[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 128 (Tuesday, July 5, 2016)]
[Notices]
[Pages 43671-43673]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2016-15807]
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OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National
Climate Assessment
ACTION: Notice of request for public comment.
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SUMMARY: With this notice, The U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) seeks public comment on the proposed content and scope of the
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) as indicated by the draft
outline presented here. A Request for Information in 2015 sought public
input on the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process more
generally (80 FR 26105, https://federalregister.gov/a/2015-10352). The
outline for NCA4 is informed by that previously received public input.
General topics on which public comment is requested, in addition to
the proposed outline, include: (1) Ways to make the assessment
information accessible and useful to multiple audiences; (2) the
specific types of detailed information at regional scales that would be
most useful; (3) suggestions for how to best describe risks and
impacts, as well as potential opportunities to reduce those risks and
impacts on sectors of the economy as well as natural and social
systems; (4) suggestions for new approaches to topics addressed in
previous assessments; and (5) suggestions regarding overarching themes
that NCA4 should consider addressing.
A call for author nominations and technical inputs may soon be
posted in one or more subsequent Federal Register Notices. A draft of
NCA4 will also be released for public comment prior to its final
release. Background information, additional details, and instructions
for submitting comments can be found at www.globalchange.gov/
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notices. For more information about the NCA and access to previous NCA
reports and activities, please see http://assessment.globalchange.gov.
Responses to the questions below can be entered via the Web site noted
above.
DATES: Comments will be accepted through July 29, 2016.
ADDRESSES: Comments from the public will be accepted electronically via
http://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Instructions for submitting
comments are on the Web site. Submitters may enter text or upload files
in response to this notice.
Instructions: Response to this Request for Comment is voluntary.
Respondents need not reply to all questions or topics; however, they
should clearly indicate the question or topic to which they are
responding. Responses may be used by the U.S. Government for program
planning on a non-attribution basis. OSTP therefore requests that no
business proprietary information or copyrighted information be
submitted in response to this Request for Comment. Please note that the
U.S. Government will not pay for response preparation, or for the use
of any information contained in the response.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Emily Therese Cloyd, (202) 223-6262,
[email protected], U.S. Global Change Research Program.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: USGCRP is mandated under the Global Change
Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to conduct a quadrennial NCA. Under its
current decadal strategic plan (http://go.usa.gov/3qGU4), USGCRP is
building sustained assessment capacity to support the Nation's ability
to understand, anticipate, and respond to risks and potential impacts
brought about by global environmental change, namely the human-caused
buildup of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere that is causing climate
change. The last NCA from 2014 (NCA3: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov)
and the process to develop it provide a foundation for subsequent
activities and reports.
Recent special assessments by the U.S. Government will be utilized
for NCA4, including: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in
the United States (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/); Climate
Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity.htm); and Effects of
Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States (http://www.fs.fed.us/science-technology/climate-change/drought-forests-and-rangelands). Other USGCRP special reports under development include the
Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2, https://www.carboncyclescience.us/news/federal-register-notice-2nd-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr-2) and the Climate Science Special Report
(CSSR, https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program).
There will be a number of overarching themes and perspectives in
NCA4 that are, in part, responsive to needs and gaps identified in
NCA3. The following are likely to be such themes throughout NCA4:
[cir] NCA4 will attempt to highlight advancements or improvements,
since NCA3, in understanding of the science of human-induced climate
change and the resulting implications for the United States.
[cir] For risks and potential impacts, NCA4 will identify
populations of concern, which was a theme highlighted in The Impacts of
Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (2016).
[cir] Major research needs, key uncertainties, and information gaps
will be identified.
[cir] Current and future risks associated with climate change will
be characterized with quantifiable metrics wherever possible, and with
the needs of multiple audiences in mind.
[cir] Consistent treatment of different timeframes of interest will
be sought throughout NCA4, with emphasis on the near-term (i.e., over
the next few decades) trends and projections to inform adaptation
needs, the long-term (i.e., latter half of this century) projections
that are more scenario dependent, and in some cases timeframes well
past 2100 to indicate legacy effects of the human influence on the
climate and oceans.
Comments are sought on these proposed overarching themes. Additional
suggestions will be reviewed as they relate to the proposed structure
of the report.
What follows is a proposed high-level and draft annotated outline
intended to guide the scope and content for NCA4. Public comments are
sought on all aspects of this draft outline. The proposed outline is
presented here in five parts: (1) Introduction and context for NCA4;
(2) the foundational physical science; (3) human health and welfare,
societal and environmental areas that are vulnerable to a changing
climate; (4) regional analyses within the United States; and (5)
identifying the information needed to support climate change
adaptation, increased resiliency, and risk reduction.
1. Introduction and Context for NCA4
The introductory and context-setting sections of the NCA4 will
describe:
[cir] Context for the NCA4 as noted above, including the NCA's
relation to complementary domestic and international assessment
efforts.
[cir] Advancements in science since NCA3 (2014), as well as any new
approaches or differences in scope relative to NCA3. This information
will include the special assessments completed or in-progress post-
NCA3, in particular those under the auspices of USGCRP (some examples
of these special assessments are provided throughout this notice).
[cir] Changing global and national conditions that influence (1)
drivers of climate change, namely the activities that lead to emissions
and thus the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations; and
(2) resiliency and vulnerabilities, such as demographic change and
economic development.
[cir] The geographic scope (see section 5) and the temporal scope
(e.g., recent historic to next 25 to 100 years) of NCA4. The lexicon
used for the confidence and uncertainty levels associated with key
statements and findings (and accompanying traceable accounts) may be
similar to that used in the recent climate change and human health
assessment (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/documenting-uncertainty).
2. The Foundational Physical Science (Based on the Climate Science
Special Report)
The USGCRP is in the process of developing the Climate Science
Special Report (CSSR). The CSSR will highlight advances in the physical
science of climate change since NCA3 (2014), and will provide the
primary scientific underpinnings and framing for the entire NCA4. The
Federal Register Notice for the CSSR can be found at https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program. To briefly summarize here, it will
generally cover:
[cir] Observations of changes in: Atmospheric composition,
radiative forcing, temperature, precipitation, large-scale climate
modes (e.g., El Nino events), drought, floods and associated hydrologic
events (streamflow, snowpack), sea level rise, ice sheet dynamics,
biogeochemistry of land and marine systems, climate variability, ocean
acidification, extreme storms such as hurricanes, atmospheric rivers,
polar changes including permafrost and land-ice dynamics, and
attribution of
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physical and biophysical processes to human activities.
[cir] Future projections of changes in the aforementioned climate
system processes will be based on modeling results of the Coupled
Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) driven by the emissions
scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in
the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (e.g., http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html). Future projections will include
perspectives on mitigation pathways.
3. Human Health and Welfare, Societal and Environmental Vulnerabilities
to a Changing Climate
This section of NCA4 will provide national-level overviews of
observed and projected future trends and potential effects in key areas
of concern for people and the environment, including human health,
social well being, and natural systems. These same areas will be
addressed to varying degrees in each of the regional sections of the
outline described under Part 4.
Within each of these areas, non-climatic trends (e.g., population
changes) will be briefly discussed in order to set a broader context
within which climate change effects can be understood. Observed and
projected risks, impacts and potential benefits as a result of climate
change will be identified in each of these areas, with quantifiable
metrics wherever possible. The role of extreme events in each area will
be addressed where possible. In addition, potential adaptive measures
to minimize risks will be described for each area, to the extent these
are identified in the published literature.
The GCRA of 1990 requires that the NCA analyze ``the effects of
global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy
production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human
health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.''
In addition to these mandated topics, the following additional
specific areas are proposed for inclusion in NCA4: Effects on tribal
and indigenous communities; coastal effects; ocean acidification and
marine resources; and key international effects, particularly those
that may raise environmental, humanitarian, trade, or security issues
for the United States. Cross-sectoral issues where interactions can
result in significant effects are also being proposed in this section
of NCA4; these potentially include (but are not limited to): The water-
energy-land nexus; the interactions among biodiversity, land use, and
climate; and linkages between air quality and climate.
4. Regional Analyses Within the United States
Under this proposed outline, the regional detail for each of the
areas described in Part 3 above will be placed in this section of the
report. In other words, Part 3 will provide more generalized
information at a national level, whereas Part 4 will go into greater
depth to provide information at sub-national and regional levels.
NCA3 included the following regions of the United States (see
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report#section-1948): Northeast,
Southeast and the Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest,
Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii and Pacific Islands, Oceans and Coasts. The
proposed regional breakout for NCA4 is the same with the exception of
the Great Plains; because that was such a large region, stretching from
the Gulf Coast to the Canadian border, it will be divided into two
regions: Northern and Southern Plains.
In addition to the themes for each area described in Part 3, the
regional sections in Part 4 will also include State-level information
as appropriate and where available, as well as urban and rural case
studies where possible to showcase, with local specificity, climate
trends, potential risks, and resiliency planning.
5. Identifying the Information Needed To Support Climate Change
Adaptation, Increased Resiliency, and Risk Reduction
This part of NCA4 will focus on identifying near-term needs and
opportunities for adaptive measures and resiliency planning in the face
of observed and projected changes in climate, as well as the dependency
of risk and potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
over the longer term. NCA4 is not a policy document, and as such will
not be evaluating policy measures, actions, instruments or mechanisms
to deliver or incentivize either adaptation or mitigation responses at
any level of government. Rather, the intention of this part of NCA4 is
to inform the Nation, and different regions within the Nation, about
near-term adaptation needs over the next few decades that are likely to
persist regardless of emissions pathway, and, over the longer term, the
reduced and/or avoided levels of risks and impacts in the United
States, as a result of different levels of global greenhouse gas
mitigation.
Adaptation needs and opportunities will be drawn from relevant
information from Parts 2, 3 and 4 as outlined above.
In addition to physical metrics of changing risks and potential
impacts over time under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,
analysis of costs of adaptation options and potential impacts (or
avoided impacts) will be included where possible, in part with input
from recent EPA efforts, such as the report on Climate Change in the
United States: Benefits of Global Action (https://www.epa.gov/cira).
Case studies and links to decision-support tools (e.g., the Climate
Resilience Toolkit, http://toolkit.climate.gov) will also be included
here.
Public comments are sought on all of the draft outline sections
described above for NCA4.
Stacy L. Murphy,
Operations Manager/Acting Security Officer.
[FR Doc. 2016-15807 Filed 7-1-16; 8:45 am]
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