been or will soon be submitted, assuming 
that such SIPs are otherwise approvable and significant SIP work has 
already occurred (e.g., attainment modeling for an attainment SIP has 
already been completed with MOBILE6.2). It would be unreasonable in 
such cases to require States to revise these SIPs with MOVES2010 since 
significant work has already occurred, and EPA intends to act on these 
SIPs in a timely manner.
    States should use MOVES2010 where SIP development is in its initial 
stages or hasn't progressed far enough along that switching to 
MOVES2010 would create a significantly adverse impact on State 
resources. For example, States (except California) that will be 
developing on-road mobile source inventories for 2006 24-hour 
PM2.5 NAAQS SIPs should base those inventories on MOVES2010. 
EPA designated nonattainment areas for this NAAQS on November 13, 2009 
(74 FR 58688), which should give State and local agencies time to 
incorporate MOVES2010 into SIP submissions for this NAAQS. MOVES2010 
should be incorporated into these and other SIPs, as appropriate, since 
MOVES2010 emissions estimates are based on the best information 
currently available, as required by Clean Air Act section 172(c)(3) and 
40 CFR 51.112(a)(1).

III. Transportation Conformity Policy for MOVES2010

    EPA is establishing a two-year grace period before MOVES2010 is 
required for new transportation plan and TIP conformity determinations 
and regional emissions analyses. This grace period begins today and 
ends March 2, 2012. The remainder of this section describes how the 
transportation conformity grace period was determined and summarizes 
how it will be implemented, including those circumstances when the 
grace period could be shorter than two years. However, for complete 
explanations of how MOVES2010 is to be implemented for transportation 
conformity, including details about using MOVES2010 during the grace 
period, refer to ``Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for State 
Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 
Purposes'' (EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009). EPA coordinated closely 
with the U.S.

[[Page 9413]]

Department of Transportation (DOT) in the establishment of the grace 
period.

A. Length of Conformity Grace Period

    Transportation conformity is a Clean Air Act requirement to ensure 
that Federally supported highway and transit activities are consistent 
with (``conform to'') the SIP. Conformity to a SIP means that a 
transportation activity will not cause or contribute to new air quality 
violations; worsen existing violations; or delay timely attainment of 
the national ambient air quality standards or any interim milestone. 
Transportation conformity applies in nonattainment and maintenance 
areas for transportation-related pollutants: ozone, carbon monoxide 
(CO), PM2.5, PM10, and nitrogen dioxide.
    The transportation conformity rule (40 CFR parts 51 and 93) 
requires that conformity determinations be based on the latest motor 
vehicle emissions model approved by EPA. Section 176(c)(1) of the Clean 
Air Act states that ``* * * [t]he determination of conformity shall be 
based on the most recent estimates of emissions, and such estimates 
shall be determined from the most recent population, employment, 
travel, and congestion estimates * * *.'' When EPA approves a new 
emissions model such as MOVES2010, a grace period is established before 
the model is required for conformity analyses. The conformity rule 
provides for a grace period for new emissions models of between three 
and 24 months (40 CFR 93.111(b)(1)).
    EPA articulated its intentions for establishing the length of a 
conformity grace period in the preamble to the 1993 transportation 
conformity rule (58 FR 62211):

    EPA and DOT will consider extending the grace period if the 
effects of the new emissions model are so significant that previous 
SIP demonstrations of what emission levels are consistent with 
attainment would be substantially affected. In such cases, States 
should have an opportunity to revise their SIPs before MPOs 
[metropolitan planning organizations] must use the model's new 
emissions factors.

In consultation with DOT, EPA must consider many factors when 
establishing a grace period for conformity determinations, including 
the degree of change in emissions models and the effects of the new 
model on the transportation planning process (40 CFR 93.111(b)(2)).
    Upon consideration of all of these factors, EPA is establishing a 
two-year grace period, which begins today and ends on March 2, 2012, 
before MOVES2010 is required to be used for regional transportation 
conformity purposes. During this grace period, areas should use the 
interagency consultation process to examine the impact of using 
MOVES2010 in their future transportation plan and TIP conformity 
determinations and regional emissions analyses.

B. Circumstances When Grace Period Will Be Shorter Than Two Years

    The grace period will be shorter than two years for a given 
pollutant if an area revises its SIP and budgets with MOVES2010, and 
such budgets become applicable for regional conformity purposes prior 
to the end of the two-year grace period. In this case, the new regional 
emissions analysis must use MOVES2010 if the conformity determination 
is based on a MOVES2010-based budget.
    Areas that are designated nonattainment or maintenance for multiple 
pollutants may rely on both MOVES2010 and MOBILE6.2 to determine 
conformity for different pollutants during the grace period. For 
example, if an area revises a previously submitted (but not approved) 
MOBILE6.2-based PM10 SIP with MOVES2010 and EPA finds these 
revised MOVES2010 budgets adequate for conformity, such budgets would 
apply for conformity on the effective date of the Federal Register 
notice announcing EPA's adequacy finding. In this example, if an area 
was in nonattainment for PM10 and ozone, the MOVES2010 grace 
period would end for PM10 once EPA found the new MOVES2010-
based SIP budgets adequate. However, MOBILE6.2 could continue to be 
used for ozone conformity determinations until the end of the MOVES2010 
grace period.\3\ EPA Regional Offices should be consulted for questions 
regarding such situations in multi-pollutant areas.
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    \3\ In this example, such an area would use MOVES2010 to develop 
a regional emissions analysis for comparison to the revised 
MOVES2010-based budgets (e.g., PM10 and NOx budgets). The 
regional emissions analysis for ozone could be based on MOBILE6.2 
for the VOC and NOx budgets in the ozone SIP for the remainder of 
the conformity grace period.
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    In addition, if an area revises a previously approved SIP using 
MOVES2010, the revised MOVES2010 budgets would be used for conformity 
purposes once EPA approves the MOVES2010 SIP revision, in most cases. 
In general, submitted SIPs cannot supersede approved budgets until they 
are approved. However, 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1) allows an approved budget to 
be replaced by an adequate budget if EPA's approval of the initial 
budgets specifies that the budgets being approved may be replaced in 
the future by new adequate budgets. This flexibility has been used in 
limited situations in the past, such as during the transition from 
MOBILE5 to MOBILE6. In such cases, the MOVES2010-based budgets would be 
used for conformity purposes once they have been found adequate, if 
requested by the State in its SIP submission and specified in EPA's SIP 
approval. States should consult with their EPA Regional Office to 
determine if this flexibility applies to their situation.

C. Use of MOVES2010 During the Grace Period

    During the conformity grace period, areas should use the 
interagency consultation process to examine how MOVES2010 will impact 
their future transportation plan and TIP conformity determinations and 
any regional emissions analyses. Areas should carefully consider 
whether the SIP and budgets should be revised with MOVES2010 or if 
transportation plans and TIPs should be revised before the end of the 
conformity grace period, since doing so may be necessary to ensure 
conformity in the future.
    Regional emissions analyses that are started during the grace 
period can use either MOBILE6.2 or MOVES2010. When the grace period 
ends on March 2, 2012, MOVES2010 will become the only approved motor 
vehicle emissions model for regional emissions analyses for 
transportation conformity in States other than California. In general, 
this means that all new transportation plan and TIP conformity 
determinations started after the end of the grace period must be based 
on MOVES2010, even if the SIP is based on MOBILE6.2.
    Finally, the conformity rule provides some flexibility for regional 
emissions analyses that are started before the end of the grace period. 
Analyses that begin before or during the grace period may continue to 
rely on MOBILE6.2. The interagency consultation process should be used 
if it is unclear if a MOBILE6.2-based analysis was begun before the end 
of the grace period. If you have questions about which model should be 
used in your conformity determination, you can also consult with your 
EPA Regional Office.

IV. Future Notice Approving MOVES2010 for Project-level Conformity Hot-
spot Analyses

    Today's notice does not approve MOVES2010 for use in transportation 
conformity hot-spot analyses in PM2.5, PM10, and 
CO nonattainment and

[[Page 9414]]

maintenance areas.\4\ EPA will approve MOVES2010 for these purposes, 
and establish a separate two-year conformity grace period, in a 
subsequent Federal Register notice. Details on how EPA intends to 
implement MOVES2010 for quantitative CO, PM2.5, and 
PM10 hot-spot analyses can be found in ``Policy Guidance on 
the Use of MOVES2010 for State Implementation Plan Development, 
Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes'' (EPA-420-B-09-042, 
December 2009).
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    \4\ In CO nonattainment and maintenance areas, a hot-spot 
analysis is required for all non-exempt projects, with quantitative 
hot-spot analyses being required for larger, congested intersections 
and other projects (40 CFR 93.123(a)(1)). In addition, the 
conformity rule requires that a quantitative PM10 or 
PM2.5 hot-spot analysis be completed for certain projects 
of local air quality concern once EPA releases modeling guidance and 
announces in the Federal Register that the PM10 and 
PM2.5 quantitative hot-spot analysis requirements are in 
effect (40 CFR 93.123(b)). In coordination with DOT, EPA is 
currently preparing guidance on how to conduct quantitative 
PM2.5 and PM10 hot-spot modeling to implement 
this requirement.

    Dated: February 24, 2010.
Margo Tsirigotis Oge,
Director, Office of Transportation and Air Quality.
[FR Doc. 2010-4312 Filed 3-1-10; 8:45 am]
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