[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 83 (Friday, April 29, 2016)]
[Notices]
[Pages 25666-25667]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2016-09860]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
[EPA-ORD-2016-0196; FRL-9945-79-ORD]
Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models To
Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios Version 2
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Notice of public comment period.
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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is announcing a 30-
day public comment period for the draft document titled, ``Updates to
the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated
Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) Version 2'' (EPA/600/R-14/324).
EPA is also announcing that Versar, Inc., an EPA contractor for
external scientific peer review, will select four independent experts
from a pool of eight to conduct a letter peer review of the same draft
document. The document was prepared by the National Center for
Environmental Assessment within EPA's Office of Research and
Development. This document describes the development of version 2 of
Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS), including updates to
data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models.
EPA intends to forward the public comments that are submitted in
accordance with this document to the external peer reviewers for their
consideration during the letter peer review. When finalizing the draft
documents, EPA intends to consider any public comments received in
response to this document. EPA is releasing this draft document for the
purposes of public comment and peer review. This draft document is not
final as described in EPA's information quality guidelines and does not
represent and should not be construed to represent Agency policy or
views.
The draft document is available via the Internet on EPA's Risk Web
page under the Recent Additions at http://www.epa.gov/risk.
DATES: The document will be available on April 29, 2016.
ADDRESSES: The draft report, ``Updates to the Demographic and Spatial
Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios
(ICLUS) Version 2,'' is available primarily via the Internet on the
Ecological Risk Assessment Products and Publications Web page at http://www.epa.gov/risk/ecological-risk-assessment-products-and-publications.
A limited number of paper copies are available from the Information
Management Team, NCEA; telephone: 703-347-8561; facsimile: 703-347-
8691. If you are requesting a paper copy, please provide your name,
mailing address, and the document title.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For information on the public comment
period, contact the ORD Docket at the EPA Headquarters Docket Center;
telephone: 202-566-1752; facsimile: 202-566-9744; or email:
[email protected].
For technical information, contact Britta Bierwagen, NCEA;
telephone: 703-347-8613; facsimile: 703-347-8694; or email:
[email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Information About the Project/Document
The first version of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios
(ICLUS) project modeled population, residential development, and
impervious surface cover changes by decade to the year 2100 consistent
with four global carbon emissions storylines and a baseline. The
current report discusses improvements to the underlying models of ICLUS
that result in version 2 (v2). ICLUS v2 is consistent with updated
global socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs)) and new global climate change model targets (e.g.,
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)). Improvements include the
use of updated population and land use/cover data sets, integration of
changing climate variables within the migration model, inclusion of
transportation network capacity and its increase over time, growth in
commercial and industrial land uses, and the use of population density-
driven demands for growth of residential housing, commercial
development, and industry.
[[Page 25667]]
This report demonstrates the effect of these improvements by comparing
national and regional results among the SSP and RCP combinations used
and the two climate models selected. ICLUS v2 shows differences in
population migration patterns by including climate variables that
change over time rather than ones that are static. Additionally,
changing commercial and industrial land uses can drive patterns of new
urban growth that have consequences for many environmental endpoints.
Therefore, ICLUS v2 is better suited to explore scenarios of climate
change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation options, including the
use of ICLUS v2 outputs in models projecting emissions from developed
land uses and consequences for water and air quality endpoints, as well
as human health.
Dated: April 11, 2016.
Mary A. Ross,
Deputy Director, National Center for Environmental Assessment.
[FR Doc. 2016-09860 Filed 4-28-16; 8:45 am]
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